Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Garrett Crochet	37.0	2	2	29.7%	10.1%	1.95	2.22	1.3	1.2	16.9	26.3	171.0	13	8	30.8%	8.6%	2.74	2.69	5.3	4.8	68.0	102.4
2	Hunter Brown	31.0	3	1	28.2%	5.5%	1.16	2.03	1.2	1.6	17.6	26.1	172.0	13	9	25.4%	7.8%	3.19	3.35	3.9	3.7	55.8	77.7
3	Max Fried	31.2	4	0	22.7%	5.3%	1.42	2.90	0.8	1.0	17.8	23.5	179.2	15	7	22.5%	6.6%	3.06	3.42	3.6	3.7	60.6	82.1
4	Chris Bassitt	28.2	2	1	28.6%	5.0%	1.88	1.49	1.3	1.2	13.7	23.3	177.2	12	10	23.1%	7.4%	3.55	3.60	3.4	2.9	48.2	66.0
5	Kris Bubic	31.0	2	1	26.0%	7.1%	1.45	2.38	1.1	1.3	15.8	23.1	146.0	8	7	23.7%	8.0%	3.33	3.47	2.7	2.7	41.6	58.2
6	Nathan Eovaldi	36.2	2	2	27.1%	2.1%	2.21	2.59	1.0	1.1	15.1	22.9	180.2	11	10	23.9%	5.3%	3.54	3.53	3.4	2.8	48.0	67.5
7	Tyler Mahle	26.2	3	0	24.8%	11.9%	0.67	2.50	0.8	1.6	16.8	22.7	143.2	10	7	22.8%	8.9%	3.51	3.82	2.3	2.7	39.4	50.3
8	Logan Gilbert	30.1	1	1	37.6%	5.1%	2.37	2.11	1.0	1.0	12.6	20.6	173.1	10	8	28.4%	5.6%	3.12	3.14	3.9	3.4	56.5	82.6
9	Shane Baz	29.1	3	0	31.6%	7.9%	2.45	3.03	0.7	1.0	13.3	18.1	148.1	9	7	24.9%	8.6%	3.76	3.99	2.1	1.8	36.6	45.0
10	Drew Rasmussen	25.2	1	1	27.8%	6.2%	2.10	2.25	0.8	1.0	10.5	17.0	131.2	8	6	25.0%	6.2%	3.08	3.08	2.7	2.5	42.1	63.0

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Garrett Crochet	37.0	2	2	29.7%	10.1%	1.95	2.22	1.3	1.2	16.9	26.3	171.0	13	8	30.8%	8.6%	2.74	2.69	5.3	4.8	68.0	102.4
2	Hunter Brown	31.0	3	1	28.2%	5.5%	1.16	2.03	1.2	1.6	17.6	26.1	172.0	13	9	25.4%	7.8%	3.19	3.35	3.9	3.7	55.8	77.7
3	Max Fried	31.2	4	0	22.7%	5.3%	1.42	2.90	0.8	1.0	17.8	23.5	179.2	15	7	22.5%	6.6%	3.06	3.42	3.6	3.7	60.6	82.1
4	Chris Bassitt	28.2	2	1	28.6%	5.0%	1.88	1.49	1.3	1.2	13.7	23.3	177.2	12	10	23.1%	7.4%	3.55	3.60	3.4	2.9	48.2	66.0
5	Kris Bubic	31.0	2	1	26.0%	7.1%	1.45	2.38	1.1	1.3	15.8	23.1	146.0	8	7	23.7%	8.0%	3.33	3.47	2.7	2.7	41.6	58.2
6	Nathan Eovaldi	36.2	2	2	27.1%	2.1%	2.21	2.59	1.0	1.1	15.1	22.9	180.2	11	10	23.9%	5.3%	3.54	3.53	3.4	2.8	48.0	67.5
7	Tyler Mahle	26.2	3	0	24.8%	11.9%	0.67	2.50	0.8	1.6	16.8	22.7	143.2	10	7	22.8%	8.9%	3.51	3.82	2.3	2.7	39.4	50.3
8	Logan Gilbert	30.1	1	1	37.6%	5.1%	2.37	2.11	1.0	1.0	12.6	20.6	173.1	10	8	28.4%	5.6%	3.12	3.14	3.9	3.4	56.5	82.6
9	Shane Baz	29.1	3	0	31.6%	7.9%	2.45	3.03	0.7	1.0	13.3	18.1	148.1	9	7	24.9%	8.6%	3.76	3.99	2.1	1.8	36.6	45.0
10	Drew Rasmussen	25.2	1	1	27.8%	6.2%	2.10	2.25	0.8	1.0	10.5	17.0	131.2	8	6	25.0%	6.2%	3.08	3.08	2.7	2.5	42.1	63.0

