Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Luis Castillo | 54.0 | 4 | 5 | 29.0% | 5.0% | 3.33 | 3.04 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 17.4 | 26.3 | 193.0 | 15 | 11 | 27.1% | 6.3% | 3.31 | 3.20 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 62.0 | 89.9 |
| 2 | Tarik Skubal | 49.0 | 5 | 0 | 31.6% | 4.2% | 2.02 | 2.01 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 24.5 | 38.1 | 159.0 | 12 | 5 | 28.3% | 5.2% | 3.00 | 2.68 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 56.6 | 88.8 |
| 3 | Corbin Burnes | 53.1 | 3 | 2 | 23.3% | 6.7% | 2.71 | 3.52 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 18.5 | 24.3 | 196.1 | 11 | 8 | 24.9% | 7.1% | 3.35 | 3.29 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 56.0 | 82.4 |
| 4 | George Kirby | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 25.1% | 2.5% | 3.59 | 2.85 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 14.1 | 23.3 | 185.0 | 14 | 10 | 23.3% | 3.3% | 3.50 | 3.15 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 52.1 | 80.0 |
| 5 | Logan Gilbert | 58.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.09 | 3.50 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 24.6 | 197.1 | 11 | 8 | 24.2% | 7.0% | 3.42 | 3.56 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 54.0 | 74.7 |
| 6 | Pablo López | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 28.7% | 4.0% | 3.95 | 3.15 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 12.8 | 20.4 | 188.0 | 12 | 9 | 27.4% | 5.3% | 3.78 | 3.23 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 48.0 | 74.6 |
| 7 | Tanner Houck | 58.0 | 3 | 5 | 24.3% | 4.7% | 2.17 | 2.20 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 23.7 | 38.6 | 167.0 | 11 | 12 | 24.2% | 6.6% | 3.45 | 3.12 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 47.4 | 73.1 |
| 8 | Framber Valdez | 36.1 | 3 | 1 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 2.98 | 3.27 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 12.2 | 17.1 | 172.1 | 14 | 6 | 21.4% | 8.0% | 3.29 | 3.50 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 52.4 | 71.6 |
| 9 | Jon Gray | 52.0 | 2 | 1 | 24.1% | 6.5% | 2.08 | 2.42 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 21.2 | 33.2 | 164.0 | 8 | 6 | 23.8% | 7.1% | 3.40 | 3.21 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 44.4 | 68.0 |
| 10 | Zach Eflin | 53.0 | 3 | 4 | 18.6% | 1.8% | 3.91 | 3.81 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 10.6 | 14.7 | 179.0 | 13 | 10 | 21.6% | 3.0% | 3.72 | 3.44 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 44.4 | 65.5 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Luis Castillo | 54.0 | 4 | 5 | 29.0% | 5.0% | 3.33 | 3.04 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 17.4 | 26.3 | 193.0 | 15 | 11 | 27.1% | 6.3% | 3.31 | 3.20 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 62.0 | 89.9 |
| 2 | Tarik Skubal | 49.0 | 5 | 0 | 31.6% | 4.2% | 2.02 | 2.01 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 24.5 | 38.1 | 159.0 | 12 | 5 | 28.3% | 5.2% | 3.00 | 2.68 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 56.6 | 88.8 |
| 3 | Corbin Burnes | 53.1 | 3 | 2 | 23.3% | 6.7% | 2.71 | 3.52 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 18.5 | 24.3 | 196.1 | 11 | 8 | 24.9% | 7.1% | 3.35 | 3.29 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 56.0 | 82.4 |
| 4 | George Kirby | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 25.1% | 2.5% | 3.59 | 2.85 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 14.1 | 23.3 | 185.0 | 14 | 10 | 23.3% | 3.3% | 3.50 | 3.15 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 52.1 | 80.0 |
| 5 | Logan Gilbert | 58.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.09 | 3.50 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 24.6 | 197.1 | 11 | 8 | 24.2% | 7.0% | 3.42 | 3.56 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 54.0 | 74.7 |
| 6 | Pablo López | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 28.7% | 4.0% | 3.95 | 3.15 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 12.8 | 20.4 | 188.0 | 12 | 9 | 27.4% | 5.3% | 3.78 | 3.23 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 48.0 | 74.6 |
| 7 | Tanner Houck | 58.0 | 3 | 5 | 24.3% | 4.7% | 2.17 | 2.20 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 23.7 | 38.6 | 167.0 | 11 | 12 | 24.2% | 6.6% | 3.45 | 3.12 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 47.4 | 73.1 |
| 8 | Framber Valdez | 36.1 | 3 | 1 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 2.98 | 3.27 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 12.2 | 17.1 | 172.1 | 14 | 6 | 21.4% | 8.0% | 3.29 | 3.50 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 52.4 | 71.6 |
| 9 | Jon Gray | 52.0 | 2 | 1 | 24.1% | 6.5% | 2.08 | 2.42 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 21.2 | 33.2 | 164.0 | 8 | 6 | 23.8% | 7.1% | 3.40 | 3.21 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 44.4 | 68.0 |
| 10 | Zach Eflin | 53.0 | 3 | 4 | 18.6% | 1.8% | 3.91 | 3.81 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 10.6 | 14.7 | 179.0 | 13 | 10 | 21.6% | 3.0% | 3.72 | 3.44 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 44.4 | 65.5 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Dylan Cease | 55.0 | 5 | 3 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 2.45 | 2.33 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 24.3 | 37.6 | 178.0 | 14 | 8 | 30.4% | 9.2% | 3.13 | 3.02 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 63.1 | 92.3 |
| 2 | Tyler Glasnow | 57.0 | 6 | 1 | 33.6% | 6.9% | 2.53 | 2.48 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 25.8 | 38.6 | 167.0 | 16 | 5 | 31.8% | 7.2% | 3.07 | 2.99 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 63.7 | 91.7 |
| 3 | Zack Wheeler | 53.0 | 4 | 3 | 30.0% | 7.4% | 2.54 | 2.71 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 22.0 | 32.6 | 192.0 | 14 | 9 | 26.6% | 7.1% | 3.28 | 3.08 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 61.1 | 91.5 |
| 4 | Logan Webb | 59.0 | 4 | 4 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 2.92 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 28.6 | 203.0 | 15 | 10 | 19.9% | 5.9% | 3.28 | 3.12 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 59.4 | 90.6 |
| 5 | Shota Imanaga | 46.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.9% | 4.4% | 0.97 | 2.27 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 28.2 | 39.7 | 163.1 | 12 | 4 | 26.5% | 6.0% | 2.70 | 2.94 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 62.3 | 90.5 |
| 6 | Ranger Suárez | 59.0 | 8 | 0 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 1.37 | 2.69 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 34.3 | 46.2 | 177.0 | 16 | 5 | 22.8% | 6.7% | 2.95 | 3.36 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 62.9 | 85.3 |
| 7 | Chris Sale | 49.1 | 6 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.1% | 2.56 | 2.42 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 22.7 | 34.1 | 159.1 | 15 | 5 | 30.4% | 5.7% | 3.22 | 3.05 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 57.3 | 83.0 |
| 8 | Aaron Nola | 58.0 | 5 | 2 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 3.10 | 3.56 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 19.5 | 25.6 | 200.0 | 14 | 9 | 24.7% | 5.5% | 3.74 | 3.32 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 51.2 | 77.4 |
| 9 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 47.1 | 4 | 1 | 27.5% | 5.2% | 3.24 | 3.22 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 15.9 | 22.6 | 180.1 | 15 | 6 | 26.0% | 5.3% | 3.55 | 3.34 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 52.8 | 76.1 |
| 10 | Sonny Gray | 41.0 | 5 | 2 | 31.9% | 4.8% | 3.07 | 2.77 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 16.8 | 24.8 | 167.0 | 13 | 7 | 24.8% | 6.5% | 3.39 | 3.46 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 50.6 | 70.0 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Dylan Cease | 55.0 | 5 | 3 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 2.45 | 2.33 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 24.3 | 37.6 | 178.0 | 14 | 8 | 30.4% | 9.2% | 3.13 | 3.02 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 63.1 | 92.3 |
| 2 | Tyler Glasnow | 57.0 | 6 | 1 | 33.6% | 6.9% | 2.53 | 2.48 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 25.8 | 38.6 | 167.0 | 16 | 5 | 31.8% | 7.2% | 3.07 | 2.99 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 63.7 | 91.7 |
| 3 | Zack Wheeler | 53.0 | 4 | 3 | 30.0% | 7.4% | 2.54 | 2.71 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 22.0 | 32.6 | 192.0 | 14 | 9 | 26.6% | 7.1% | 3.28 | 3.08 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 61.1 | 91.5 |
| 4 | Logan Webb | 59.0 | 4 | 4 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 2.92 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 28.6 | 203.0 | 15 | 10 | 19.9% | 5.9% | 3.28 | 3.12 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 59.4 | 90.6 |
| 5 | Shota Imanaga | 46.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.9% | 4.4% | 0.97 | 2.27 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 28.2 | 39.7 | 163.1 | 12 | 4 | 26.5% | 6.0% | 2.70 | 2.94 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 62.3 | 90.5 |
| 6 | Ranger Suárez | 59.0 | 8 | 0 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 1.37 | 2.69 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 34.3 | 46.2 | 177.0 | 16 | 5 | 22.8% | 6.7% | 2.95 | 3.36 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 62.9 | 85.3 |
| 7 | Chris Sale | 49.1 | 6 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.1% | 2.56 | 2.42 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 22.7 | 34.1 | 159.1 | 15 | 5 | 30.4% | 5.7% | 3.22 | 3.05 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 57.3 | 83.0 |
| 8 | Aaron Nola | 58.0 | 5 | 2 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 3.10 | 3.56 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 19.5 | 25.6 | 200.0 | 14 | 9 | 24.7% | 5.5% | 3.74 | 3.32 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 51.2 | 77.4 |
| 9 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 47.1 | 4 | 1 | 27.5% | 5.2% | 3.24 | 3.22 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 15.9 | 22.6 | 180.1 | 15 | 6 | 26.0% | 5.3% | 3.55 | 3.34 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 52.8 | 76.1 |
| 10 | Sonny Gray | 41.0 | 5 | 2 | 31.9% | 4.8% | 3.07 | 2.77 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 16.8 | 24.8 | 167.0 | 13 | 7 | 24.8% | 6.5% | 3.39 | 3.46 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 50.6 | 70.0 |
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