Cy Young Award Projections
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 28.2 | 2 | 2 | 25.0% | 4.3% | 2.83 | 2.89 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 10.2 | 15.4 | 195.2 | 14 | 9 | 27.9% | 5.2% | 2.90 | 2.83 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 70.7 | 107.1 |
| 2 | Garrett Crochet | 32.0 | 2 | 1 | 28.5% | 8.1% | 1.13 | 2.18 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 17.5 | 25.7 | 168.0 | 13 | 7 | 30.6% | 7.9% | 2.63 | 2.65 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 68.8 | 103.2 |
| 3 | Logan Gilbert | 27.1 | 1 | 1 | 38.0% | 5.6% | 2.63 | 2.22 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 10.8 | 17.7 | 194.1 | 11 | 9 | 28.1% | 5.7% | 3.20 | 3.21 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 61.2 | 89.0 |
| 4 | Max Fried | 31.2 | 4 | 0 | 22.7% | 5.3% | 1.42 | 2.90 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 17.8 | 23.5 | 181.2 | 15 | 7 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 3.07 | 3.41 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 60.8 | 82.8 |
| 5 | Cole Ragans | 27.2 | 1 | 1 | 36.8% | 6.1% | 3.58 | 1.80 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 8.0 | 16.3 | 178.2 | 11 | 9 | 29.2% | 8.3% | 3.53 | 3.18 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 52.1 | 78.4 |
| 6 | Hunter Brown | 31.0 | 3 | 1 | 28.2% | 5.5% | 1.16 | 2.03 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 17.6 | 26.1 | 174.0 | 13 | 9 | 25.3% | 7.9% | 3.21 | 3.34 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 56.0 | 78.3 |
| 7 | Drew Rasmussen | 20.2 | 1 | 1 | 28.9% | 6.6% | 0.87 | 1.62 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 11.5 | 18.1 | 129.2 | 8 | 6 | 24.8% | 6.3% | 2.85 | 3.01 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 44.7 | 66.2 |
| 8 | Chris Bassitt | 28.2 | 2 | 1 | 28.6% | 5.0% | 1.88 | 1.49 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 13.7 | 23.3 | 180.2 | 12 | 10 | 23.0% | 7.5% | 3.54 | 3.66 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 48.9 | 65.8 |
| 9 | Framber Valdez | 28.0 | 1 | 2 | 21.8% | 9.2% | 4.50 | 3.49 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 184.0 | 12 | 9 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 3.62 | 3.65 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 47.2 | 64.6 |
| 10 | Pablo López | 16.2 | 1 | 1 | 20.9% | 3.0% | 1.62 | 3.27 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 7.7 | 10.0 | 171.2 | 11 | 10 | 24.6% | 5.8% | 3.57 | 3.56 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 46.3 | 64.3 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 28.2 | 2 | 2 | 25.0% | 4.3% | 2.83 | 2.89 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 10.2 | 15.4 | 195.2 | 14 | 9 | 27.9% | 5.2% | 2.90 | 2.83 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 70.7 | 107.1 |
| 2 | Garrett Crochet | 32.0 | 2 | 1 | 28.5% | 8.1% | 1.13 | 2.18 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 17.5 | 25.7 | 168.0 | 13 | 7 | 30.6% | 7.9% | 2.63 | 2.65 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 68.8 | 103.2 |
| 3 | Logan Gilbert | 27.1 | 1 | 1 | 38.0% | 5.6% | 2.63 | 2.22 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 10.8 | 17.7 | 194.1 | 11 | 9 | 28.1% | 5.7% | 3.20 | 3.21 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 61.2 | 89.0 |
| 4 | Max Fried | 31.2 | 4 | 0 | 22.7% | 5.3% | 1.42 | 2.90 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 17.8 | 23.5 | 181.2 | 15 | 7 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 3.07 | 3.41 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 60.8 | 82.8 |
| 5 | Cole Ragans | 27.2 | 1 | 1 | 36.8% | 6.1% | 3.58 | 1.80 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 8.0 | 16.3 | 178.2 | 11 | 9 | 29.2% | 8.3% | 3.53 | 3.18 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 52.1 | 78.4 |
| 6 | Hunter Brown | 31.0 | 3 | 1 | 28.2% | 5.5% | 1.16 | 2.03 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 17.6 | 26.1 | 174.0 | 13 | 9 | 25.3% | 7.9% | 3.21 | 3.34 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 56.0 | 78.3 |
| 7 | Drew Rasmussen | 20.2 | 1 | 1 | 28.9% | 6.6% | 0.87 | 1.62 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 11.5 | 18.1 | 129.2 | 8 | 6 | 24.8% | 6.3% | 2.85 | 3.01 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 44.7 | 66.2 |
| 8 | Chris Bassitt | 28.2 | 2 | 1 | 28.6% | 5.0% | 1.88 | 1.49 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 13.7 | 23.3 | 180.2 | 12 | 10 | 23.0% | 7.5% | 3.54 | 3.66 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 48.9 | 65.8 |
| 9 | Framber Valdez | 28.0 | 1 | 2 | 21.8% | 9.2% | 4.50 | 3.49 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 184.0 | 12 | 9 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 3.62 | 3.65 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 47.2 | 64.6 |
| 10 | Pablo López | 16.2 | 1 | 1 | 20.9% | 3.0% | 1.62 | 3.27 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 7.7 | 10.0 | 171.2 | 11 | 10 | 24.6% | 5.8% | 3.57 | 3.56 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 46.3 | 64.3 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Logan Webb | 30.0 | 2 | 1 | 32.8% | 6.0% | 2.40 | 1.63 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 12.8 | 22.4 | 200.0 | 14 | 9 | 23.3% | 5.6% | 3.11 | 2.87 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 64.1 | 100.4 |
| 2 | Paul Skenes | 31.1 | 2 | 2 | 25.4% | 3.4% | 2.87 | 2.00 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 10.7 | 19.4 | 180.1 | 12 | 9 | 28.7% | 6.2% | 2.99 | 2.72 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 63.0 | 98.7 |
| 3 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 29.0 | 3 | 1 | 35.2% | 6.5% | 0.93 | 2.03 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 18.3 | 26.3 | 168.0 | 14 | 7 | 28.1% | 6.3% | 2.95 | 3.05 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 61.8 | 88.9 |
| 4 | Zack Wheeler | 31.1 | 2 | 1 | 33.6% | 4.9% | 3.73 | 3.15 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 8.8 | 13.5 | 203.1 | 14 | 8 | 27.6% | 6.1% | 3.41 | 3.32 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 61.4 | 87.9 |
| 5 | Chris Sale | 23.1 | 0 | 2 | 29.1% | 6.4% | 6.17 | 3.80 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -1.1 | 0.7 | 176.1 | 11 | 8 | 29.8% | 6.5% | 3.57 | 3.18 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 51.1 | 77.0 |
| 6 | Clay Holmes | 25.2 | 2 | 1 | 30.1% | 11.5% | 3.16 | 2.13 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 9.2 | 16.0 | 168.2 | 13 | 9 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 3.42 | 3.26 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 50.6 | 74.0 |
| 7 | Michael King | 28.0 | 3 | 0 | 27.2% | 8.8% | 2.57 | 3.38 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 12.1 | 15.6 | 179.0 | 14 | 8 | 26.1% | 8.7% | 3.37 | 3.65 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 56.0 | 73.0 |
| 8 | Spencer Schwellenbach | 31.2 | 1 | 1 | 21.8% | 4.0% | 2.56 | 3.12 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 10.5 | 15.4 | 184.2 | 11 | 8 | 23.1% | 5.3% | 3.46 | 3.53 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 49.8 | 69.8 |
| 9 | Nick Pivetta | 30.0 | 4 | 1 | 27.0% | 6.3% | 1.20 | 2.16 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 18.0 | 25.8 | 163.0 | 13 | 9 | 27.7% | 7.4% | 3.31 | 3.57 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 52.8 | 69.6 |
| 10 | MacKenzie Gore | 29.0 | 2 | 2 | 37.8% | 6.7% | 3.41 | 2.20 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 10.0 | 17.4 | 173.0 | 11 | 11 | 28.6% | 8.5% | 3.64 | 3.46 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 48.3 | 68.3 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Logan Webb | 30.0 | 2 | 1 | 32.8% | 6.0% | 2.40 | 1.63 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 12.8 | 22.4 | 200.0 | 14 | 9 | 23.3% | 5.6% | 3.11 | 2.87 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 64.1 | 100.4 |
| 2 | Paul Skenes | 31.1 | 2 | 2 | 25.4% | 3.4% | 2.87 | 2.00 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 10.7 | 19.4 | 180.1 | 12 | 9 | 28.7% | 6.2% | 2.99 | 2.72 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 63.0 | 98.7 |
| 3 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 29.0 | 3 | 1 | 35.2% | 6.5% | 0.93 | 2.03 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 18.3 | 26.3 | 168.0 | 14 | 7 | 28.1% | 6.3% | 2.95 | 3.05 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 61.8 | 88.9 |
| 4 | Zack Wheeler | 31.1 | 2 | 1 | 33.6% | 4.9% | 3.73 | 3.15 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 8.8 | 13.5 | 203.1 | 14 | 8 | 27.6% | 6.1% | 3.41 | 3.32 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 61.4 | 87.9 |
| 5 | Chris Sale | 23.1 | 0 | 2 | 29.1% | 6.4% | 6.17 | 3.80 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -1.1 | 0.7 | 176.1 | 11 | 8 | 29.8% | 6.5% | 3.57 | 3.18 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 51.1 | 77.0 |
| 6 | Clay Holmes | 25.2 | 2 | 1 | 30.1% | 11.5% | 3.16 | 2.13 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 9.2 | 16.0 | 168.2 | 13 | 9 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 3.42 | 3.26 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 50.6 | 74.0 |
| 7 | Michael King | 28.0 | 3 | 0 | 27.2% | 8.8% | 2.57 | 3.38 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 12.1 | 15.6 | 179.0 | 14 | 8 | 26.1% | 8.7% | 3.37 | 3.65 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 56.0 | 73.0 |
| 8 | Spencer Schwellenbach | 31.2 | 1 | 1 | 21.8% | 4.0% | 2.56 | 3.12 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 10.5 | 15.4 | 184.2 | 11 | 8 | 23.1% | 5.3% | 3.46 | 3.53 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 49.8 | 69.8 |
| 9 | Nick Pivetta | 30.0 | 4 | 1 | 27.0% | 6.3% | 1.20 | 2.16 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 18.0 | 25.8 | 163.0 | 13 | 9 | 27.7% | 7.4% | 3.31 | 3.57 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 52.8 | 69.6 |
| 10 | MacKenzie Gore | 29.0 | 2 | 2 | 37.8% | 6.7% | 3.41 | 2.20 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 10.0 | 17.4 | 173.0 | 11 | 11 | 28.6% | 8.5% | 3.64 | 3.46 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 48.3 | 68.3 |
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