Pod vs Steamer — Home Run Upside: A Review

A fun activity for me each preseason is comparing my Pod Projections to the Steamer projections. While the forecasts in various categories for most players are negligible, of course there are some that are wildly different. One comparison I made was looking at which hitters I projected for more homers than Steamer. However, rather than compare the raw home run total, which is greatly influenced by the at-bat projection, I computed each projection’s AB/HR ratio. So let’s find out how the guys I identified as having AB/HR upside performed.

I highlighted the projection that was closest. This was not a good showing for me. But most of the Steamer “wins” were as a result of both of us being waaaaay off because of a disappointing season. Let’s discuss the specifics.

Colin Moran joined the fly ball revolution while toiling away at Triple-A in 2017 and enjoyed a power spike, posting career bests in both FB% (40.2%) and HR/FB (18.2%). Since we were aware of actual mechanical adjustments, it seemed as if this newfound power was for real, at least most of it. Alas, his HR/FB rate ended up below the league average as if the 2017 adjustments never even happened. More surprisingly, those fly ball gains completely disappeared, as his FB% dropped just below 30%. That likely had more of an effect on his AB/HR than the decline in HR/FB rate.

Chris Taylor was a good test for projection systems, coming out of nowhere for a breakout 2017 season. Obviously, every projection was going to forecast regression, but how much? He was one of the two I actually got right and I almost nailed it. He was another swing changer, but unlike for Moran, most of Taylor’s gains stuck.

Wow, I was completely wrong on James McCann, though Steamer wasn’t much better. I really liked him as a second catcher, but his power completely cratered. With a wOBA above .300 just once, he might not find another full-time job.

Would it be fair to give Elvis Andrus a mulligan? He missed over two months with a fractured right elbow, and you would have to believe that’s going to affect his performance at the plate upon return! Then again, his HR/FB rate regressed right back to his pre-2017 days, so it’s difficult to determine how much the injury affected him and how much of it was just regression to his previous mean. The much larger concern is the sudden lack of stolen base prowess. He has stolen at least 21 bases every single season of his career, yet swiped just five this season. If the power is gone, he’ll need to return to base thievery to just remain fantasy relevant.

Welp, this was clearly published before Jorge Bonifacio was handed an 80 game suspension for PED use. After finally returning in the second half, all his skills held up well…except his power. Was it the lack of PEDs to blame? Who knows.

There was a lot going on in the Matt Carpenter projection — the question was how much of his FB% spike he would maintain and could we blame some of his 2017 HR/FB decline on playing through injury. I answered that he would maintain some of his FB% gains and he should rebound a bit with better health. I was right. Steamer is unaware of injury and is much more hesitant to project a dramatic change in FB% skills.

I just reviewed my Whit Merrifield projection yesterday and the explanation here is that he traded fly balls for line drives, which is usually going to hamper anyone’s home run total.

Injuries strike again, as Aaron Judge missed a month and a half with a fractured wrist. But the primary reason for missing my AB/HR projection was a surprising drop in FB%. Since his Triple-A stint in 2016, his FB% had never fallen below 42.9%. Yet this year, he posted just a 35% mark. Since I think his FB% will rebound at least somewhat, he might find himself again on my HR upside list.

So Joey Gallo marginally missed my inflated FB% projection and barely missed my HR/FB rate. It was mostly due to the FB% miss, which I blame myself since there’s far more downside from a 54% mark than upside. Odds are he was going to lose more than just the percentage point I forecasted.