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	34.0	3	2	32.6%	8.3%	1.06	2.23	1.1	1.5	20.3	28.9	171.0	14	8	27.7%	6.9%	2.89	3.04	4.2	4.1	63.5	91.3
2	Logan Webb	36.1	3	1	30.8%	7.0%	1.98	1.79	1.3	1.4	17.6	28.5	203.1	15	9	23.3%	5.9%	2.97	2.87	4.7	4.6	69.1	105.9
3	Paul Skenes	37.2	3	2	27.5%	2.8%	2.39	1.70	1.5	1.2	15.7	27.4	184.2	13	8	29.0%	5.8%	2.83	2.63	5.7	5.0	68.7	107.1
4	Nick Pivetta	30.0	4	1	27.0%	6.3%	1.20	2.16	1.1	1.7	18.0	25.8	169.0	13	9	27.8%	7.5%	3.36	3.59	3.2	3.5	53.5	70.7
5	Jesús Luzardo	30.1	2	0	30.0%	5.8%	2.08	1.78	1.2	1.2	13.8	22.9	171.1	11	8	26.2%	7.6%	3.62	3.55	3.2	2.7	46.3	64.4
6	Andrew Heaney	31.1	2	1	26.3%	5.1%	1.72	2.23	1.1	1.5	14.8	22.7	148.1	8	9	22.7%	6.9%	3.76	3.83	2.3	2.5	34.3	45.4
7	Tylor Megill	24.2	3	2	27.8%	10.2%	1.09	2.18	1.0	0.8	15.3	21.7	102.2	8	6	25.3%	9.4%	3.24	3.49	1.7	1.3	33.4	45.0
8	MacKenzie Gore	35.0	2	3	37.3%	6.3%	3.34	1.97	1.3	0.8	11.8	21.6	177.0	11	12	29.0%	8.3%	3.56	3.30	3.8	3.2	50.9	74.6
9	Michael King	33.0	3	1	29.6%	8.1%	2.18	2.88	0.9	1.2	15.5	21.5	181.0	14	8	26.9%	8.6%	3.23	3.48	3.7	3.7	59.8	80.3
10	Kodai Senga	28.2	3	1	22.5%	8.1%	1.26	2.78	0.7	1.2	15.8	21.3	163.2	12	8	24.5%	9.7%	3.19	3.72	2.5	3.0	52.5	66.8

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	34.0	3	2	32.6%	8.3%	1.06	2.23	1.1	1.5	20.3	28.9	171.0	14	8	27.7%	6.9%	2.89	3.04	4.2	4.1	63.5	91.3
2	Logan Webb	36.1	3	1	30.8%	7.0%	1.98	1.79	1.3	1.4	17.6	28.5	203.1	15	9	23.3%	5.9%	2.97	2.87	4.7	4.6	69.1	105.9
3	Paul Skenes	37.2	3	2	27.5%	2.8%	2.39	1.70	1.5	1.2	15.7	27.4	184.2	13	8	29.0%	5.8%	2.83	2.63	5.7	5.0	68.7	107.1
4	Nick Pivetta	30.0	4	1	27.0%	6.3%	1.20	2.16	1.1	1.7	18.0	25.8	169.0	13	9	27.8%	7.5%	3.36	3.59	3.2	3.5	53.5	70.7
5	Jesús Luzardo	30.1	2	0	30.0%	5.8%	2.08	1.78	1.2	1.2	13.8	22.9	171.1	11	8	26.2%	7.6%	3.62	3.55	3.2	2.7	46.3	64.4
6	Andrew Heaney	31.1	2	1	26.3%	5.1%	1.72	2.23	1.1	1.5	14.8	22.7	148.1	8	9	22.7%	6.9%	3.76	3.83	2.3	2.5	34.3	45.4
7	Tylor Megill	24.2	3	2	27.8%	10.2%	1.09	2.18	1.0	0.8	15.3	21.7	102.2	8	6	25.3%	9.4%	3.24	3.49	1.7	1.3	33.4	45.0
8	MacKenzie Gore	35.0	2	3	37.3%	6.3%	3.34	1.97	1.3	0.8	11.8	21.6	177.0	11	12	29.0%	8.3%	3.56	3.30	3.8	3.2	50.9	74.6
9	Michael King	33.0	3	1	29.6%	8.1%	2.18	2.88	0.9	1.2	15.5	21.5	181.0	14	8	26.9%	8.6%	3.23	3.48	3.7	3.7	59.8	80.3
10	Kodai Senga	28.2	3	1	22.5%	8.1%	1.26	2.78	0.7	1.2	15.8	21.3	163.2	12	8	24.5%	9.7%	3.19	3.72	2.5	3.0	52.5	66.8

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG