Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 12/11/2018

Brad Johnson: We’ll get started in a few minutes

Mets fans everywhere: Also, best baseball pun of the offseason is given the Mets track record, they’ll try to trade for Realmuto but end up with some fake muto.

John: Any former MLB players who missed all of 2018 (due to injury or playing out of the country)  that might surprise in 2019? (ala Miles Mikolas or Eric Thames a couple of years ago)

Brad Johnson: I don’t see anybody notable on the radar, heard about a couple return attempts, but they weren’t Thames/Mikolas caliber players

Brad Johnson: Or even Colby Lewis

Brad Johnson: I’m browsing 2017 leaderboards for guys who disappeared in 2018. Corey Seager and Dinelson Lamet spring to mind, although that’s probably not what you meant.

Brad Johnson: Jimmy Nelson

Nelson: Last week you said that in Ottoneu you try to leave 1.5$ for every open spot heading into the draft. So you mean you youll enter the draft needing 10 players and only have 15-20$ left? You never rely on the draft to get anything more than a 1$ flyer?

Brad Johnson: I never say never, but it’s unusual. Last year in FG Staff 1, I paid up for Adam Eaton and Jackie Bradley Jr. to patch a gap in OFer depth.

Brad Johnson: Spending about $30 on those two players wasn’t exactly a good use of cash

Brad Johnson: Would have rather kept a better player for the same amount

Brad Johnson: Which is why I wind up only drafting $1 players every year

Brad Johnson: In FG Staff 2 and Screw Cancer, I only took $1 guys

Jackie: Cutch take and what else will Phillies do this offseason.  Speculate if you must.

Brad Johnson: Let’s knock out Cutch talk

Brad Johnson: Some initial impressions on the contract: seems fair but also much higher than I expected

Brad Johnson: I thought he might go for 1/$20MM or 2/$32MM. Seems to me that if a team had decided to bucket him and Michael Brantley together, waiting out the market should have yielded a one-year contract.

Brad Johnson: Since teams not in the Harper/Machado sweepstakes might want to nail down options before bigger budget teams grow desperate, this might help Brantley (and Pollock)

Brad Johnson: Pollock was always in a good spot as a CF capable guy

Brad Johnson: So, I don’t think Cutch is overpaid based on the performance, but I also think he could have been cheaper

Brad Johnson: On the subject of performance, he hit .253/421/471 in a smallish sample as a Yankee

Brad Johnson: Yankee Stadium is comparable in park factors to Citizen’s Bank

Brad Johnson: On the team fit, the Phillies now have a versatile offense.

Brad Johnson: They have Cutch/Doobie/Quinn as guys who can mix and match at any spot, although you obvious prefer Cutch to not play CF

Brad Johnson: Williams would be a frequently used backup right now. Altherr and Kingery in the mix too. I think based on this roster, Altherr has to crush in Spring Training to make the team. He’s out of options so that means he’s a cut candidate

Brad Johnson: And it’s easier to get Kingery in the lineup without* Altherr around.

Brad Johnson: This doesn’t 100% mean they’re out on Harper, but they basically have to trade Williams if they do sign him. I think it’s likely they’re fed up with the posturing. This gives them excellent leverage in negotiations. They can still afford to field the top bid but no longer are in a position where they’re forced to bid against themselves.

Brad Johnson: We’ll learn more about their plans re: Harper/Machado this week I suspect

Brad Johnson: All four of Happ, Keuchel, Miller, and Britton are rumored to be on the Phillies wish list and could sign by the end of the Meetings. If the Phillies land multiple from this list, I think their offseason shopping will shift to trades and late-winter bargain hunting.

Brad Johnson: Ok, that’s out of the way.

Mets fans everywhere: Please tell me Syndergard to the Yankees / Realmuto to the Mets is not really happening.

Brad Johnson: Next big topic.

Brad Johnson: I find this difficult to swallow as a concept

Brad Johnson: The Amed Rosario scenario seems likelier, and that would cut out the Yankees.

Brad Johnson: I’m filing this under “I’ll believe it when I see it.” That said, I didn’t believe the Cano/Diaz deal would happen.

Brad Johnson: The Mets are not a good catcher away from being a good team, but I guess they could delude themselves into thinking that’s the case.

Joe: 12 team points H2H league with a heavy bias towards pitching (just 8 starts a week, big bonuses for wins and QS), need to keep 2: Gallo $11, Conforto $14, Wheeler $5. Already keeping Correa, Albies, Buehler, and Clevinger.

Brad Johnson: Switching to fantasy a moment…

Brad Johnson: I would punt this decision until later in the offseason. You’re right that these are tough decisions and I do like what we saw from Wheeler. I don’t think you can quit Conforto after his second half, and Gallo can carry a week on the HR front.

Brad Johnson: Though, you’re NOT in a categories league 🙂 so disregard that last note

Brad Johnson: I would need to see how Conforto’s second half production and a Gallo hot streak compare to 1.25 good starts per week

Brad Johnson: What you’ve described leads me to believe there are some tricky quirks to your league

Brad Johnson: Inefficiencies to exploit

Band Wagonen: I wouldn’t trade Syndergaard to the Yanks for anything short of Judge Torres and Realmuto.  These stupid Mets….

NotGraphs Revivalist: Like the Cutch add for Philly, but Segura+McCutchen doesn’t seem to address their defensive disaster very well. Think they will improve defensively through player acquisition or through improved analytics?

Brad Johnson: I dunno about that. Gimme a second to pull up some figures.

Brad Johnson: so Hoskins was a -17.4 defender, Cutch was roughly a zero in a OF corner

Brad Johnson: So that’s nearly a 2 win upgrade there

Brad Johnson: Their shortstops graded out about neutral. Same for Segura.

Brad Johnson: So yea, it’s about a 2 win upgrade on defense

Matt W: So as a Thor dynasty owner, should I be hoping he goes to the Bronx? Better offense around him, better medical staff, but worse ballpark. Also, what are the Mets smocking?

Brad Johnson: We’ll get to other topics a little later, I’m going to focus on these right now since they’re breaking news

Brad Johnson: I don’t think I want Thor in AL East ballparks

Brad Johnson: But you can expect a few extra wins in exchange for more HR

Brad Johnson: CitiField is practically the best venue for pitchers these days

Brad Johnson: Yankees Stadium is on the exact opposite end of the spectrum

Biggy: Isn’t Syndergaard a massive long term health risk?

Brad Johnson: Yea, but you don’t roster an ace for long term purposes anyway

Matt W: Syndergaard is certifiably Good. Rosario still has potential and has shown flashes, but he’s also shown a very severe downside. The Mets’ only good prospect also happens to be a SS, one who should be ready later in the season. So unless they know something about Thor we don’t, why would they want to trade him more than they want to trade Rosario?

Brad Johnson: The aforementioned risks associated with pitching

Brad Johnson: An issue with Thor is that his skill set has gone from unique to commonplace

Brad Johnson: And I think we saw that reflected in his performance last season

Brad Johnson: He has to learn to improve as a pitcher. Unfortunately, he missed most of the time during which his competition (hitters) improved.

Brad Johnson: So he didn’t get to grow with them

Brad Johnson: Rosario is risky, but he’s under club control a long time and hitting prospects rarely disappear due to injury

Joe: Why wouldn’t the Mets keep Thor and just sign Ramos or something?

Brad Johnson: They’re employing a Bold Strategy

Brad Johnson: Which I’m quite certain is how Van Wagonen got the job

Rick Hahn: Cutch to the Phils,  looking like they’ll pursue Manny harder than Bryce. White Sox seem to have a real shot at Harper, no?

Brad Johnson: Definitely. Though it really feels like the Dodgers are trying to figure it out. And it’s going to be hard for the White Sox to beat them if LA is determined

Casper: Dynasty team between contending and rebuilding. Is trading Bum for Devers a fair deal?

Brad Johnson: No, but in the opposite direction. Devers is a far better dynasty asset.

Brad Johnson: Assuming it’s relatively deep

Brad Johnson: If you’re talking 10 team or shallow roster 12 team, then it could favor Bumgarner

Brad Johnson: Though I’d still probably take Devers and hope for the best

the54effect: BoSox rumors about trading Xander all smoke designed to up price on Machado, or you think there is real fire there?

Brad Johnson: I don’t think they’re intentionally messing with the market. I also think this is one of those classic “we never had that conversation” rumors

Thor-nish trade rumors in my sid: 12 team mixed roto.  Pick two to keep: Paxton, springer and Rhys.  Thanks

Brad Johnson: I’d take the hitters

Brad Johnson: I like Paxton a lot though if you’re worried about not having enough pitching. I’d keep Rhys over Springer

the54effect: Is Wander Franco already the sort of hold on to no matter what (unless a great package comes along) type prospect in a keep forever league, or is it too early for that to hold in a short bench dynasty?

Brad Johnson: Hold him at least for this season. There’s still a chance the hype needs to be adjusted downward.

Brad Johnson: But if that doesn’t happen, then you have a monster asset

jobu’s rum: Sticking with SD, does a Cobb/Myers contract swap seem to make some sense? Is Cobb even a viable SP anymore?

Brad Johnson: Not really, Myers is a legit decent player. Cobb flashes viability – kind of like James Shields does at times – but the overall profile is scary

Brad Johnson: More importantly, the Padres have a LOT of pitchers on staff

YankeesFanatic: Miguel Andujar leaving New York??

Brad Johnson: I called this ages ago.

Brad Johnson: Not at all surprised to find his name in the rumor mill

Brad Johnson: He’s not a Yankees-caliber player – at least not long term

Brad Johnson: They’re always going to try to upgrade guys like Andujar. But that presupposes they can land Machado

Not Chris Smith : Hey Brad!  Starting to think about keepers for an early deadline next year.  12 team roto (standard format, weekly lineups), keep 7, $260 budget.  Who are your last 2 keepers between: $25 G. Cole, $29 Blackmon, $5 Villar, $4 Matt Chapman, $4 Tim Anderson?  (my 5 definite-keeps are $34 Betts, $16 JDM, $15 Bryant, $26 Acuna, and $21 Hoskins).

Brad Johnson: That’s… tricky

Brad Johnson: My gut instinct is to go with Cole/Blackmon for the more bankable production then try to re-up the others at cheap rates again. Even if you don’t get those specific players, the stats should be available in a 12-team weekly

Brad Johnson: I do like Chapman quite a bit, but if it’s not an OBP league, the surplus on $4 might be modest.

Brad Johnson: Anderson is the easiest cut for me of that group

Brad Johnson: He walks a tightrope between decent roto contributor and unplayable. Any extended injury-fueled slump would look like .210/.245/.350

Brad Johnson: It was nice to see him run more last season though

Brad Johnson: I haven’t helped much on this one, have I?

Chris: What does a “Build around” mean to you in a fantasy (dynasty) context? Anything beyond being just a stud player?

Brad Johnson: Somebody who can help you dominate one category or contributes at above average rate to everything

Brad Johnson: So yea, pretty much only monster players

Biggy: What do you see McNeils role in Metsland?  3b?

Brad Johnson: Right now, he’s like 20% 2B and as much 3B as he can play without embarrassing the team

Brad Johnson: I don’t think it’s 100% out of the question that he might play 2B with Cano mostly at 1B

Brad Johnson: We don’t know how BVW will direct the on-field guys to handle Smith and Alonso

Brad Johnson: but past history says the Mets will never intentionally figure out when to use a prospect – they have to be forced into it

Matt: I’m trying to keep Goldy at $58, which is 27% of my team salary. It’s a dynasty league, so salaries are generally suppressed, with the exception of studs…last year Scherzer and Stanton only studs available and went to $60 each. I’m not out of my mind trying to keep Goldy, right?

Brad Johnson: No, that sounds plausible. I regularly drop a fifth of my budget on Trout in ottoneu.

Brad Johnson: You should be mentally prepared to pivot if the opportunity presents itself

Rick Hahn: What percentage would you give the White Sox of landing one of Machado/Harper?

Brad Johnson: 20?

Brad Johnson: 25

Brad Johnson: I suspect they’ll basically match the best offer for at least one of them. Whether the player chooses them or another club is another matter

the54effect: What is Tulo in 2019? Tidbit: He is .1 WAR behind Harold Baines in about half as many plate appearances.

Brad Johnson: Tulo is probably done as a fantasy relevant player

Matt: How you feeling about Pivetta next season. Mid rotation help, back of the rotation, or smoldering hot garbage?

Brad Johnson: I think he’s the current version of peak Ricky Nolasco

Brad Johnson: Because of his park and some issues with his fastball quality, I suspect he’ll underperform his FIP/allow a lot of HR

Brad Johnson: But the Ks should be there, along with a decent win total

Matt W: I was mostly joking when I told my wife this the other night, but part of me is convinced that Brodie got the job because he dazzled Jeff Wilpon who wanted a cool, slick friend. Brodie being the smooth operator that he is realized he could exploit the desperate rich kid, and here we are.

