Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 36.1 | 4 | 0 | 29.7% | 4.3% | 1.74 | 2.21 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 19.2 | 28.4 | 168.1 | 13 | 7 | 28.2% | 5.8% | 2.94 | 2.85 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 61.2 | 92.0 |
| 2 | Corbin Burnes | 35.0 | 3 | 0 | 25.5% | 5.8% | 2.56 | 3.72 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 14.0 | 17.1 | 198.0 | 13 | 7 | 26.0% | 7.0% | 3.36 | 3.46 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 59.1 | 82.0 |
| 3 | George Kirby | 32.0 | 3 | 2 | 28.4% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 2.09 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 7.8 | 16.4 | 188.0 | 14 | 10 | 24.2% | 3.8% | 3.54 | 3.15 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 52.7 | 81.0 |
| 4 | Logan Gilbert | 40.0 | 2 | 0 | 29.3% | 6.0% | 2.03 | 3.28 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 17.4 | 22.8 | 199.0 | 11 | 8 | 24.9% | 6.1% | 3.26 | 3.59 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 58.6 | 78.7 |
| 5 | Luis Castillo | 34.1 | 2 | 4 | 28.8% | 4.8% | 4.21 | 3.24 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 7.3 | 12.1 | 194.1 | 13 | 12 | 26.3% | 6.6% | 3.57 | 3.43 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 54.3 | 77.3 |
| 6 | Framber Valdez | 17.0 | 1 | 0 | 23.5% | 8.8% | 2.63 | 2.71 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 6.2 | 9.5 | 169.0 | 12 | 6 | 23.1% | 8.1% | 3.25 | 3.39 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 51.8 | 72.6 |
| 7 | Pablo López | 31.1 | 2 | 2 | 29.4% | 5.6% | 4.90 | 3.98 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 188.1 | 12 | 10 | 27.6% | 6.3% | 3.83 | 3.47 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 47.4 | 69.0 |
| 8 | Zach Eflin | 35.0 | 1 | 3 | 20.3% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 3.75 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 182.0 | 11 | 11 | 22.6% | 3.9% | 3.61 | 3.47 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 45.9 | 66.8 |
| 9 | Tanner Houck | 39.0 | 3 | 2 | 26.5% | 3.2% | 1.61 | 2.03 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 19.6 | 30.4 | 159.0 | 11 | 9 | 24.3% | 6.6% | 3.45 | 3.32 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 45.7 | 66.5 |
| 10 | Joe Ryan | 28.1 | 1 | 1 | 32.8% | 3.4% | 3.51 | 2.86 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 7.9 | 13.0 | 174.1 | 11 | 9 | 28.4% | 5.7% | 3.72 | 3.48 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 46.4 | 66.1 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 36.1 | 4 | 0 | 29.7% | 4.3% | 1.74 | 2.21 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 19.2 | 28.4 | 168.1 | 13 | 7 | 28.2% | 5.8% | 2.94 | 2.85 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 61.2 | 92.0 |
| 2 | Corbin Burnes | 35.0 | 3 | 0 | 25.5% | 5.8% | 2.56 | 3.72 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 14.0 | 17.1 | 198.0 | 13 | 7 | 26.0% | 7.0% | 3.36 | 3.46 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 59.1 | 82.0 |
| 3 | George Kirby | 32.0 | 3 | 2 | 28.4% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 2.09 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 7.8 | 16.4 | 188.0 | 14 | 10 | 24.2% | 3.8% | 3.54 | 3.15 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 52.7 | 81.0 |
| 4 | Logan Gilbert | 40.0 | 2 | 0 | 29.3% | 6.0% | 2.03 | 3.28 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 17.4 | 22.8 | 199.0 | 11 | 8 | 24.9% | 6.1% | 3.26 | 3.59 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 58.6 | 78.7 |
| 5 | Luis Castillo | 34.1 | 2 | 4 | 28.8% | 4.8% | 4.21 | 3.24 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 7.3 | 12.1 | 194.1 | 13 | 12 | 26.3% | 6.6% | 3.57 | 3.43 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 54.3 | 77.3 |
| 6 | Framber Valdez | 17.0 | 1 | 0 | 23.5% | 8.8% | 2.63 | 2.71 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 6.2 | 9.5 | 169.0 | 12 | 6 | 23.1% | 8.1% | 3.25 | 3.39 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 51.8 | 72.6 |
| 7 | Pablo López | 31.1 | 2 | 2 | 29.4% | 5.6% | 4.90 | 3.98 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 188.1 | 12 | 10 | 27.6% | 6.3% | 3.83 | 3.47 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 47.4 | 69.0 |
| 8 | Zach Eflin | 35.0 | 1 | 3 | 20.3% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 3.75 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 182.0 | 11 | 11 | 22.6% | 3.9% | 3.61 | 3.47 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 45.9 | 66.8 |
| 9 | Tanner Houck | 39.0 | 3 | 2 | 26.5% | 3.2% | 1.61 | 2.03 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 19.6 | 30.4 | 159.0 | 11 | 9 | 24.3% | 6.6% | 3.45 | 3.32 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 45.7 | 66.5 |
| 10 | Joe Ryan | 28.1 | 1 | 1 | 32.8% | 3.4% | 3.51 | 2.86 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 7.9 | 13.0 | 174.1 | 11 | 9 | 28.4% | 5.7% | 3.72 | 3.48 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 46.4 | 66.1 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 37.0 | 2 | 3 | 31.1% | 7.4% | 1.94 | 2.45 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 17.1 | 25.6 | 198.0 | 13 | 10 | 26.1% | 6.7% | 3.18 | 3.17 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 63.2 | 92.4 |
| 2 | Logan Webb | 38.1 | 3 | 1 | 17.0% | 4.6% | 2.36 | 2.79 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 14.7 | 22.0 | 204.1 | 14 | 9 | 19.9% | 5.1% | 3.22 | 3.16 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 59.9 | 90.3 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 43.0 | 5 | 1 | 31.5% | 7.1% | 2.72 | 2.76 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 18.8 | 27.1 | 164.0 | 15 | 6 | 31.1% | 7.4% | 3.18 | 3.11 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 59.6 | 85.0 |
| 4 | Shota Imanaga | 27.1 | 4 | 0 | 25.9% | 2.8% | 0.99 | 2.41 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 17.4 | 23.7 | 167.1 | 13 | 7 | 25.3% | 5.8% | 3.18 | 3.38 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 55.0 | 75.7 |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | 23.0 | 3 | 1 | 36.0% | 4.5% | 1.17 | 1.49 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 14.8 | 22.5 | 168.0 | 12 | 8 | 24.8% | 7.1% | 3.16 | 3.35 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 54.3 | 75.7 |
| 6 | Dylan Cease | 35.1 | 3 | 2 | 28.8% | 10.1% | 2.81 | 2.84 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 13.6 | 20.1 | 177.1 | 12 | 9 | 28.6% | 10.0% | 3.45 | 3.46 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 53.7 | 74.2 |
| 7 | Ranger Suárez | 41.0 | 5 | 0 | 27.8% | 3.5% | 1.32 | 2.62 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 23.5 | 32.1 | 177.0 | 13 | 7 | 22.3% | 7.0% | 3.20 | 3.55 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 54.7 | 73.4 |
| 8 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 28.0 | 2 | 1 | 31.9% | 5.2% | 3.54 | 2.68 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 8.7 | 14.4 | 174.0 | 13 | 7 | 27.2% | 5.7% | 3.62 | 3.41 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 49.2 | 70.3 |
| 9 | Zac Gallen | 32.0 | 3 | 2 | 26.3% | 6.8% | 3.38 | 3.56 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 10.5 | 13.9 | 191.0 | 14 | 10 | 24.3% | 6.9% | 3.63 | 3.69 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 51.9 | 69.1 |
| 10 | Aaron Nola | 39.0 | 4 | 1 | 22.9% | 7.0% | 3.22 | 4.51 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 201.0 | 14 | 10 | 24.3% | 5.7% | 3.80 | 3.77 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 49.6 | 66.0 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 37.0 | 2 | 3 | 31.1% | 7.4% | 1.94 | 2.45 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 17.1 | 25.6 | 198.0 | 13 | 10 | 26.1% | 6.7% | 3.18 | 3.17 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 63.2 | 92.4 |
| 2 | Logan Webb | 38.1 | 3 | 1 | 17.0% | 4.6% | 2.36 | 2.79 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 14.7 | 22.0 | 204.1 | 14 | 9 | 19.9% | 5.1% | 3.22 | 3.16 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 59.9 | 90.3 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 43.0 | 5 | 1 | 31.5% | 7.1% | 2.72 | 2.76 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 18.8 | 27.1 | 164.0 | 15 | 6 | 31.1% | 7.4% | 3.18 | 3.11 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 59.6 | 85.0 |
| 4 | Shota Imanaga | 27.1 | 4 | 0 | 25.9% | 2.8% | 0.99 | 2.41 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 17.4 | 23.7 | 167.1 | 13 | 7 | 25.3% | 5.8% | 3.18 | 3.38 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 55.0 | 75.7 |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | 23.0 | 3 | 1 | 36.0% | 4.5% | 1.17 | 1.49 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 14.8 | 22.5 | 168.0 | 12 | 8 | 24.8% | 7.1% | 3.16 | 3.35 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 54.3 | 75.7 |
| 6 | Dylan Cease | 35.1 | 3 | 2 | 28.8% | 10.1% | 2.81 | 2.84 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 13.6 | 20.1 | 177.1 | 12 | 9 | 28.6% | 10.0% | 3.45 | 3.46 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 53.7 | 74.2 |
| 7 | Ranger Suárez | 41.0 | 5 | 0 | 27.8% | 3.5% | 1.32 | 2.62 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 23.5 | 32.1 | 177.0 | 13 | 7 | 22.3% | 7.0% | 3.20 | 3.55 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 54.7 | 73.4 |
| 8 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 28.0 | 2 | 1 | 31.9% | 5.2% | 3.54 | 2.68 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 8.7 | 14.4 | 174.0 | 13 | 7 | 27.2% | 5.7% | 3.62 | 3.41 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 49.2 | 70.3 |
| 9 | Zac Gallen | 32.0 | 3 | 2 | 26.3% | 6.8% | 3.38 | 3.56 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 10.5 | 13.9 | 191.0 | 14 | 10 | 24.3% | 6.9% | 3.63 | 3.69 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 51.9 | 69.1 |
| 10 | Aaron Nola | 39.0 | 4 | 1 | 22.9% | 7.0% | 3.22 | 4.51 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 201.0 | 14 | 10 | 24.3% | 5.7% | 3.80 | 3.77 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 49.6 | 66.0 |
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