Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 49.0 | 5 | 0 | 31.6% | 4.2% | 2.02 | 2.01 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 24.5 | 38.0 | 169.0 | 13 | 7 | 29.3% | 5.9% | 3.04 | 2.80 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 60.3 | 92.2 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 54.0 | 4 | 5 | 29.0% | 5.0% | 3.33 | 3.04 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 17.4 | 26.2 | 201.0 | 14 | 12 | 26.8% | 6.7% | 3.49 | 3.37 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 58.5 | 83.7 |
| 3 | Corbin Burnes | 53.1 | 3 | 2 | 23.3% | 6.7% | 2.71 | 3.53 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 18.5 | 24.2 | 202.1 | 12 | 9 | 25.6% | 7.2% | 3.34 | 3.50 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 59.1 | 81.7 |
| 4 | Pablo López | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 28.7% | 4.0% | 3.95 | 3.16 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 12.8 | 20.3 | 196.0 | 14 | 10 | 27.5% | 5.8% | 3.63 | 3.29 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 55.0 | 81.4 |
| 5 | George Kirby | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 25.1% | 2.5% | 3.59 | 2.86 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 14.1 | 23.3 | 193.0 | 14 | 10 | 23.9% | 3.3% | 3.59 | 3.20 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 52.1 | 80.1 |
| 6 | Framber Valdez | 36.1 | 3 | 1 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 2.98 | 3.28 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 12.2 | 17.1 | 172.1 | 13 | 7 | 23.4% | 7.7% | 3.29 | 3.37 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 52.8 | 74.5 |
| 7 | Kevin Gausman | 36.0 | 2 | 3 | 22.6% | 6.1% | 4.99 | 3.78 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 180.0 | 12 | 10 | 27.4% | 6.4% | 3.75 | 3.22 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 47.5 | 73.1 |
| 8 | Logan Gilbert | 58.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.09 | 3.51 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 24.6 | 199.1 | 12 | 9 | 25.3% | 6.3% | 3.61 | 3.66 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 51.8 | 70.3 |
| 9 | Tanner Houck | 58.0 | 3 | 5 | 24.3% | 4.7% | 2.17 | 2.20 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 23.7 | 38.5 | 168.0 | 10 | 12 | 22.7% | 7.2% | 3.54 | 3.42 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 44.0 | 64.2 |
| 10 | Zach Eflin | 53.0 | 3 | 4 | 18.6% | 1.8% | 3.91 | 3.81 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 10.6 | 14.6 | 183.0 | 12 | 11 | 22.4% | 3.6% | 3.74 | 3.52 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 44.2 | 64.1 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 49.0 | 5 | 0 | 31.6% | 4.2% | 2.02 | 2.01 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 24.5 | 38.0 | 169.0 | 13 | 7 | 29.3% | 5.9% | 3.04 | 2.80 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 60.3 | 92.2 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 54.0 | 4 | 5 | 29.0% | 5.0% | 3.33 | 3.04 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 17.4 | 26.2 | 201.0 | 14 | 12 | 26.8% | 6.7% | 3.49 | 3.37 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 58.5 | 83.7 |
| 3 | Corbin Burnes | 53.1 | 3 | 2 | 23.3% | 6.7% | 2.71 | 3.53 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 18.5 | 24.2 | 202.1 | 12 | 9 | 25.6% | 7.2% | 3.34 | 3.50 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 59.1 | 81.7 |
| 4 | Pablo López | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 28.7% | 4.0% | 3.95 | 3.16 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 12.8 | 20.3 | 196.0 | 14 | 10 | 27.5% | 5.8% | 3.63 | 3.29 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 55.0 | 81.4 |
| 5 | George Kirby | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 25.1% | 2.5% | 3.59 | 2.86 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 14.1 | 23.3 | 193.0 | 14 | 10 | 23.9% | 3.3% | 3.59 | 3.20 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 52.1 | 80.1 |
| 6 | Framber Valdez | 36.1 | 3 | 1 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 2.98 | 3.28 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 12.2 | 17.1 | 172.1 | 13 | 7 | 23.4% | 7.7% | 3.29 | 3.37 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 52.8 | 74.5 |
| 7 | Kevin Gausman | 36.0 | 2 | 3 | 22.6% | 6.1% | 4.99 | 3.78 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 180.0 | 12 | 10 | 27.4% | 6.4% | 3.75 | 3.22 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 47.5 | 73.1 |
| 8 | Logan Gilbert | 58.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.09 | 3.51 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 24.6 | 199.1 | 12 | 9 | 25.3% | 6.3% | 3.61 | 3.66 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 51.8 | 70.3 |
| 9 | Tanner Houck | 58.0 | 3 | 5 | 24.3% | 4.7% | 2.17 | 2.20 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 23.7 | 38.5 | 168.0 | 10 | 12 | 22.7% | 7.2% | 3.54 | 3.42 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 44.0 | 64.2 |
| 10 | Zach Eflin | 53.0 | 3 | 4 | 18.6% | 1.8% | 3.91 | 3.81 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 10.6 | 14.6 | 183.0 | 12 | 11 | 22.4% | 3.6% | 3.74 | 3.52 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 44.2 | 64.1 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 53.0 | 4 | 3 | 30.0% | 7.4% | 2.54 | 2.72 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 22.0 | 32.6 | 199.0 | 14 | 9 | 26.9% | 6.2% | 3.25 | 3.13 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 63.2 | 93.5 |
