As explained in the overview post, here, this is part of a series looking at the best and worst defensive performers over the past three combined seasons. Rankings are done by adding a player's UZR with his aggregate positional adjustment so as to level the playing field with regards to difficulty. Essentially, it's removing the grading curve.

Previously covered:
5th, Ryan Zimmerman 43.7 runs above average.
4th, Omar Vizquel 45.8 runs above average.
3rd, J.J. Hardy 48.7 runs above average.

Tonight, the second best player from 2007-9: OF Franklin Gutierrez.

Gutierrez only got in a half-season in 2007 and three-quarters of a season in 2008. None of that mattered thanks to his outrageous 2009 season. Not to dismiss 2007 or 2008 as irrelevant. They certainly pointed out how good with the glove Gutierrez was and lend us some additional credence for the ridiculous 2009 figure. In 2007, Gutierrez posted a +1.0 UZR for every 70 innings fielded. In 2008, that ratio was one run for every 45 innings. That actually fell to one run for every 47 innings this past season, but that it was accomplished over a full season and in center field rather than right makes it all the more impressive.

To try and put into context just how amazing Franklin Gutierrez's 2009 season was, here are two figures. First, his combined 30.9 runs in 2009 was the best in baseball by 5.5 runs. His defense was worth half a win more than anyone else's. Furthermore, the 30.9 was the highest individual season mark in the entire 2007-9 sample. And that 30.9 figure, taken alone would have been good enough for 27th on our three-year list.

Simply by taking the field and playing defense, Gutierrez totaled over five wins of value. That he added some value with his bat, as a right-handed hitter in Safeco Field no less, was pure cherry-flavored gravy atop the ice cream sundae of awesome that was Gutierrez's 2009.

And as historic as that season was, and as great as that three-year period was, it wasn't enough to make Gutierrez our top ranked fielder from 2007-9. Edging him out by just over a run per season is the next profile.

When we tell our kids about Randy Johnson, we're going to start with the height, the hair, and the velocity. In his prime, he regularly threw 100 MPH fastballs with varying amounts of command, making him one of the most intimidating pitchers in the history of the game. At 46, he's seen his fastball desert him, as the guy who used to throw harder than anyone else now has a fastball that averages below 90 MPH. Here's a look at how his fastball velocity has decreased since 2002.



There's a couple of precipitous drops in there, as he's lost 5 MPH off of his heater in the last eight years. As he's battled injuries the last few years, the decline has become rapid. Time has caught up with the Big Unit, and his fastball is now a below average pitch.

However, Johnson's still racking up the strikeouts, because the fastball has never been his out pitch. His slider has been the one that he's leaned on when he wants to put a hitter away, snapping off a nasty breaking ball that eats lefties alive and even gives problems to right-handed hitters. For whatever reason, that slider just refuses to age.



He lost velocity on it from 2002 to 2003, but since then, it's been constant at around 84.5 MPH. Even as age has eaten away at his fastball, the slider has held its ground, and could still be described as a power breaking ball. And it's that pitch that allows him to still put hitters away when he needs to.

Johnson may choose to hang up his spikes and walk away. As a 46-year-old free agent with a long line of health problems, he's got some incentives to retire. But if he decides to come back for one more year, he's still got a major league out pitch. For reasons that I certainly can't explain, his slider just refuses to age as his fastball has.

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams' Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

Chicago White Sox

The Graduate: Gordon Beckham, SS/3B
Despite beginning '09 in double-A, Beckham made a solid run at the Rookie of the Year award in the American League. The shortstop-turned-third baseman hit .270/.347/.460 with an ISO of .190 in 378 at-bats. The right-handed hitter showed a respectable walk rate at 9.8 BB% and a solid strikeout rate at 17.2 K%. Impressively, he did a nice job handling breaking balls as a rookie. Beckham struggled a little bit in the field at third base, but he showed good value with his bat and posted a 2.1 WAR. He could move back to shortstop in 2010.

The Riser: Santos Rodriguez, LHP
Obtained from the Braves in the Javier Vazquez deal, Rodriguez could turn out to be a steal. The hard-throwing reliever has a 90-95 mph fastball, as well as a slider and change-up. In '09, he allowed just 18 hits in 27 innings of work in rookie ball. The 21-year-old was old for the league but he got three games of experience in low-A ball before the year ended. He needs to improve his control after posting a walk rate of 5.67 BB/9 but his strikeout rate was excellent at 14.00 K/9.

