Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	79.1	8	1	31.1%	4.9%	1.93	2.18	2.7	3.1	40.2	60.6	177.1	15	7	30.3%	5.4%	2.54	2.56	5.4	5.6	74.9	113.0
2	Tanner Houck	85.0	6	5	25.0%	4.5%	1.91	2.21	2.9	3.2	38.9	60.5	186.0	13	11	23.0%	6.0%	3.05	3.03	4.5	4.5	60.5	90.9
3	Corbin Burnes	86.1	7	2	24.0%	6.5%	2.09	3.21	2.0	2.9	38.3	50.7	202.1	15	9	23.7%	6.8%	3.03	3.46	4.2	4.9	67.6	90.9
4	Cole Ragans	79.0	4	4	30.2%	7.7%	3.08	2.30	2.6	2.2	26.3	45.6	176.0	10	9	27.9%	8.1%	3.43	2.93	4.6	3.8	51.4	82.1
5	Joe Ryan	79.0	4	5	27.4%	4.2%	3.30	3.49	1.6	1.5	23.0	31.8	188.0	11	11	28.4%	5.1%	3.45	3.49	4.1	3.6	54.3	75.3
6	Luis Gil	75.0	8	1	30.7%	11.9%	2.04	3.05	1.9	2.9	37.5	49.6	144.0	13	5	29.4%	11.0%	2.88	3.35	3.0	3.9	56.1	74.4
7	Garrett Crochet	75.1	6	5	34.3%	5.7%	3.35	2.75	2.3	1.8	25.9	40.5	152.1	11	11	32.1%	7.0%	3.43	3.04	4.0	3.3	48.9	73.6
8	George Kirby	80.0	5	5	23.9%	2.1%	3.82	3.03	1.9	1.2	18.8	32.0	186.0	12	11	23.6%	3.1%	3.63	3.26	4.3	3.4	47.7	73.5
9	Jack Flaherty	72.1	3	4	33.5%	3.6%	3.24	2.70	1.9	1.6	22.5	37.0	180.1	9	11	29.0%	6.3%	3.65	3.35	3.8	3.1	47.4	70.4
10	Logan Gilbert	90.0	3	4	24.1%	5.7%	3.20	3.56	1.4	2.0	24.4	33.9	198.0	10	10	23.7%	5.6%	3.54	3.61	3.4	3.6	49.8	69.5

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	79.1	8	1	31.1%	4.9%	1.93	2.18	2.7	3.1	40.2	60.6	177.1	15	7	30.3%	5.4%	2.54	2.56	5.4	5.6	74.9	113.0
2	Tanner Houck	85.0	6	5	25.0%	4.5%	1.91	2.21	2.9	3.2	38.9	60.5	186.0	13	11	23.0%	6.0%	3.05	3.03	4.5	4.5	60.5	90.9
3	Corbin Burnes	86.1	7	2	24.0%	6.5%	2.09	3.21	2.0	2.9	38.3	50.7	202.1	15	9	23.7%	6.8%	3.03	3.46	4.2	4.9	67.6	90.9
4	Cole Ragans	79.0	4	4	30.2%	7.7%	3.08	2.30	2.6	2.2	26.3	45.6	176.0	10	9	27.9%	8.1%	3.43	2.93	4.6	3.8	51.4	82.1
5	Joe Ryan	79.0	4	5	27.4%	4.2%	3.30	3.49	1.6	1.5	23.0	31.8	188.0	11	11	28.4%	5.1%	3.45	3.49	4.1	3.6	54.3	75.3
6	Luis Gil	75.0	8	1	30.7%	11.9%	2.04	3.05	1.9	2.9	37.5	49.6	144.0	13	5	29.4%	11.0%	2.88	3.35	3.0	3.9	56.1	74.4
7	Garrett Crochet	75.1	6	5	34.3%	5.7%	3.35	2.75	2.3	1.8	25.9	40.5	152.1	11	11	32.1%	7.0%	3.43	3.04	4.0	3.3	48.9	73.6
8	George Kirby	80.0	5	5	23.9%	2.1%	3.82	3.03	1.9	1.2	18.8	32.0	186.0	12	11	23.6%	3.1%	3.63	3.26	4.3	3.4	47.7	73.5
9	Jack Flaherty	72.1	3	4	33.5%	3.6%	3.24	2.70	1.9	1.6	22.5	37.0	180.1	9	11	29.0%	6.3%	3.65	3.35	3.8	3.1	47.4	70.4
10	Logan Gilbert	90.0	3	4	24.1%	5.7%	3.20	3.56	1.4	2.0	24.4	33.9	198.0	10	10	23.7%	5.6%	3.54	3.61	3.4	3.6	49.8	69.5

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Zack Wheeler	87.1	8	3	27.7%	7.9%	2.17	2.89	2.5	3.3	40.1	55.7	210.1	17	8	26.6%	6.9%	2.87	3.12	5.4	5.8	77.5	109.6
2	Chris Sale	74.1	8	2	31.1%	3.7%	3.03	2.32	2.3	2.3	29.3	47.3	180.1	17	6	30.6%	5.5%	3.30	2.78	5.0	4.4	63.5	97.9
3	Logan Webb	86.0	5	5	20.7%	5.7%	2.93	2.66	2.1	2.2	27.3	44.9	202.0	13	11	20.4%	5.2%	3.21	2.90	4.9	4.6	58.9	94.9
4	Ranger Suárez	79.1	10	1	28.0%	5.6%	1.82	2.61	2.5	3.4	42.1	58.7	183.1	17	6	24.8%	6.8%	2.90	3.23	4.2	5.1	67.9	93.8
5	Tyler Glasnow	86.0	6	5	34.5%	7.1%	3.24	2.79	2.3	2.2	29.6	45.9	177.0	14	8	33.1%	7.1%	3.36	3.00	4.4	4.1	59.8	89.2
6	Max Fried	78.1	6	3	22.4%	7.7%	3.22	3.38	1.4	1.9	24.1	33.8	194.1	16	7	22.9%	6.8%	3.24	3.28	4.1	4.5	61.1	87.4
7	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	72.0	6	2	28.3%	5.5%	3.00	2.62	2.1	2.0	26.3	41.3	171.0	14	6	26.6%	5.7%	3.26	2.95	4.4	3.9	56.1	85.5
8	Dylan Cease	83.0	6	5	30.3%	6.9%	3.36	3.02	2.0	1.6	26.6	40.3	194.0	14	10	29.2%	8.1%	3.53	3.39	4.2	3.5	58.2	82.2
9	Sonny Gray	61.1	7	4	32.8%	7.6%	3.24	2.71	1.6	1.0	23.8	35.9	163.1	14	10	28.2%	7.6%	3.42	3.13	3.8	3.0	52.5	77.4
10	Aaron Nola	84.0	8	2	23.1%	6.7%	2.78	3.82	1.3	2.5	31.6	38.0	201.0	16	8	23.6%	5.9%	3.45	3.82	3.4	4.2	58.6	73.7

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Zack Wheeler	87.1	8	3	27.7%	7.9%	2.17	2.89	2.5	3.3	40.1	55.7	210.1	17	8	26.6%	6.9%	2.87	3.12	5.4	5.8	77.5	109.6
2	Chris Sale	74.1	8	2	31.1%	3.7%	3.03	2.32	2.3	2.3	29.3	47.3	180.1	17	6	30.6%	5.5%	3.30	2.78	5.0	4.4	63.5	97.9
3	Logan Webb	86.0	5	5	20.7%	5.7%	2.93	2.66	2.1	2.2	27.3	44.9	202.0	13	11	20.4%	5.2%	3.21	2.90	4.9	4.6	58.9	94.9
4	Ranger Suárez	79.1	10	1	28.0%	5.6%	1.82	2.61	2.5	3.4	42.1	58.7	183.1	17	6	24.8%	6.8%	2.90	3.23	4.2	5.1	67.9	93.8
5	Tyler Glasnow	86.0	6	5	34.5%	7.1%	3.24	2.79	2.3	2.2	29.6	45.9	177.0	14	8	33.1%	7.1%	3.36	3.00	4.4	4.1	59.8	89.2
6	Max Fried	78.1	6	3	22.4%	7.7%	3.22	3.38	1.4	1.9	24.1	33.8	194.1	16	7	22.9%	6.8%	3.24	3.28	4.1	4.5	61.1	87.4
7	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	72.0	6	2	28.3%	5.5%	3.00	2.62	2.1	2.0	26.3	41.3	171.0	14	6	26.6%	5.7%	3.26	2.95	4.4	3.9	56.1	85.5
8	Dylan Cease	83.0	6	5	30.3%	6.9%	3.36	3.02	2.0	1.6	26.6	40.3	194.0	14	10	29.2%	8.1%	3.53	3.39	4.2	3.5	58.2	82.2
9	Sonny Gray	61.1	7	4	32.8%	7.6%	3.24	2.71	1.6	1.0	23.8	35.9	163.1	14	10	28.2%	7.6%	3.42	3.13	3.8	3.0	52.5	77.4
10	Aaron Nola	84.0	8	2	23.1%	6.7%	2.78	3.82	1.3	2.5	31.6	38.0	201.0	16	8	23.6%	5.9%	3.45	3.82	3.4	4.2	58.6	73.7

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BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM	PIT	SDP
PHI	STL	SFG