Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 36.1 | 4 | 0 | 29.7% | 4.3% | 1.74 | 2.17 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 19.2 | 28.6 | 164.1 | 12 | 7 | 28.3% | 5.8% | 2.90 | 2.83 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 59.8 | 90.3 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 41.1 | 3 | 4 | 28.7% | 4.7% | 3.50 | 2.92 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 12.5 | 19.7 | 197.1 | 14 | 12 | 26.4% | 6.4% | 3.38 | 3.27 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 60.1 | 87.0 |
| 3 | George Kirby | 38.0 | 3 | 2 | 26.3% | 2.6% | 3.78 | 2.06 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 10.1 | 20.5 | 189.0 | 13 | 10 | 23.7% | 3.6% | 3.47 | 3.05 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 52.9 | 83.4 |
| 4 | Corbin Burnes | 41.0 | 3 | 1 | 25.8% | 5.7% | 2.63 | 3.69 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 15.6 | 19.3 | 197.0 | 13 | 8 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 3.38 | 3.40 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 58.5 | 82.7 |
| 5 | Logan Gilbert | 40.0 | 2 | 0 | 29.3% | 6.0% | 2.03 | 3.23 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 17.4 | 23.0 | 194.0 | 11 | 8 | 24.9% | 6.0% | 3.25 | 3.51 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 57.6 | 78.9 |
| 6 | Framber Valdez | 17.0 | 1 | 0 | 23.5% | 8.8% | 2.63 | 2.67 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 6.2 | 9.6 | 164.0 | 12 | 6 | 23.1% | 8.1% | 3.24 | 3.36 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 50.8 | 71.5 |
| 7 | Pablo López | 31.1 | 2 | 2 | 29.4% | 5.6% | 4.90 | 3.94 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 183.1 | 11 | 9 | 27.6% | 6.2% | 3.78 | 3.45 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 46.4 | 67.7 |
| 8 | Tanner Houck | 45.0 | 3 | 3 | 25.4% | 3.9% | 2.20 | 2.05 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 19.1 | 31.4 | 162.0 | 11 | 10 | 24.0% | 6.6% | 3.55 | 3.20 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 44.3 | 67.7 |
| 9 | Joe Ryan | 34.1 | 1 | 1 | 29.5% | 3.6% | 3.42 | 2.78 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 9.2 | 15.7 | 176.1 | 10 | 9 | 27.8% | 5.7% | 3.68 | 3.40 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 46.1 | 67.7 |
| 10 | Zach Eflin | 41.0 | 1 | 4 | 21.1% | 2.3% | 4.17 | 3.65 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 6.1 | 10.0 | 183.0 | 11 | 11 | 22.7% | 3.6% | 3.69 | 3.42 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 44.6 | 66.5 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 36.1 | 4 | 0 | 29.7% | 4.3% | 1.74 | 2.17 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 19.2 | 28.6 | 164.1 | 12 | 7 | 28.3% | 5.8% | 2.90 | 2.83 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 59.8 | 90.3 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 41.1 | 3 | 4 | 28.7% | 4.7% | 3.50 | 2.92 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 12.5 | 19.7 | 197.1 | 14 | 12 | 26.4% | 6.4% | 3.38 | 3.27 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 60.1 | 87.0 |
| 3 | George Kirby | 38.0 | 3 | 2 | 26.3% | 2.6% | 3.78 | 2.06 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 10.1 | 20.5 | 189.0 | 13 | 10 | 23.7% | 3.6% | 3.47 | 3.05 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 52.9 | 83.4 |
| 4 | Corbin Burnes | 41.0 | 3 | 1 | 25.8% | 5.7% | 2.63 | 3.69 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 15.6 | 19.3 | 197.0 | 13 | 8 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 3.38 | 3.40 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 58.5 | 82.7 |
| 5 | Logan Gilbert | 40.0 | 2 | 0 | 29.3% | 6.0% | 2.03 | 3.23 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 17.4 | 23.0 | 194.0 | 11 | 8 | 24.9% | 6.0% | 3.25 | 3.51 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 57.6 | 78.9 |
| 6 | Framber Valdez | 17.0 | 1 | 0 | 23.5% | 8.8% | 2.63 | 2.67 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 6.2 | 9.6 | 164.0 | 12 | 6 | 23.1% | 8.1% | 3.24 | 3.36 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 50.8 | 71.5 |
| 7 | Pablo López | 31.1 | 2 | 2 | 29.4% | 5.6% | 4.90 | 3.94 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 183.1 | 11 | 9 | 27.6% | 6.2% | 3.78 | 3.45 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 46.4 | 67.7 |
| 8 | Tanner Houck | 45.0 | 3 | 3 | 25.4% | 3.9% | 2.20 | 2.05 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 19.1 | 31.4 | 162.0 | 11 | 10 | 24.0% | 6.6% | 3.55 | 3.20 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 44.3 | 67.7 |
| 9 | Joe Ryan | 34.1 | 1 | 1 | 29.5% | 3.6% | 3.42 | 2.78 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 9.2 | 15.7 | 176.1 | 10 | 9 | 27.8% | 5.7% | 3.68 | 3.40 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 46.1 | 67.7 |
| 10 | Zach Eflin | 41.0 | 1 | 4 | 21.1% | 2.3% | 4.17 | 3.65 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 6.1 | 10.0 | 183.0 | 11 | 11 | 22.7% | 3.6% | 3.69 | 3.42 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 44.6 | 66.5 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 42.0 | 3 | 3 | 30.6% | 7.1% | 1.92 | 2.59 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 20.2 | 29.2 | 197.0 | 13 | 10 | 26.3% | 6.5% | 3.15 | 3.10 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 63.8 | 94.4 |
| 2 | Logan Webb | 42.0 | 3 | 2 | 17.1% | 5.7% | 2.99 | 2.80 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 13.0 | 21.0 | 202.0 | 14 | 10 | 19.8% | 5.5% | 3.34 | 3.11 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 56.7 | 88.1 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 43.0 | 5 | 1 | 31.5% | 7.1% | 2.72 | 2.72 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 18.8 | 27.3 | 167.0 | 15 | 6 | 31.0% | 7.4% | 3.18 | 3.11 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 60.5 | 86.3 |
| 4 | Sonny Gray | 30.0 | 4 | 1 | 33.3% | 4.4% | 0.90 | 1.54 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 19.9 | 29.7 | 171.0 | 13 | 7 | 24.8% | 6.8% | 3.00 | 3.19 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 59.0 | 83.9 |
| 5 | Dylan Cease | 42.0 | 4 | 2 | 29.8% | 8.7% | 2.57 | 2.47 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 17.8 | 27.3 | 180.0 | 13 | 9 | 29.0% | 9.6% | 3.30 | 3.24 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 58.5 | 83.8 |
| 6 | Shota Imanaga | 34.1 | 5 | 0 | 26.5% | 3.0% | 0.79 | 2.20 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 22.6 | 31.3 | 169.1 | 13 | 6 | 25.5% | 5.6% | 3.03 | 3.21 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 58.3 | 82.6 |
| 7 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 34.0 | 3 | 1 | 30.0% | 5.7% | 2.91 | 2.61 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 13.2 | 20.4 | 175.0 | 14 | 7 | 27.0% | 5.9% | 3.50 | 3.32 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 52.7 | 75.6 |
| 8 | Ranger Suárez | 41.0 | 5 | 0 | 27.8% | 3.5% | 1.32 | 2.57 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 23.5 | 32.3 | 173.0 | 13 | 7 | 22.3% | 6.9% | 3.17 | 3.52 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 54.3 | 73.1 |
| 9 | Chris Sale | 36.1 | 4 | 1 | 29.0% | 4.8% | 3.48 | 3.00 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 12.3 | 18.3 | 158.1 | 13 | 6 | 29.3% | 6.3% | 3.53 | 3.24 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 49.1 | 71.2 |
| 10 | Freddy Peralta | 33.1 | 3 | 0 | 34.1% | 6.8% | 3.25 | 3.16 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 12.1 | 17.0 | 164.1 | 12 | 7 | 30.3% | 8.2% | 3.51 | 3.44 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 50.5 | 69.9 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 42.0 | 3 | 3 | 30.6% | 7.1% | 1.92 | 2.59 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 20.2 | 29.2 | 197.0 | 13 | 10 | 26.3% | 6.5% | 3.15 | 3.10 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 63.8 | 94.4 |
| 2 | Logan Webb | 42.0 | 3 | 2 | 17.1% | 5.7% | 2.99 | 2.80 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 13.0 | 21.0 | 202.0 | 14 | 10 | 19.8% | 5.5% | 3.34 | 3.11 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 56.7 | 88.1 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 43.0 | 5 | 1 | 31.5% | 7.1% | 2.72 | 2.72 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 18.8 | 27.3 | 167.0 | 15 | 6 | 31.0% | 7.4% | 3.18 | 3.11 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 60.5 | 86.3 |
| 4 | Sonny Gray | 30.0 | 4 | 1 | 33.3% | 4.4% | 0.90 | 1.54 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 19.9 | 29.7 | 171.0 | 13 | 7 | 24.8% | 6.8% | 3.00 | 3.19 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 59.0 | 83.9 |
| 5 | Dylan Cease | 42.0 | 4 | 2 | 29.8% | 8.7% | 2.57 | 2.47 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 17.8 | 27.3 | 180.0 | 13 | 9 | 29.0% | 9.6% | 3.30 | 3.24 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 58.5 | 83.8 |
| 6 | Shota Imanaga | 34.1 | 5 | 0 | 26.5% | 3.0% | 0.79 | 2.20 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 22.6 | 31.3 | 169.1 | 13 | 6 | 25.5% | 5.6% | 3.03 | 3.21 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 58.3 | 82.6 |
| 7 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 34.0 | 3 | 1 | 30.0% | 5.7% | 2.91 | 2.61 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 13.2 | 20.4 | 175.0 | 14 | 7 | 27.0% | 5.9% | 3.50 | 3.32 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 52.7 | 75.6 |
| 8 | Ranger Suárez | 41.0 | 5 | 0 | 27.8% | 3.5% | 1.32 | 2.57 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 23.5 | 32.3 | 173.0 | 13 | 7 | 22.3% | 6.9% | 3.17 | 3.52 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 54.3 | 73.1 |
| 9 | Chris Sale | 36.1 | 4 | 1 | 29.0% | 4.8% | 3.48 | 3.00 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 12.3 | 18.3 | 158.1 | 13 | 6 | 29.3% | 6.3% | 3.53 | 3.24 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 49.1 | 71.2 |
| 10 | Freddy Peralta | 33.1 | 3 | 0 | 34.1% | 6.8% | 3.25 | 3.16 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 12.1 | 17.0 | 164.1 | 12 | 7 | 30.3% | 8.2% | 3.51 | 3.44 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 50.5 | 69.9 |
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