The Tumbler: John Shelby Jr., OF
A former infielder, Shelby has made a successful conversion to the outfield but his bat has taken a step back. He hit just .243/.323/.402 in 428 double-A at-bats. He did show some power with an ISO of .159 (down from .215 in '08). Shelby Jr. also has some speed and he swiped 30 bases in 39 attempts. He made some strides in his walk rate, which rose from 4.7 to 10.3 BB%. It wasn't a terrible year for Shelby Jr. but he took hits in both his power and his on-base numbers; he needs to get on-base more consistently to take advantage of his speed. At 24 years of age, time is not on his side.

The '10 Sleeper: Brent Morel, 3B
With Beckham playing the hot corner in the Majors and prospect C.J. Retherford continuing to perform better than expected, the White Sox suddenly have a lot of depth at the position. Toss in Morel and you can begin to forget the disaster that was Josh Fields. The right-handed hitting Morel had a nice year at high-A in '09 by hitting .281/.335/.453 in 481 at-bats. He posted an ISO of .173 and stole 25 bases in 34 attempts, giving hope that he could one day become a 15-15 player at the MLB level. Morel will probably never show 20+ home run power consistently but he could develop into a solid Bill Mueller type third baseman.

Bonus: Aaron Poreda, LHP
In the '08 series, this former No. 1 draft pick was highlighted for a breakout in '09. Instead, the left-hander had an up-and-down year that saw him make his MLB debut and get traded to the San Diego Padres. Poreda struggled with his control in 14 big league games, and posted a walk rate of 8.78 BB/9. Despite pitching as a starter in the minors, all of his appearances came in relief for both the White Sox and Padres. He's probably better suited to working out of the bullpen going forward, in the hopes that he'll become more consistent. It will also allow him to focus on his fastball, which is his best pitch.

If there was one guy who was definitely getting traded this winter, it was J.J. Hardy. The Brewers had turned over their starting shortstop job to Alcides Escobar, their infield is crowded, and Hardy wasn't interested in moving to another position. The only solution was to move him to another team, and that's what the Brewers did today, sending him to Minnesota for Carlos Gomez.

The Twins seem to be betting on Hardy rebounding to the form he showed in 2007 and 2008, when he was a +4 to +5 win player and one of the best shortstops in baseball. His power disappeared and his BABIP went in the tank in 2009, causing his offensive value to fall apart. However, the Twins don't need Hardy to go all the way back to what he was to make this a good deal, because even the 2009 version was a decent player, thanks to his defensive value. Hardy can really pick it at shortstop, and was a +1.4 win player in less than a full season in 2009, even with the offensive problems.

Assuming some bounce back, Hardy should project as something like a +3 win player for 2010, making him a significant value at a salary that should come in around $5 million or so. He's easily worth twice that, and if his offense returns, he could be worth $15 to $20 million to the Twins in each of the next two years.

To acquire Hardy, the Twins gave up Gomez, an outstanding defender in his own right. Milwaukee apparently wanted a premium defender to replace Mike Cameron in center field, but they're taking a pretty big hit offensively in the swap. Gomez strikes out too often to make the slap hitting gig work, and his inability to bunt himself on base in 2009 caused his average to sink to unacceptable levels.

Even with his elite range in the outfield, Gomez is going to have to improve offensively in order to be worth a starting job. With infields taking away the bunt, he's going to have to get himself on base in other ways, because it's nearly impossible to justify starting an outfielder with a .286 career wOBA when you're trying to make the playoffs.

Gomez is still young and will make the league minimum next year, so the Brewers save some cash, but this still strikes me as a very light return on a quality player. Gomez has some potential, but he's a work in progress, and the Brewers aren't really in rebuilding mode. If they go into 2010 with him as their starting CF, they're going to be taking a pretty significant risk.

Big thumbs up to the Twins here, who got better in a hurry. The Brewers had their hands tied a bit due to the logjam at SS, but it's still hard to imagine this is the best they could do.

The J.J. Putz era in New York ended yesterday, as the Mets bought out the final year of Putz's contract. With the last year at 8.6 million dollars and the closer position locked up by Francisco Rodriguez, it is a no-brainer for the Mets to pay the 1 million dollar buyout and avoid locking up a significant sum of money on a questionable set-up man.

How remarkably quickly it seems that one of the potential best 8th and 9th inning combos in baseball has been disassembled. While giving up a seven player package, including major league talent in the form of Aaron Heilman, Jason Vargas, Endy Chavez, and Joe Smith, for a small package centered around an expensive reliever appears to be wrong at a glance, due to the fungibility of those kinds of pitchers, this deal brought things to a whole new level.

To begin with, Putz spent much of 2008 on the DL and did not pitch like the 2 to 3 win relief talent that he showed in 2006 and 2007. Although his fastball velocity hadn't dropped, something was clearly off with his stuff. His BB rate soared and his LD% rose by 3 points. His 3.78 FIP wasn't terrible, but was only worth .6 wins in 46 innings pitched. All things considered, with the fungibility of relievers, Putz's age (31 entering 2009) and an injury in 2008, chances were low that Putz would bring the Mets 13.6 million dollars in value in '09 and '10.

It hit the fan for Putz in 2009. His control problems persisted and his strikeout rate plummeted. Now, as a 32-year old-reliever running a 1.00 K/BB ratio, Putz hits the market again. He just screams reclamation project. It will be interesting to see what team bites.

From the Mets' standpoint, they sunk 6 million dollars and 7 players into acquiring Putz, Jeremy Reed, and Sean Green. The trade has produced 0.1 WAR from Putz, -0.7 WAR Reed, and -.1 WAR from Green. Unless Reed and Green somehow become productive major leaguers, this trade will go down as historically bad for New York.

The Mets bullpen will likely be a focal point for the front office again this winter. We'll find out if they've learned their lesson.

As explained in the overview post, here, this is part of a series looking at the best and worst defensive performers over the past three combined seasons. Rankings are done by adding a player's UZR with his aggregate positional adjustment so as to level the playing field with regards to difficulty. Essentially, it's removing the grading curve.

Previously covered:
5th, Ryan Zimmerman 43.7 runs above average.
4th, Omar Vizquel 45.8 runs above average.

Tonight, the third best player from 2007-9: SS J.J. Hardy.

Hardy's inclusion should not be too much of a surprise. Unlike the previous two profiles, Hardy does not have much in the ways of peaks or valleys in UZR. Instead, he is rather consistent with UZRs -- always in the level a tad more elevated than simply "above average."

Like the other shortstop, Vizquel, however, Hardy's future on this list is murky. His hitting took such a dramatic turn for the worst this past season, from a .355 wOBA in 2008 to a .292 wOBA in 2009, that he lost playing time to Alcides Escobar and was even optioned back to Triple-A. One consequence of that demotion is that Hardy's free agent status was postponed by a year, making him quite a bit more valuable.

Whether he stays with Milwaukee this off season will be seen, but he should make for an attractive trade target, and given that some of his offensive woes can be traced to a poor BABIP, Hardy deserves a starting job somewhere. His defense alone makes him worth his cost, and if his bat returns, so should the four-win seasons that he posted in 2007 and 2008.

At 48.7 runs above average, J.J. Hardy is our last player among the top five that did not eclipse the 50-run marker. Stay tuned for the second-best, and our lone outfielder, tomorrow.

With another Yankees World Championship comes another round of salary cap debate. The Yankees have an infield that costs a gaudy amount and easily make the most revenue of any other team. The idea of implementing a cap limits how much they can spend on free agents or absorb via trades, which seems to make the playing field a bit more even. But there’s a forgotten aspect to all of this: If you limit the Yankees Major League payroll from $200M to $100M (or whatever) without imposing a cap on the amount of money a team can spend on amateur and baseball operations talent, then really you aren’t helping anyone but the Yankees.

Why? Because if you knock that $50M off the Yankees payroll, that doesn’t mean they cannot spend it; instead, it simply means they must reallocate it to another part of the game. Now they can really go over-slot on a consistent basis. Or, if a hard-slotting system is imposed, they can reap the international talent market like none other. Not to mention the amount of front office talent they can add to the fold -- ranging from scouts to quantitative analysis guys to medical staff and so on.

Living off free agency is usually a poor habit to fall into, because when signing a 30 - 32-year-old player, teams are paying for his past performances more than his future performances. By eliminating that practice for the Yankees, they can quickly develop the best farm system, player development, and front office staffs around and still have money to burn. Then, when those young players turn into young stars under a cost efficient umbrella, the Yankees can go out and do their spending thing on the free agent market with a bunch of homegrown studs intact.

You could argue they could do this already, but won’t for whatever reason. Maybe they haven’t realized it, or they would rather bank off the big-time free agents. I don’t know. This may result in fewer wins in the short-run, but a healthier organization in the long-run. Baseball would actually be doing the Yankees a service by saving them from themselves.

Perhaps that’s a wee bit hyperbolic, but the answer to any question about baseball’s competitive nature and balance lies beyond a Major League roster salary cap.

Jeremy Hermida seemed destined for the land of non-tenders as late as a week ago, but not any longer as the Boston Red Sox have acquired the corner outfielder via trade.

Hermida is formerly a top prospect with nearly 2,000 plate appearances in the bigs. Over that time his bat has played slightly above average (a .336 wOBA) while his defense has left much to be desired. The story with Hermida has been his lack of power. Since 2007 – when he first broke onto the scene as a true regular – his ISO has slipped in each season. From .205 to .157 down to .133, the soon-to-be 26-year-old was going the wrong way, even drawing some comparisons to former wunderkind-to-bust Ben Grieve. Fenway park is more receptive to offense – putting it lightly – which should raise Hermida’s offensive production without so much as a true increase in talent.

Barring something unforeseen – like Boston not addressing the left field spot further – Hermida figures to be a bench player for them in 2010 and potentially beyond. That's ssuming he actually starts next season in Boston and isn’t flipped for something else through the off-season.

For their efforts to move Hermida, Florida receives a pair of arms: lefties Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez.

Jones features impressive minor league numbers but has velocity that averages about 87 miles per hour. He’s a fastball/slider guy and 12 innings is far too small of a sample size to say one way or the other, but if his contact rate continues to be around 87% don’t look for him to sit down nearly 10 batters per nine like he did in the minors. He’s better against lefties, as you would expect.

I know next-to-nothing about Alvarez. He was as starter in the system with unimpressive strikeout rates that somehow dipped to four per nine after switching to relief and heading to High-A.

Last year, Bobby Abreu sat around all winter trying to figure out where he was going to play. He apparently didn't want to do that again, as he re-signed with the Angels on the first day of the off-season.

According to Ed Price, the deal is for $9 million a year in 2010 and 2011, with a vesting option for 2012 or a $1 million buyout. The deal guarantees Abreu $19 million over his age 36 and 37 seasons. A few weeks ago, when reports of Abreu turning down a $16 million offer over two years surfaced, I suggested he take it. This deal is a very small premium over that offer, so that's essentially what Abreu did.

The more interesting aspect of this, to me, is to see how aggressive teams and players are about getting deals done before the market officially opens up. Last year, the players who signed quickly ended up escaping the carnage of the collapsing economy - Kyle Lohse and Ryan Dempster came out looking like big winners for taking the money to re-sign rather than shopping themselves around, and Raul Ibanez was the only defensively challenged outfielder to cash in after signing with Philadelphia quickly.

In this scenario, Abreu took an essentially fair offer for the security of not going through another winter freeze out. The Angels have the cash to make deals like this, and Abreu is a good fit for their team, but I wonder how many other teams will be rushing to lock up players before the market has a chance to set prices this winter. Given the events of last winter and the questionable status of the economy, I'd imagine caution will be the strategy of many big league clubs.

Abreu was smart to take this deal and avoid the risk. If this winter is anything like last year, there will be better players settling for lesser contracts once they hit the market.

I hold in my hands the first of the big offseason publications: The Bill James Handbook 2010. "Carson," you might be asking, "how are you holding the book in your hands, plural, and typing at the same time? Isn't that difficult?" To which I reply: "Sure, it is. But it's the sort of sacrifice I"m willing to make for the FanGraphs readership."

I don't presume to even guess how the reader attacks his baseball annuals. For me, the first thing I do, is I head straight to the projections. I don't know why exactly, but it probably has to do with two reasons. First, the greatest joy in life is crushing one's friends in fantasy baseball. I want all the information possible towards achieving this great and noble end. Second, I like finding those projections of a slightly daring nature, so's to give me something to dream about as the next season gets closer and closer.

Of course, some of the projections aren't real shockers. Like, James and Co. think Pujols will slash .333/.443/.642 next year with 44 HR in 579 AB. That's about what you'd think.

Other of them are more surprising -- particularly among players who've yet to cut their major league teeth.

Below are five such projections (with position, RC/27, and slash stats). I'm including only hitters here for now, and will either pick up the pitchers next week, or never ever.

Joshua Bell, 3B, 6.06, 288/370/455
According to his website, Bell has "enchanted audiences worldwide with his breathtaking virtuosity and tone of rare beauty" for more than two decades. Apparently, he's turned his attention to baseball as of late. Bell was acquired by Baltimore from Los Angeles (N) in the George Sherrill trade. He posted a wOBA of .397 in Double-A last year. He's currently slashing .320/.404/.500 in the Arizona Fall League.

Tyler Flowers, C, 6.01, 275/353/476
Flowers got the proverbial cup of coffee with the White Sox at the end of season, netting 20 unspectacular plate appearances. Before that, though, he put up a great year across two levels. In particular, his .302/.445/.548 at Double-A Birmingham was impressive. He remains the heir apparent to A.J. Pierzynski, who enters the final year of his contract in 2010. If James's projections are accurate, Flowers could be a contributor even before that.

Todd Frazier, 2B/3B, 5.51, 278/336/471
Marc Hulet thinks Frazier might ultimately be the Reds' answer at third base -- although probably not till 2011, as Scott Rolen will be there (until he gets injured, that is). In the meantime, Frazier probably has value as a Chone Figgins-y utility player. He hit .290/.350/.481 as a Mudcat in the Double-A Southern League, and his brief time at Triple-A resulted in similar numbers (.302/.362/.476 in 69 PA).

Logan Morrison, 1B, 6.26, 269/401/434
Who's more likely to get injured, Scott Rolen or Nick Johnson? The answer to that question might inform who we see first: Frazier or Florida's Logan Morrison. The thing that jumps out -- about James's projection and also Morrison's 2009 season -- is the walk rates. Morrison batted .277/.411/.442 this past year at Double-A Jacksonville, posting 63 walks versus only 46 strikeouts in 343 plate appearances.

Michael Taylor, COF, 5.89, 285/350/462
Physically speaking, Taylor's almost the same size as former Pitt basketball standout DeJuan Blair. As such, you probably won't be suprised to learn that, at 6-foot-6 and 250 pounds, Taylor has some natural power. But he's got some other, more interesting features. According to John Sickels, he's got basically all the baseball tools you want, plus developing plate discipline, plus the sort of intelligence you'd expect from a Stanford guy. (Unless you're a Berkeley guy, that is, in which case you probably assume he's a dope.)

***

Bonus: Yankee Center Fielders
Question: Who should play center field for the Yankers next year: Melky Cabrera or Brett Gardner?

Answer: According to James's projections, neither. While Cabrera projects at .278/.341/.406 and Gardner at .277/.368/.375 (with an impressive 36-of-44 stolen base record), James has farmhand Austin Jackson at .294/.356/.411.

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams' Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Graduate: Colby Rasmus, CF
It wasn't the hugely successful rookie debut that many fans had hoped for, but Rasmus laid the groundwork for an excellent MLB career. In his rookie season in '09, he hit .251/.307/.407 with an ISO of .156 in 474 at-bats. His walk rate was lower than he averaged in his minor league career at 7.1 BB%, but he kept the strikeouts in line at 20.0 K%. He was hurt by a .284 BABIP. Although Rasmus had a negative offensive value in '09, he more than made up for that with his glove and ended up with a WAR of 2.3.

The Riser: Adron Chambers, OF
The speedy outfielder had a nice year in high-A ball by hitting .283/.370/.400 with 16 triples in 448 at-bats. The left-handed hitter needs to improve his base running after getting gunned down 12 times in 33 attempts. He showed a reasonable walk rate at 9.5 BB% but the strikeout rate was a little high (21.4%) for someone with an ISO .116. Chambers also posted a .600 OPS versus southpaws, compared to .830 versus right-handers. He's raw, but Chambers has potential as a former 38th round draft pick (2007) out of Pensacola Junior College.

The Tumbler: Adam Ottavino, RHP
A former first round draft pick (2006) out of Northeastern University, Ottavino has had back-to-back disappointing seasons. The right-hander pitched in triple-A in '09 and allowed 141 hits in 144.0 innings of work. His walk rate rose from 4.06 in '08 to 5.13 BB/9 in '09. On the plus side, his batting-average-against dropped from .290 to .258. Ottavino's fastball ranges from 88-93 mph and he also utilizes a slider, curveball and change-up. His best bet for success in the Majors may be in the bullpen.

The '10 Sleeper: Tyler Henley, OF
The 24-year-old Henley had some success at double-A in '09 and he has shown solid overall numbers as a pro. The outfielder hit .303/.367/.482 in 423 at-bats. He also posted a .180 ISO and his strikeout rate was just 15.1 K%. If Henley can start putting a few more fly balls over the fence, then he could potentially see a few years as a Major League starting right fielder. More likely, he'll be a solid fourth outfielder who can play center well enough to occasionally spell Colby Rasmus.

Bonus: Nick Additon, LHP
Additon was the Cardinals' sleeper prospect during the '08 series and he responded with a solid, albeit unspectacular, season. The southpaw allowed 69 hits in 79.1 high-A innings and 36 hits in 48.0 double-A innings. After his promotion, his strikeout rate dropped from 7.49 to 4.88 K/9, but his walk rate improved from 4.20 to 3.94 BB/9. Additon's control had always been a plus prior to '09, but it's risen with each season. His repertoire is modest with an 86-88 mph fastball, slider and change-up.