Pod vs Steamer — Home Run Downside: A Review

Yesterday, I reviewed the first preseason Pod vs Steamer projections article, beginning with the hitters I projected for home run upside. Today, we’ll flip to the other side, as I review the home run downside guys. Hopefully I perform better than my upside guys!

I highlighted which system was closer…remember the higher the AB/HR rate, the fewer homers. So, this was a slightly better performance, but not very good. Let’s talk specifics.

So obviously David Peralta nearly doubles his HR/FB rate when I project him for downside. He even increased his fly ball rate to the highest mark since his 2014 debut. Both systems were way off though. Much of my downside forecast was due to the newly implemented humidor, which at the time, I had doubted Steamer accounted for. Chase Field was indeed much more pitcher friendly, but amazingly, Peralta posted nearly identical HR/FB rates home and away. At age 30, to boot, this was a real surprising performance.

Wow, almost perfectly nailed Brad Miller’s decline. Steamer clearly factored Miller’s 20%+ HR/FB rate from 2016 far more than I did. Miller hit my projection even while posting a career best fly ball rate, but that’s mostly because he also lost any semblance of contact skills.

Mark Trumbo’s actual mark was closer to Steamer, but it was in the middle and this was more or less a tie. Trumbo has endured a roller coaster ride in his home run rates throughout his career, so after a down 2017, how much would he rebound? Steamer overshot his rebound, I undershot it. However, his HR/FB rate did return to the 20% plateau, but that was offset by a career low FB%. With so many moving parts going into an AB/HR rate, there are several avenues to disappoint or surprise.

Ian Desmond had the season we expected him to have when he first arrived in Colorado in 2017. His HR/FB rate notched a career high, the first time it was above 18.2%. He needed every bit of that too, as he severely struggled to lift balls for the second straight year, posting a fly ball rate more suited for a speedy slap hitter.

In terms of fantasy value, the difference in our Jean Segura projections was negligible. But, it was clear that Steamer expected more of a rebound toward his 2016 outburst, while I was confident that a single digit HR/FB rate was his current talent level. A decline in HR/FB rate was offset by career best strikeout and fly ball rates.

LOL, it figures that Christian Yelich’s name appears here. Clearly this was his motivation to more than double his HR/FB rate and enjoy an MVP-caliber season. Steamer was projecting more of a rebound toward his 2016 HR/FB than I was, and I wonder if they also expected his fly ball rate to take another step up, while I regressed back marginally.

After sitting in the single digits for two straight seasons, Starling Marte’s HR/FB rate rebounded back to the mid-teens, while both his strikeout and fly ball rates were career bests. That was an easy recipe for his first 20 homer season. Since there were career best in multiple places, I’m highly unlikely to forecast another 20 homer season in 2019.

After Evan Longoria’s move to the home run death trap known as AT&T Park, I was surprised that Steamer was projecting an AB/HR rate so much lower than I. Not surprisingly, his home/away splits prove the difficult of the park — he posted just a 6.5% HR/FB rate at home versus 13.6% away. That’s an enormous disparity, especially when considering hitters perform better at home! At age 32, I think this is what he is now and is just a reserve option in shallower mixed leagues. Sad.