Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 42.1 | 4 | 0 | 32.7% | 3.7% | 1.92 | 2.07 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 21.4 | 32.8 | 168.1 | 13 | 7 | 29.3% | 5.8% | 3.05 | 2.91 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 59.8 | 89.4 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 48.0 | 3 | 5 | 28.4% | 5.6% | 3.56 | 2.87 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 13.6 | 22.4 | 203.0 | 14 | 12 | 26.7% | 7.0% | 3.55 | 3.39 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 57.7 | 82.8 |
| 3 | Corbin Burnes | 47.1 | 3 | 2 | 25.3% | 6.5% | 2.86 | 3.58 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 16.3 | 21.1 | 202.1 | 13 | 9 | 26.1% | 7.2% | 3.38 | 3.56 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 59.5 | 80.5 |
| 4 | Kevin Gausman | 33.0 | 2 | 3 | 21.5% | 5.6% | 3.81 | 3.67 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 7.6 | 10.7 | 183.0 | 12 | 10 | 27.4% | 6.3% | 3.49 | 3.24 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 53.1 | 78.9 |
| 5 | Logan Gilbert | 48.0 | 3 | 0 | 28.2% | 7.3% | 1.69 | 3.24 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 23.0 | 29.7 | 197.0 | 13 | 7 | 25.4% | 6.0% | 3.29 | 3.63 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 59.4 | 78.4 |
| 6 | George Kirby | 43.0 | 3 | 3 | 25.6% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 3.00 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 9.0 | 16.3 | 195.0 | 13 | 10 | 23.9% | 3.6% | 3.69 | 3.30 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 49.3 | 75.3 |
| 7 | Pablo López | 37.1 | 3 | 2 | 30.2% | 5.4% | 4.35 | 3.48 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 8.1 | 12.3 | 192.1 | 13 | 9 | 27.7% | 6.3% | 3.70 | 3.41 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 51.7 | 75.0 |
| 8 | Zach Eflin | 48.0 | 2 | 4 | 19.5% | 2.0% | 3.75 | 3.74 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 9.9 | 13.9 | 186.0 | 12 | 11 | 22.9% | 3.7% | 3.68 | 3.52 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 46.3 | 66.5 |
| 9 | Framber Valdez | 22.1 | 1 | 1 | 20.4% | 7.5% | 4.05 | 3.97 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 167.1 | 12 | 8 | 23.6% | 7.7% | 3.50 | 3.52 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 47.1 | 65.4 |
| 10 | Cole Ragans | 42.1 | 2 | 2 | 29.8% | 8.3% | 3.41 | 2.35 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 12.5 | 22.6 | 172.1 | 10 | 9 | 26.6% | 9.3% | 3.76 | 3.46 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 43.5 | 63.4 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 42.1 | 4 | 0 | 32.7% | 3.7% | 1.92 | 2.07 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 21.4 | 32.8 | 168.1 | 13 | 7 | 29.3% | 5.8% | 3.05 | 2.91 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 59.8 | 89.4 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 48.0 | 3 | 5 | 28.4% | 5.6% | 3.56 | 2.87 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 13.6 | 22.4 | 203.0 | 14 | 12 | 26.7% | 7.0% | 3.55 | 3.39 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 57.7 | 82.8 |
| 3 | Corbin Burnes | 47.1 | 3 | 2 | 25.3% | 6.5% | 2.86 | 3.58 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 16.3 | 21.1 | 202.1 | 13 | 9 | 26.1% | 7.2% | 3.38 | 3.56 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 59.5 | 80.5 |
| 4 | Kevin Gausman | 33.0 | 2 | 3 | 21.5% | 5.6% | 3.81 | 3.67 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 7.6 | 10.7 | 183.0 | 12 | 10 | 27.4% | 6.3% | 3.49 | 3.24 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 53.1 | 78.9 |
| 5 | Logan Gilbert | 48.0 | 3 | 0 | 28.2% | 7.3% | 1.69 | 3.24 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 23.0 | 29.7 | 197.0 | 13 | 7 | 25.4% | 6.0% | 3.29 | 3.63 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 59.4 | 78.4 |
| 6 | George Kirby | 43.0 | 3 | 3 | 25.6% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 3.00 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 9.0 | 16.3 | 195.0 | 13 | 10 | 23.9% | 3.6% | 3.69 | 3.30 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 49.3 | 75.3 |
| 7 | Pablo López | 37.1 | 3 | 2 | 30.2% | 5.4% | 4.35 | 3.48 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 8.1 | 12.3 | 192.1 | 13 | 9 | 27.7% | 6.3% | 3.70 | 3.41 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 51.7 | 75.0 |
| 8 | Zach Eflin | 48.0 | 2 | 4 | 19.5% | 2.0% | 3.75 | 3.74 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 9.9 | 13.9 | 186.0 | 12 | 11 | 22.9% | 3.7% | 3.68 | 3.52 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 46.3 | 66.5 |
| 9 | Framber Valdez | 22.1 | 1 | 1 | 20.4% | 7.5% | 4.05 | 3.97 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 167.1 | 12 | 8 | 23.6% | 7.7% | 3.50 | 3.52 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 47.1 | 65.4 |
| 10 | Cole Ragans | 42.1 | 2 | 2 | 29.8% | 8.3% | 3.41 | 2.35 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 12.5 | 22.6 | 172.1 | 10 | 9 | 26.6% | 9.3% | 3.76 | 3.46 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 43.5 | 63.4 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 49.0 | 4 | 3 | 32.1% | 6.6% | 1.65 | 2.30 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 25.8 | 37.8 | 203.0 | 15 | 10 | 27.3% | 6.0% | 3.06 | 3.09 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 69.9 | 101.8 |