| 2 | Logan Webb | 59.0 | 4 | 4 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 2.93 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 28.6 | 209.0 | 13 | 12 | 20.9% | 5.7% | 3.31 | 3.07 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 58.6 | 91.8 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 62.0 | 6 | 2 | 33.8% | 6.7% | 2.90 | 2.53 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 25.1 | 38.6 | 175.0 | 15 | 7 | 32.3% | 7.3% | 3.29 | 3.02 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 60.9 | 89.6 |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 55.0 | 5 | 3 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 2.45 | 2.33 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 24.3 | 37.5 | 181.0 | 13 | 9 | 29.1% | 9.5% | 3.43 | 3.36 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 56.0 | 78.8 |
| 5 | Ranger Suárez | 59.0 | 8 | 0 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 1.37 | 2.69 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 34.3 | 46.2 | 174.0 | 15 | 6 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.10 | 3.49 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 58.0 | 77.5 |
| 6 | Shota Imanaga | 46.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.9% | 4.4% | 0.97 | 2.27 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 28.2 | 39.6 | 167.1 | 12 | 6 | 25.3% | 6.1% | 3.07 | 3.35 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 55.9 | 77.3 |
| 7 | Chris Sale | 49.1 | 6 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.1% | 2.56 | 2.42 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 22.7 | 34.0 | 161.1 | 14 | 7 | 29.5% | 6.1% | 3.41 | 3.22 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 52.9 | 75.8 |
| 8 | Aaron Nola | 58.0 | 5 | 2 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 3.10 | 3.56 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 19.5 | 25.5 | 204.0 | 14 | 9 | 25.3% | 5.6% | 3.66 | 3.55 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 53.8 | 75.4 |
| 9 | Zac Gallen | 44.0 | 5 | 2 | 25.3% | 7.9% | 2.86 | 3.57 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 17.5 | 22.0 | 183.0 | 14 | 8 | 25.1% | 6.9% | 3.49 | 3.52 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 53.3 | 73.2 |
| 10 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 47.1 | 4 | 1 | 27.5% | 5.2% | 3.24 | 3.22 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 15.9 | 22.6 | 176.1 | 13 | 7 | 26.6% | 6.1% | 3.58 | 3.35 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 50.2 | 72.8 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 53.0 | 4 | 3 | 30.0% | 7.4% | 2.54 | 2.72 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 22.0 | 32.6 | 199.0 | 14 | 9 | 26.9% | 6.2% | 3.25 | 3.13 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 63.2 | 93.5 |
| 2 | Logan Webb | 59.0 | 4 | 4 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 2.93 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 28.6 | 209.0 | 13 | 12 | 20.9% | 5.7% | 3.31 | 3.07 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 58.6 | 91.8 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 62.0 | 6 | 2 | 33.8% | 6.7% | 2.90 | 2.53 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 25.1 | 38.6 | 175.0 | 15 | 7 | 32.3% | 7.3% | 3.29 | 3.02 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 60.9 | 89.6 |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 55.0 | 5 | 3 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 2.45 | 2.33 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 24.3 | 37.5 | 181.0 | 13 | 9 | 29.1% | 9.5% | 3.43 | 3.36 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 56.0 | 78.8 |
| 5 | Ranger Suárez | 59.0 | 8 | 0 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 1.37 | 2.69 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 34.3 | 46.2 | 174.0 | 15 | 6 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.10 | 3.49 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 58.0 | 77.5 |
| 6 | Shota Imanaga | 46.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.9% | 4.4% | 0.97 | 2.27 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 28.2 | 39.6 | 167.1 | 12 | 6 | 25.3% | 6.1% | 3.07 | 3.35 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 55.9 | 77.3 |
| 7 | Chris Sale | 49.1 | 6 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.1% | 2.56 | 2.42 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 22.7 | 34.0 | 161.1 | 14 | 7 | 29.5% | 6.1% | 3.41 | 3.22 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 52.9 | 75.8 |
| 8 | Aaron Nola | 58.0 | 5 | 2 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 3.10 | 3.56 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 19.5 | 25.5 | 204.0 | 14 | 9 | 25.3% | 5.6% | 3.66 | 3.55 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 53.8 | 75.4 |
| 9 | Zac Gallen | 44.0 | 5 | 2 | 25.3% | 7.9% | 2.86 | 3.57 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 17.5 | 22.0 | 183.0 | 14 | 8 | 25.1% | 6.9% | 3.49 | 3.52 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 53.3 | 73.2 |
| 10 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 47.1 | 4 | 1 | 27.5% | 5.2% | 3.24 | 3.22 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 15.9 | 22.6 | 176.1 | 13 | 7 | 26.6% | 6.1% | 3.58 | 3.35 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 50.2 | 72.8 |
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