Brad Johnson: As good a theory as any 🙂

the54effect: Loved the constitution. I want to drop a friend out of my football league for being very bad (under .500% 6years in a row) and cherry on top, making an egregiously (though, I am trusting, not collusively) bad trade with his BFF. Kicking him out will be fine, but I feel like I should have his replacement vetted and lined up BEFORE pulling the trigger, otherwise it will come off as personal instead of merely competitive. We’re all 30 y/o men. Uh, insight?

Will Smith’s Brother: Did  you know Ricky Nolasco used to sneak around eating pizza at 3am before starts?

Brad Johnson: Wait wha?

Brad Johnson: This feels like some sort of beer and fried chicken story

Krang Bang: Mondesi $4 for Khris Davis $20 OBP dynasty, which side?

Brad Johnson: Depends on league depth

Brad Johnson: Very shallow, Davis

Brad Johnson: All others, Mondesi

Brad Johnson: And if picking Davis, that assumes you need serious HR help and have plenty of SB to spare

Not Chris Smith: Very helpful, actually!  I had Cole + Blackmon penciled in as well as the final two, with the same thoughts as you on the others.  In 12 teamers there’s so much turnover in your last ~10 plus spots, that I’d rather spend more of my budget to keep pricey below market studs + settle for a bunch of $1-$3 back end guys in the draft than find myself stuck hunting for an ace or big bat at auction.  Seems easier to find the next Tim Anderson than rely on him and let a guy like Blackmon loose.

Brad Johnson: Agreed – usually. You know better than me what $25-$30 can buy in your draft. Typically, these sorts of keeper leagues push Blackmon-quality players up to the $40 range on draft day. There might be a value or three on big names, but I don’t like putting my eggs in that basket

Brad Johnson: I’d rather just curse the draft room

Brad Johnson: and know what I have to work with pre-auction

Matt: Does “deep” and “shallow” leagues refer to the pool of non-rostered players available, or the pool of rostered players?

Brad Johnson: Pool of rostered players. So 10-team is shallow, 20-team is deep

Will Smith’s Brother: David Samson has come out with some great tidbits since his contract finally ended w/Miami. He also called Barry Bonds the worst hitting coach he ever worked with. And the infield coach used to call up to the official scorer mid-game to get errors changed to hits to make his infielders look better

Brad Johnson: Barry Bonds’ understanding of hitting is notoriously terrible

Brad Johnson: Paraphrasing an anecdote I only half remember, he was a big believer in keeping the bat head above the ball. Or to put it another way, chopping down on the ball. When somebody pointed out to him that his bat head was actually under the ball (like every hitter), he didn’t believe it. Then when he saw the video, he thought he just took a bad swing

Brad Johnson: Basically every drill he used to do has been since proven to be bad for hitting

Brad Johnson: Guy was just some kind of mutant

Francona : With the lack of 200 + inning starters, how much of a premium is there on the few that are left in roto leagues?

Brad Johnson: This is the greatest challenge of 2019

Brad Johnson: And the decision to choose to overpay for old school elite SP or try to go cheap is going decide a LOT of leagues

Brad Johnson: But here’s the thing, they’re damned pitchers. Even if you pick the right strategy, you can still choose the wrong individuals.

Brad Johnson: Which is why I’ll probably go with the hitter approach in most leagues

Brad Johnson: Looks like I’ll be doing upwards of 20 so I’ll be sure to mix in some SP heavy ones too

Matt: Think Dereck Rodriguez can keep it up? Probably won’t have much in terms of Ks, but a solid innings option to help out ratios is all I need out of him.

Brad Johnson: I think you can probably ask that of him. Helps that he’s in SFG. Hurts that he won’t get wins.

Brad Johnson: Legitimately looks like he MIGHT be one of those guys who outperforms his FIP

the54effect: I just feel like kicking a guy out of a league for not being competitive and making bad trades comes off as less personal if I have a more adept owner lined up to replace him. Like if my girlfriend left me with a plan for a better future or a more successful man or whatever, aw shucks I guess I get it? But if she left me with no plan, no where to sleep and a long winter coming up, it’d be like DAMN SHE PREFERRED ANYTHING TO ANOTHER DAY WITH ME. I don’t want to be like “YOU MY FRIEND ARE A HORRIBLE FANTASY FOOTBALL MANAGER AND ANY RIFF RAFF OFF THE STREET WOULD BE A HUGE UPGRADE OVER YOU.” Even though it’s true.

Brad Johnson: I forgot to answer this one didn’t I

Brad Johnson: Suffered a moment of “ooh shiny”

Brad Johnson: Here’s the thing about this, sounds like you’re basically in a league of buddies

Brad Johnson: You should probably just good-naturedly rag on the guy when you meet up for drinks

Brad Johnson: Most of the leagues I play are meant to be some version of “competitive”

Brad Johnson: So this idea of pushing people out to make the league better holds more water

Brad Johnson: friend leagues tend to be sloppy

Brad Johnson: If you want a competitive league, I would hunt for one with semi-strangers

Will Smith’s Brother: And when Giancarlo Stanton came to him saying he needed help laying off the slider away, Bonds simply responded: “Well, don’t swing at it!”

the54effect: Maybe Barry Bonds was secretly trying to throw everyone else off his scent, teach everyone to be horrible to keep anyone from ever approaching his greatness as a batsman. Maybe with a head that giant you’re playing games within games in your cranium!?

Brad Johnson: Like Arnold Schwarzenegger giving the Wrong Advices –

Steve: NL only league…..Miles Mikolas or Jack Flaherty for 2019?

Brad Johnson: I’ll take Flaherty on upside and Mikolas on floor. I’m not entirely clear on where they’re going ADP-wise yet

Brad Johnson: I avoid that info for as long as possible so I don’t anchor

Pip: Who do you prefer of Brandon Lowe and Jake Bauers? What about Nathaniel Lowe? Seems like a trade is going to have to free up one of those guys.

Brad Johnson: I don’t see any of them as can’t miss MLBers. I’d put the over under of just one of them being a starter caliber player at around 50%

Brad Johnson: long term

Brad Johnson: I’m sure they’ll each have their year or three where they play with some reasonable production

Brad Johnson: A pizza is here so it’s time to wrap it up

PB: Is Alex Reyes a sell in Dynasty? Or do you believe he can stay healthy?

Brad Johnson: That depends on what’s available

Brad Johnson: I’ve shopped him in the league I own him and heard crickets

Brad Johnson: But those guys are big into football so they probably didn’t even open my email

Brad Johnson: If you’re getting paid, it’s not a bad idea to divest into something healthier

Brad Johnson: But I suspect the better value will be to keep Reyes

the54effect: Go to pizza topping?

Brad Johnson: Pepperoni

Brad Johnson: Don’t mess with the classic

Brad Johnson: Everything else is worse

Brad Johnson: Although Mellow Mushroom has a fantastic potato and bacon pizza if you ever feel like blowing $28 on bread and cheese.

Not Chris Smith : Absolutely.  Last year, Rizzo went for $55 I believe (coming off his ‘down’ year) . . . Justin Upton went in the $28-$32 range . . . Darvish went for $38.  Would rather keep Blackmon under $30 and Cole at $25 with those prices.  As you said, it’s never fun to end up fighting with 11 others for the handful of bankable guys left, or for the last guy in a tier.  Last year after most mid-tier closers went for $15-17 (more than i wanted to spend),  I got in a bidding war for Trienen at $23 ($5 less than A. Chapman). . . worked out well in that case, but that was only thanks to the 95% outcome.

Brad Johnson: In that case, Blackmon and Cole seem like easy picks

Matt: Our dynasty roto league ended in a tie the day after we thought the league was over (stupid game 163). Commissioner congratulations sent out and all. We voted that we were all reasonably under the expectation that it was done, and only one of the teams had guys playing. Yahoo! was not counting that day, but CBS was. Did we make the right decision? I’m torn, because while not everyone played 163, not everyone even played 162.

Brad Johnson: That was a bit of a shocker. I’ve never noticed Game 163 be counted in the past, but that doesn’t mean it’s not an established tradition

Brad Johnson: I might just be unobservant

Brad Johnson: That’s one of those things that could be added to a constitution 🙂

Brad Johnson: (see yesterday’s article on constitutions)

Brad Johnson: And on that note, I’m hungry

Brad Johnson: Thanks for playing