| 2 | Tyler Glasnow | 50.0 | 6 | 1 | 32.3% | 6.7% | 2.70 | 2.46 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 22.3 | 33.6 | 170.0 | 16 | 6 | 31.6% | 7.4% | 3.28 | 3.09 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 60.4 | 87.1 |
| 3 | Logan Webb | 46.0 | 3 | 3 | 18.3% | 6.1% | 3.51 | 3.01 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 11.6 | 19.3 | 205.0 | 13 | 11 | 21.0% | 5.3% | 3.47 | 3.13 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 54.3 | 85.5 |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 49.0 | 5 | 2 | 32.4% | 8.6% | 2.20 | 2.28 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 23.5 | 35.6 | 182.0 | 13 | 9 | 28.9% | 9.7% | 3.41 | 3.46 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 56.5 | 77.7 |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | 30.0 | 4 | 1 | 33.3% | 4.4% | 0.90 | 1.56 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 19.9 | 29.7 | 170.0 | 13 | 8 | 24.5% | 7.3% | 3.17 | 3.38 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 55.2 | 76.4 |
| 6 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 42.0 | 4 | 1 | 27.8% | 4.7% | 2.79 | 3.11 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 16.7 | 23.2 | 178.0 | 14 | 7 | 26.6% | 6.1% | 3.49 | 3.37 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 53.3 | 75.7 |
| 7 | Shota Imanaga | 41.1 | 5 | 0 | 26.9% | 3.1% | 1.09 | 2.38 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 24.9 | 34.6 | 169.1 | 13 | 6 | 24.9% | 5.9% | 3.19 | 3.48 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 54.8 | 74.0 |
| 8 | Zac Gallen | 38.0 | 4 | 2 | 26.5% | 7.7% | 2.84 | 3.40 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 15.1 | 19.8 | 186.0 | 14 | 9 | 25.4% | 6.8% | 3.53 | 3.50 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 53.3 | 73.9 |
| 9 | Aaron Nola | 49.0 | 4 | 2 | 23.3% | 7.4% | 3.67 | 4.02 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 13.2 | 15.8 | 203.0 | 14 | 9 | 25.3% | 5.8% | 3.86 | 3.68 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 49.4 | 68.0 |
| 10 | Chris Sale | 42.1 | 5 | 1 | 30.6% | 4.7% | 2.99 | 2.64 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 17.3 | 26.0 | 159.1 | 13 | 7 | 29.2% | 6.4% | 3.62 | 3.37 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 47.7 | 67.6 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 49.0 | 4 | 3 | 32.1% | 6.6% | 1.65 | 2.30 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 25.8 | 37.8 | 203.0 | 15 | 10 | 27.3% | 6.0% | 3.06 | 3.09 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 69.9 | 101.8 |
| 2 | Tyler Glasnow | 50.0 | 6 | 1 | 32.3% | 6.7% | 2.70 | 2.46 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 22.3 | 33.6 | 170.0 | 16 | 6 | 31.6% | 7.4% | 3.28 | 3.09 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 60.4 | 87.1 |
| 3 | Logan Webb | 46.0 | 3 | 3 | 18.3% | 6.1% | 3.51 | 3.01 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 11.6 | 19.3 | 205.0 | 13 | 11 | 21.0% | 5.3% | 3.47 | 3.13 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 54.3 | 85.5 |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 49.0 | 5 | 2 | 32.4% | 8.6% | 2.20 | 2.28 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 23.5 | 35.6 | 182.0 | 13 | 9 | 28.9% | 9.7% | 3.41 | 3.46 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 56.5 | 77.7 |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | 30.0 | 4 | 1 | 33.3% | 4.4% | 0.90 | 1.56 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 19.9 | 29.7 | 170.0 | 13 | 8 | 24.5% | 7.3% | 3.17 | 3.38 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 55.2 | 76.4 |
| 6 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 42.0 | 4 | 1 | 27.8% | 4.7% | 2.79 | 3.11 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 16.7 | 23.2 | 178.0 | 14 | 7 | 26.6% | 6.1% | 3.49 | 3.37 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 53.3 | 75.7 |
| 7 | Shota Imanaga | 41.1 | 5 | 0 | 26.9% | 3.1% | 1.09 | 2.38 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 24.9 | 34.6 | 169.1 | 13 | 6 | 24.9% | 5.9% | 3.19 | 3.48 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 54.8 | 74.0 |
| 8 | Zac Gallen | 38.0 | 4 | 2 | 26.5% | 7.7% | 2.84 | 3.40 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 15.1 | 19.8 | 186.0 | 14 | 9 | 25.4% | 6.8% | 3.53 | 3.50 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 53.3 | 73.9 |
| 9 | Aaron Nola | 49.0 | 4 | 2 | 23.3% | 7.4% | 3.67 | 4.02 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 13.2 | 15.8 | 203.0 | 14 | 9 | 25.3% | 5.8% | 3.86 | 3.68 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 49.4 | 68.0 |
| 10 | Chris Sale | 42.1 | 5 | 1 | 30.6% | 4.7% | 2.99 | 2.64 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 17.3 | 26.0 | 159.1 | 13 | 7 | 29.2% | 6.4% | 3.62 | 3.37 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 47.7 | 67.6 |
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