Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Luis Castillo | 48.0 | 3 | 5 | 28.4% | 5.6% | 3.56 | 2.85 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 13.6 | 22.5 | 197.0 | 14 | 12 | 26.8% | 6.6% | 3.33 | 3.14 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 61.1 | 91.0 |
| 2 | Tarik Skubal | 42.1 | 4 | 0 | 32.7% | 3.7% | 1.92 | 2.05 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 21.4 | 32.9 | 158.1 | 11 | 6 | 28.4% | 5.1% | 3.02 | 2.70 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 55.1 | 86.7 |
| 3 | Logan Gilbert | 48.0 | 3 | 0 | 28.2% | 7.3% | 1.69 | 3.23 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 23.0 | 29.8 | 197.0 | 12 | 6 | 24.2% | 6.7% | 3.06 | 3.49 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 62.8 | 84.9 |
| 4 | George Kirby | 38.0 | 3 | 2 | 26.3% | 2.6% | 3.78 | 2.07 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 10.1 | 20.4 | 183.0 | 14 | 9 | 23.4% | 3.5% | 3.44 | 2.96 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 53.0 | 84.3 |
| 5 | Corbin Burnes | 47.1 | 3 | 2 | 25.3% | 6.5% | 2.86 | 3.57 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 16.3 | 21.2 | 197.1 | 12 | 8 | 25.8% | 7.1% | 3.42 | 3.32 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 56.3 | 82.1 |
| 6 | Zach Eflin | 48.0 | 2 | 4 | 19.5% | 2.0% | 3.75 | 3.73 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 9.9 | 14.0 | 182.0 | 13 | 11 | 22.2% | 3.2% | 3.61 | 3.44 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 47.6 | 69.0 |
| 7 | Kevin Gausman | 33.0 | 2 | 3 | 21.5% | 5.6% | 3.81 | 3.66 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 7.6 | 10.7 | 175.0 | 12 | 9 | 24.9% | 5.7% | 3.65 | 3.46 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 46.9 | 67.1 |
| 8 | Tanner Houck | 45.0 | 3 | 3 | 25.4% | 3.9% | 2.00 | 2.06 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 20.1 | 32.4 | 153.0 | 11 | 10 | 24.7% | 6.6% | 3.53 | 3.24 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 43.3 | 64.7 |
| 9 | Pablo López | 37.1 | 3 | 2 | 30.2% | 5.4% | 4.35 | 3.47 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 8.1 | 12.4 | 182.1 | 11 | 9 | 27.5% | 6.0% | 3.90 | 3.46 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 43.6 | 64.6 |
| 10 | Cole Ragans | 42.1 | 2 | 2 | 29.8% | 8.3% | 3.41 | 2.34 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 12.5 | 22.6 | 161.1 | 9 | 9 | 26.2% | 8.9% | 3.68 | 3.25 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 41.6 | 64.0 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Luis Castillo | 48.0 | 3 | 5 | 28.4% | 5.6% | 3.56 | 2.85 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 13.6 | 22.5 | 197.0 | 14 | 12 | 26.8% | 6.6% | 3.33 | 3.14 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 61.1 | 91.0 |
| 2 | Tarik Skubal | 42.1 | 4 | 0 | 32.7% | 3.7% | 1.92 | 2.05 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 21.4 | 32.9 | 158.1 | 11 | 6 | 28.4% | 5.1% | 3.02 | 2.70 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 55.1 | 86.7 |
| 3 | Logan Gilbert | 48.0 | 3 | 0 | 28.2% | 7.3% | 1.69 | 3.23 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 23.0 | 29.8 | 197.0 | 12 | 6 | 24.2% | 6.7% | 3.06 | 3.49 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 62.8 | 84.9 |
| 4 | George Kirby | 38.0 | 3 | 2 | 26.3% | 2.6% | 3.78 | 2.07 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 10.1 | 20.4 | 183.0 | 14 | 9 | 23.4% | 3.5% | 3.44 | 2.96 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 53.0 | 84.3 |
| 5 | Corbin Burnes | 47.1 | 3 | 2 | 25.3% | 6.5% | 2.86 | 3.57 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 16.3 | 21.2 | 197.1 | 12 | 8 | 25.8% | 7.1% | 3.42 | 3.32 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 56.3 | 82.1 |
| 6 | Zach Eflin | 48.0 | 2 | 4 | 19.5% | 2.0% | 3.75 | 3.73 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 9.9 | 14.0 | 182.0 | 13 | 11 | 22.2% | 3.2% | 3.61 | 3.44 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 47.6 | 69.0 |
| 7 | Kevin Gausman | 33.0 | 2 | 3 | 21.5% | 5.6% | 3.81 | 3.66 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 7.6 | 10.7 | 175.0 | 12 | 9 | 24.9% | 5.7% | 3.65 | 3.46 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 46.9 | 67.1 |
| 8 | Tanner Houck | 45.0 | 3 | 3 | 25.4% | 3.9% | 2.00 | 2.06 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 20.1 | 32.4 | 153.0 | 11 | 10 | 24.7% | 6.6% | 3.53 | 3.24 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 43.3 | 64.7 |
| 9 | Pablo López | 37.1 | 3 | 2 | 30.2% | 5.4% | 4.35 | 3.47 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 8.1 | 12.4 | 182.1 | 11 | 9 | 27.5% | 6.0% | 3.90 | 3.46 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 43.6 | 64.6 |
| 10 | Cole Ragans | 42.1 | 2 | 2 | 29.8% | 8.3% | 3.41 | 2.34 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 12.5 | 22.6 | 161.1 | 9 | 9 | 26.2% | 8.9% | 3.68 | 3.25 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 41.6 | 64.0 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 49.0 | 4 | 3 | 32.1% | 6.6% | 1.65 | 2.29 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 25.8 | 37.9 | 197.0 | 14 | 9 | 27.1% | 6.7% | 3.06 | 2.92 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 67.4 | 102.0 |
| 2 | Tyler Glasnow | 50.0 | 6 | 1 | 32.3% | 6.7% | 2.70 | 2.44 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 22.3 | 33.7 | 166.0 | 17 | 5 | 31.1% | 7.1% | 3.20 | 3.06 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 61.9 | 88.5 |
| 3 | Shota Imanaga | 41.1 | 5 | 0 | 26.9% | 3.1% | 1.09 | 2.37 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 24.9 | 34.7 | 164.1 | 13 | 5 | 26.1% | 5.6% | 2.85 | 3.03 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 60.7 | 87.4 |
| 4 | Logan Webb | 46.0 | 3 | 3 | 18.3% | 6.1% | 3.51 | 2.99 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 11.6 | 19.4 | 199.0 | 14 | 10 | 19.9% | 5.5% | 3.44 | 3.17 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 54.1 | 83.5 |
| 5 | Dylan Cease | 42.0 | 4 | 2 | 29.8% | 8.7% | 2.57 | 2.48 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 17.8 | 27.3 | 172.0 | 13 | 7 | 29.1% | 9.6% | 3.29 | 3.22 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 56.7 | 81.2 |
| 6 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 42.0 | 4 | 1 | 27.8% | 4.7% | 2.79 | 3.10 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 16.7 | 23.2 | 184.0 | 16 | 7 | 26.0% | 5.1% | 3.42 | 3.33 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 56.9 | 80.8 |
| 7 | Sonny Gray | 30.0 | 4 | 1 | 33.3% | 4.4% | 0.90 | 1.55 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 19.9 | 29.7 | 163.0 | 12 | 6 | 24.0% | 6.8% | 2.92 | 3.22 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 56.6 | 79.8 |
| 8 | Ranger Suárez | 47.0 | 6 | 0 | 26.9% | 3.5% | 1.72 | 2.80 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 25.1 | 34.0 | 172.0 | 14 | 6 | 22.3% | 6.5% | 3.24 | 3.59 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 53.7 | 71.2 |
| 9 | Zac Gallen | 38.0 | 4 | 2 | 26.5% | 7.7% | 2.84 | 3.38 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 15.1 | 19.8 | 179.0 | 14 | 9 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 3.42 | 3.70 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 53.2 | 69.2 |
| 10 | Reynaldo López | 35.0 | 2 | 1 | 25.5% | 9.9% | 1.54 | 3.03 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 17.1 | 22.9 | 133.0 | 11 | 5 | 25.7% | 9.2% | 3.04 | 3.36 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 46.8 | 63.7 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 49.0 | 4 | 3 | 32.1% | 6.6% | 1.65 | 2.29 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 25.8 | 37.9 | 197.0 | 14 | 9 | 27.1% | 6.7% | 3.06 | 2.92 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 67.4 | 102.0 |
| 2 | Tyler Glasnow | 50.0 | 6 | 1 | 32.3% | 6.7% | 2.70 | 2.44 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 22.3 | 33.7 | 166.0 | 17 | 5 | 31.1% | 7.1% | 3.20 | 3.06 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 61.9 | 88.5 |
| 3 | Shota Imanaga | 41.1 | 5 | 0 | 26.9% | 3.1% | 1.09 | 2.37 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 24.9 | 34.7 | 164.1 | 13 | 5 | 26.1% | 5.6% | 2.85 | 3.03 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 60.7 | 87.4 |
| 4 | Logan Webb | 46.0 | 3 | 3 | 18.3% | 6.1% | 3.51 | 2.99 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 11.6 | 19.4 | 199.0 | 14 | 10 | 19.9% | 5.5% | 3.44 | 3.17 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 54.1 | 83.5 |
| 5 | Dylan Cease | 42.0 | 4 | 2 | 29.8% | 8.7% | 2.57 | 2.48 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 17.8 | 27.3 | 172.0 | 13 | 7 | 29.1% | 9.6% | 3.29 | 3.22 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 56.7 | 81.2 |
| 6 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 42.0 | 4 | 1 | 27.8% | 4.7% | 2.79 | 3.10 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 16.7 | 23.2 | 184.0 | 16 | 7 | 26.0% | 5.1% | 3.42 | 3.33 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 56.9 | 80.8 |
| 7 | Sonny Gray | 30.0 | 4 | 1 | 33.3% | 4.4% | 0.90 | 1.55 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 19.9 | 29.7 | 163.0 | 12 | 6 | 24.0% | 6.8% | 2.92 | 3.22 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 56.6 | 79.8 |
| 8 | Ranger Suárez | 47.0 | 6 | 0 | 26.9% | 3.5% | 1.72 | 2.80 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 25.1 | 34.0 | 172.0 | 14 | 6 | 22.3% | 6.5% | 3.24 | 3.59 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 53.7 | 71.2 |
| 9 | Zac Gallen | 38.0 | 4 | 2 | 26.5% | 7.7% | 2.84 | 3.38 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 15.1 | 19.8 | 179.0 | 14 | 9 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 3.42 | 3.70 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 53.2 | 69.2 |
| 10 | Reynaldo López | 35.0 | 2 | 1 | 25.5% | 9.9% | 1.54 | 3.03 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 17.1 | 22.9 | 133.0 | 11 | 5 | 25.7% | 9.2% | 3.04 | 3.36 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 46.8 | 63.7 |
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