Prospect Stock Watch: Tatis Jr., Guerrero Jr., Lewis, Kopech

The Prospect Stock Watch is back for another year. The first month of baseball is dwindling down and with all the weather cancellations it’s really flown by. Let’s have a look at some of the prospects that are off to either fast or slow starts to the year.

Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, Padres: San Diego has been extremely aggressive with this 19-year-old star-in-the-making. He’s shown uncanny in-game power for a teenager and went deep 22 times last year as an 18-year-old hitter in A-ball. The jump to double-A has been quite the challenge for him, though. He appeared at that level last year for 14 games and posted a strikeout rate of 30%. This year… another 14 games so far and another strikeout rate at 30%. Perhaps just as alarming, Tatis Jr.’s walk rate is hovering around a minuscule 2.5%. And he’s even stopped running. After stealing 29 bases a year ago, he has yet to even make an attempt to run. In hindsight, the decision to skip him over high-A ball may have been a mistake. But the good news is that he’s still young, still loaded with tools and should eventually rebound. It just might take him another two to three months to really adjust to the more advanced pitching in the upper levels of the minors.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Blue Jays: I guess I can’t talk about the one stud 19-year-old hitter at double-A without addressing the other one. Things have gone a lot easier for the Jays prospect than they have for the Padres phenom. Guerrero Jr. is hitting .321 through 14 (chilly) games — and even has more walks than strikeouts at 6-5 (which is a trend throughout his career). He’s even showing signs of growing into his raw power with a slugging percentage well above .500. With the suddenly injury prone Josh Donaldson all but gone at season’s end via free agency, this young prospect may actually be ready to assume the third base job for the Jays at the age of 20. Heck, he may even get a cup of coffee in The Show this August or September if he keeps producing and stays healthy. And the closest comp I can think of for Guerrero Jr. is the late, great Tony Gwynn for the incredibly natural feel for hitting, the amazing eye, and the ability to put bat to ball with ease.

Royce Lewis, SS, Twins: Hey, a guy that makes the two juniors above look old! Just 18, Lewis is playing in low-A ball and holding his own — which should not be a huge shock considering he was the first overall pick in the 2017 amateur draft. With lots of room to still fill out, this young shortstop doesn’t hit for much pop right now but he’s done nothing but produce hits. And after a 4-for-4 game on Saturday, he’s hitting .323 with a BB-K of 4-3 in eight games. He’s also stolen two bases. Power likely won’t be a huge part of his game but he could eventually grow into 15 homer pop to go along with his ability to steal 20-30 bases. With his natural feel for hitting, Lewis looks like a stud.

Michael Kopech, RHP, White Sox: Looking at pitchers this early is dangerous due to the incredibly small sample size, but hey why not? Kopech came over to the White Sox from the Red Sox in the Chris Sale deal and this might go down as one of those trades that helped everyone involved. Yoan Moncada was widely considered the key to the deal but Kopech is quickly showing that he might be the real steal. And I’ll admit, I probably have to eat some crow here as I thought he might end up in the bullpen. But he’s advanced extremely well in the past 12-15 months with more command and better secondary offerings. He’s looked good in the early going with 21 strikeouts and just five walks in 15 innings. Even better, he has yet to allow a home run and has been inducing ground balls at a higher-than-average rate. He could give the battered White Sox rotation some relief during the summer months.

*Since I’m writing about the White Sox, I want to send positive thoughts to the Farquhar family after the tragedy that struck White Sox reliever Danny Farquhar. I’ve written a lot of words about him in the past 10 years and was always a big fan of his. I even had him in the Blue Jays Top 10 prospects list way back in 2010.