Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Cam Schlittler	76.1	7	3	28.5%	4.4%	1.89	2.13	2.8	3.1	37.6	57.6	158.1	13	7	26.6%	6.3%	2.79	2.90	4.4	4.5	60.1	88.2
2	Tarik Skubal	43.1	3	2	27.1%	3.6%	2.70	2.11	1.5	1.4	16.2	27.7	133.1	10	5	29.3%	4.6%	2.70	2.45	4.4	4.2	52.0	82.4
3	Dylan Cease	62.0	3	3	35.7%	10.1%	3.05	2.59	2.0	1.5	22.2	35.4	167.0	10	8	31.8%	9.6%	3.29	3.03	4.4	3.7	54.7	81.9
4	Shane McClanahan	55.0	6	2	23.9%	8.6%	2.45	2.74	1.6	1.9	23.8	34.6	152.0	13	7	24.9%	7.9%	3.02	3.15	3.7	4.1	53.5	76.3
5	Bryan Woo	70.2	5	3	24.4%	5.0%	3.44	2.96	1.9	1.3	20.1	32.2	182.2	13	8	24.6%	5.3%	3.45	3.33	4.1	3.3	52.4	76.1
6	Kevin Gausman	75.0	4	4	24.3%	4.6%	3.36	2.94	2.1	1.7	20.9	33.9	192.0	12	10	23.8%	5.8%	3.61	3.35	4.3	3.6	49.9	74.4
7	Joe Ryan	70.1	4	3	28.0%	5.0%	3.20	2.78	2.1	1.4	22.1	35.5	169.1	11	8	27.4%	5.4%	3.45	3.21	4.2	3.3	49.6	73.8
8	Gavin Williams	81.2	9	3	29.0%	7.7%	3.20	3.54	1.5	2.2	30.2	38.9	187.2	16	9	27.0%	8.7%	3.50	3.74	3.0	3.9	57.7	73.6
9	Davis Martin	72.1	8	2	25.3%	5.9%	2.61	2.45	2.6	2.6	30.5	46.9	168.1	13	8	22.4%	6.9%	3.42	3.34	4.1	4.0	48.8	70.4
10	Parker Messick	69.1	6	1	27.2%	7.7%	2.21	3.05	1.8	2.7	31.1	42.3	160.1	11	6	24.8%	7.9%	3.09	3.55	3.2	4.1	52.5	69.4

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Cam Schlittler	76.1	7	3	28.5%	4.4%	1.89	2.13	2.8	3.1	37.6	57.6	158.1	13	7	26.6%	6.3%	2.79	2.90	4.4	4.5	60.1	88.2
2	Tarik Skubal	43.1	3	2	27.1%	3.6%	2.70	2.11	1.5	1.4	16.2	27.7	133.1	10	5	29.3%	4.6%	2.70	2.45	4.4	4.2	52.0	82.4
3	Dylan Cease	62.0	3	3	35.7%	10.1%	3.05	2.59	2.0	1.5	22.2	35.4	167.0	10	8	31.8%	9.6%	3.29	3.03	4.4	3.7	54.7	81.9
4	Shane McClanahan	55.0	6	2	23.9%	8.6%	2.45	2.74	1.6	1.9	23.8	34.6	152.0	13	7	24.9%	7.9%	3.02	3.15	3.7	4.1	53.5	76.3
5	Bryan Woo	70.2	5	3	24.4%	5.0%	3.44	2.96	1.9	1.3	20.1	32.2	182.2	13	8	24.6%	5.3%	3.45	3.33	4.1	3.3	52.4	76.1
6	Kevin Gausman	75.0	4	4	24.3%	4.6%	3.36	2.94	2.1	1.7	20.9	33.9	192.0	12	10	23.8%	5.8%	3.61	3.35	4.3	3.6	49.9	74.4
7	Joe Ryan	70.1	4	3	28.0%	5.0%	3.20	2.78	2.1	1.4	22.1	35.5	169.1	11	8	27.4%	5.4%	3.45	3.21	4.2	3.3	49.6	73.8
8	Gavin Williams	81.2	9	3	29.0%	7.7%	3.20	3.54	1.5	2.2	30.2	38.9	187.2	16	9	27.0%	8.7%	3.50	3.74	3.0	3.9	57.7	73.6
9	Davis Martin	72.1	8	2	25.3%	5.9%	2.61	2.45	2.6	2.6	30.5	46.9	168.1	13	8	22.4%	6.9%	3.42	3.34	4.1	4.0	48.8	70.4
10	Parker Messick	69.1	6	1	27.2%	7.7%	2.21	3.05	1.8	2.7	31.1	42.3	160.1	11	6	24.8%	7.9%	3.09	3.55	3.2	4.1	52.5	69.4

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Cristopher Sánchez	86.1	7	2	29.5%	4.9%	1.46	1.79	3.6	3.9	46.5	72.4	212.1	15	7	26.9%	5.5%	2.33	2.48	7.1	7.3	89.4	137.0
2	Jacob Misiorowski	71.0	6	2	39.6%	7.0%	1.65	1.85	3.0	3.3	39.3	60.2	177.0	13	7	34.2%	8.8%	2.69	2.78	5.2	5.4	72.9	106.6
3	Paul Skenes	70.0	6	5	29.5%	4.7%	3.09	2.60	2.2	1.6	25.2	40.0	183.0	15	10	29.3%	5.7%	2.95	2.75	5.5	4.9	68.1	103.7
4	Chris Sale	72.2	8	4	29.3%	6.5%	2.23	2.88	1.8	2.7	34.9	48.0	179.2	16	9	29.3%	6.6%	2.76	3.02	4.5	5.3	72.2	101.8
5	Shohei Ohtani	61.0	6	2	28.8%	7.7%	0.74	2.41	2.2	3.6	38.2	52.3	142.0	12	5	28.8%	8.2%	2.15	3.02	4.1	5.6	65.2	88.5
6	Chase Burns	70.1	7	1	29.7%	7.7%	2.05	3.36	1.8	3.2	34.3	43.2	155.1	13	6	29.0%	7.5%	2.95	3.41	3.8	4.7	57.8	76.7
7	Braxton Ashcraft	74.2	5	2	27.3%	5.7%	2.77	3.04	2.0	2.2	27.4	39.6	175.2	11	7	24.8%	6.4%	3.28	3.31	3.9	4.1	52.7	75.9
8	Zack Wheeler	50.2	5	1	25.4%	6.3%	2.31	3.52	1.0	2.0	22.1	27.7	159.2	12	6	26.0%	6.5%	3.04	3.42	3.4	4.4	54.3	73.5
9	Jesús Luzardo	67.0	4	4	27.4%	6.7%	4.30	2.77	1.9	0.7	13.3	26.1	183.0	12	10	27.0%	7.2%	3.84	3.26	4.4	3.0	46.2	71.5
10	Kyle Harrison	57.1	7	1	31.9%	7.0%	1.57	2.46	1.9	2.9	33.0	46.0	147.1	12	6	28.4%	8.2%	3.05	3.38	3.3	4.1	53.0	71.3

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Cristopher Sánchez	86.1	7	2	29.5%	4.9%	1.46	1.79	3.6	3.9	46.5	72.4	212.1	15	7	26.9%	5.5%	2.33	2.48	7.1	7.3	89.4	137.0
2	Jacob Misiorowski	71.0	6	2	39.6%	7.0%	1.65	1.85	3.0	3.3	39.3	60.2	177.0	13	7	34.2%	8.8%	2.69	2.78	5.2	5.4	72.9	106.6
3	Paul Skenes	70.0	6	5	29.5%	4.7%	3.09	2.60	2.2	1.6	25.2	40.0	183.0	15	10	29.3%	5.7%	2.95	2.75	5.5	4.9	68.1	103.7
4	Chris Sale	72.2	8	4	29.3%	6.5%	2.23	2.88	1.8	2.7	34.9	48.0	179.2	16	9	29.3%	6.6%	2.76	3.02	4.5	5.3	72.2	101.8
5	Shohei Ohtani	61.0	6	2	28.8%	7.7%	0.74	2.41	2.2	3.6	38.2	52.3	142.0	12	5	28.8%	8.2%	2.15	3.02	4.1	5.6	65.2	88.5
6	Chase Burns	70.1	7	1	29.7%	7.7%	2.05	3.36	1.8	3.2	34.3	43.2	155.1	13	6	29.0%	7.5%	2.95	3.41	3.8	4.7	57.8	76.7
7	Braxton Ashcraft	74.2	5	2	27.3%	5.7%	2.77	3.04	2.0	2.2	27.4	39.6	175.2	11	7	24.8%	6.4%	3.28	3.31	3.9	4.1	52.7	75.9
8	Zack Wheeler	50.2	5	1	25.4%	6.3%	2.31	3.52	1.0	2.0	22.1	27.7	159.2	12	6	26.0%	6.5%	3.04	3.42	3.4	4.4	54.3	73.5
9	Jesús Luzardo	67.0	4	4	27.4%	6.7%	4.30	2.77	1.9	0.7	13.3	26.1	183.0	12	10	27.0%	7.2%	3.84	3.26	4.4	3.0	46.2	71.5
10	Kyle Harrison	57.1	7	1	31.9%	7.0%	1.57	2.46	1.9	2.9	33.0	46.0	147.1	12	6	28.4%	8.2%	3.05	3.38	3.3	4.1	53.0	71.3

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BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG