Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	42.1	4	0	32.7%	3.7%	1.92	2.07	1.5	1.5	21.4	32.8	165.1	13	7	31.4%	5.6%	2.78	2.69	4.9	4.6	65.2	98.5
2	Luis Castillo	48.0	3	5	28.4%	5.6%	3.56	2.87	1.3	0.8	13.6	22.4	199.0	13	13	27.2%	6.9%	3.48	3.29	4.5	3.7	57.6	84.3
3	Logan Gilbert	48.0	3	0	28.2%	7.3%	1.69	3.24	0.9	2.2	23.0	29.7	189.0	12	8	25.8%	6.1%	3.24	3.55	3.6	4.5	57.9	77.8
4	Corbin Burnes	47.1	3	2	25.3%	6.5%	2.86	3.58	0.9	1.3	16.3	21.1	194.1	13	10	24.7%	7.1%	3.48	3.65	3.6	3.9	54.6	73.0
5	George Kirby	43.0	3	3	25.6%	2.8%	4.18	3.00	1.0	0.5	9.0	16.3	184.0	13	11	23.7%	3.6%	3.67	3.27	4.2	3.2	47.6	72.9
6	Cole Ragans	42.1	2	2	29.8%	8.3%	3.41	2.35	1.3	1.0	12.5	22.6	165.1	10	9	27.9%	8.6%	3.65	3.17	3.9	3.0	45.0	69.4
7	Pablo López	37.1	3	2	30.2%	5.4%	4.35	3.48	0.7	0.3	8.1	12.3	171.1	12	10	27.7%	6.3%	3.73	3.44	3.6	2.8	46.0	66.2
8	Joe Ryan	40.1	1	2	28.4%	3.7%	3.58	3.01	1.1	0.5	9.7	16.4	171.1	10	10	28.7%	5.6%	3.63	3.52	3.8	2.7	46.5	65.1
9	Tanner Houck	45.0	3	3	25.4%	3.9%	2.00	2.07	1.6	1.5	20.1	32.3	146.0	10	10	23.2%	6.6%	3.39	3.30	3.2	2.7	42.1	61.6
10	Yusei Kikuchi	39.1	2	2	26.5%	5.6%	2.76	2.32	1.4	1.2	13.9	23.4	168.1	10	10	26.7%	7.9%	3.80	3.55	3.3	2.6	42.0	59.8

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	42.1	4	0	32.7%	3.7%	1.92	2.07	1.5	1.5	21.4	32.8	165.1	13	7	31.4%	5.6%	2.78	2.69	4.9	4.6	65.2	98.5
2	Luis Castillo	48.0	3	5	28.4%	5.6%	3.56	2.87	1.3	0.8	13.6	22.4	199.0	13	13	27.2%	6.9%	3.48	3.29	4.5	3.7	57.6	84.3
3	Logan Gilbert	48.0	3	0	28.2%	7.3%	1.69	3.24	0.9	2.2	23.0	29.7	189.0	12	8	25.8%	6.1%	3.24	3.55	3.6	4.5	57.9	77.8
4	Corbin Burnes	47.1	3	2	25.3%	6.5%	2.86	3.58	0.9	1.3	16.3	21.1	194.1	13	10	24.7%	7.1%	3.48	3.65	3.6	3.9	54.6	73.0
5	George Kirby	43.0	3	3	25.6%	2.8%	4.18	3.00	1.0	0.5	9.0	16.3	184.0	13	11	23.7%	3.6%	3.67	3.27	4.2	3.2	47.6	72.9
6	Cole Ragans	42.1	2	2	29.8%	8.3%	3.41	2.35	1.3	1.0	12.5	22.6	165.1	10	9	27.9%	8.6%	3.65	3.17	3.9	3.0	45.0	69.4
7	Pablo López	37.1	3	2	30.2%	5.4%	4.35	3.48	0.7	0.3	8.1	12.3	171.1	12	10	27.7%	6.3%	3.73	3.44	3.6	2.8	46.0	66.2
8	Joe Ryan	40.1	1	2	28.4%	3.7%	3.58	3.01	1.1	0.5	9.7	16.4	171.1	10	10	28.7%	5.6%	3.63	3.52	3.8	2.7	46.5	65.1
9	Tanner Houck	45.0	3	3	25.4%	3.9%	2.00	2.07	1.6	1.5	20.1	32.3	146.0	10	10	23.2%	6.6%	3.39	3.30	3.2	2.7	42.1	61.6
10	Yusei Kikuchi	39.1	2	2	26.5%	5.6%	2.76	2.32	1.4	1.2	13.9	23.4	168.1	10	10	26.7%	7.9%	3.80	3.55	3.3	2.6	42.0	59.8

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Zack Wheeler	49.0	4	3	32.1%	6.6%	1.65	2.30	1.8	2.0	25.8	37.8	202.0	15	10	27.4%	6.2%	2.94	3.04	5.6	5.1	72.4	105.2
2	Dylan Cease	49.0	5	2	32.4%	8.6%	2.20	2.28	1.7	1.6	23.5	35.6	188.0	15	9	29.8%	9.3%	3.25	3.23	4.4	4.1	63.7	90.2
3	Tyler Glasnow	50.0	6	1	32.3%	6.7%	2.70	2.46	1.5	1.7	22.3	33.6	164.0	15	6	31.9%	7.2%	3.24	2.95	4.2	3.9	58.9	87.1
4	Sonny Gray	30.0	4	1	33.3%	4.4%	0.90	1.56	1.3	1.4	19.9	29.7	160.0	13	8	26.9%	7.1%	2.98	2.98	4.2	4.0	57.6	84.5
5	Logan Webb	46.0	3	3	18.3%	6.1%	3.51	3.01	0.9	0.9	11.6	19.3	196.0	13	11	19.5%	5.4%	3.49	3.19	4.2	3.7	50.8	79.4
6	Chris Sale	42.1	5	1	30.6%	4.7%	2.99	2.64	1.2	1.3	17.3	26.0	158.1	14	7	29.9%	6.5%	3.41	3.15	3.7	3.5	52.4	76.2
7	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	42.0	4	1	27.8%	4.7%	2.79	3.11	1.0	1.2	16.7	23.2	160.0	14	6	25.8%	5.8%	3.38	3.23	3.6	3.4	50.9	73.4
8	Freddy Peralta	38.1	3	1	32.3%	9.7%	3.53	3.47	0.8	0.9	12.1	16.5	173.1	12	8	30.4%	8.5%	3.43	3.49	3.8	3.8	54.0	73.4
9	Max Fried	38.0	2	1	20.4%	8.9%	4.25	4.10	0.4	0.5	6.2	7.9	177.0	13	7	21.8%	6.6%	3.51	3.48	3.4	3.5	48.3	68.4
10	Ranger Suárez	47.0	6	0	26.9%	3.5%	1.72	2.82	1.4	2.4	25.1	33.9	174.0	15	7	21.4%	6.8%	3.41	3.69	3.1	4.0	51.2	66.9

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Zack Wheeler	49.0	4	3	32.1%	6.6%	1.65	2.30	1.8	2.0	25.8	37.8	202.0	15	10	27.4%	6.2%	2.94	3.04	5.6	5.1	72.4	105.2
2	Dylan Cease	49.0	5	2	32.4%	8.6%	2.20	2.28	1.7	1.6	23.5	35.6	188.0	15	9	29.8%	9.3%	3.25	3.23	4.4	4.1	63.7	90.2
3	Tyler Glasnow	50.0	6	1	32.3%	6.7%	2.70	2.46	1.5	1.7	22.3	33.6	164.0	15	6	31.9%	7.2%	3.24	2.95	4.2	3.9	58.9	87.1
4	Sonny Gray	30.0	4	1	33.3%	4.4%	0.90	1.56	1.3	1.4	19.9	29.7	160.0	13	8	26.9%	7.1%	2.98	2.98	4.2	4.0	57.6	84.5
5	Logan Webb	46.0	3	3	18.3%	6.1%	3.51	3.01	0.9	0.9	11.6	19.3	196.0	13	11	19.5%	5.4%	3.49	3.19	4.2	3.7	50.8	79.4
6	Chris Sale	42.1	5	1	30.6%	4.7%	2.99	2.64	1.2	1.3	17.3	26.0	158.1	14	7	29.9%	6.5%	3.41	3.15	3.7	3.5	52.4	76.2
7	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	42.0	4	1	27.8%	4.7%	2.79	3.11	1.0	1.2	16.7	23.2	160.0	14	6	25.8%	5.8%	3.38	3.23	3.6	3.4	50.9	73.4
8	Freddy Peralta	38.1	3	1	32.3%	9.7%	3.53	3.47	0.8	0.9	12.1	16.5	173.1	12	8	30.4%	8.5%	3.43	3.49	3.8	3.8	54.0	73.4
9	Max Fried	38.0	2	1	20.4%	8.9%	4.25	4.10	0.4	0.5	6.2	7.9	177.0	13	7	21.8%	6.6%	3.51	3.48	3.4	3.5	48.3	68.4
10	Ranger Suárez	47.0	6	0	26.9%	3.5%	1.72	2.82	1.4	2.4	25.1	33.9	174.0	15	7	21.4%	6.8%	3.41	3.69	3.1	4.0	51.2	66.9

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BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG