Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 67.0 | 7 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.3% | 2.01 | 2.05 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 33.5 | 51.8 | 166.0 | 14 | 6 | 28.7% | 5.0% | 2.82 | 2.51 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 63.9 | 100.6 |
| 2 | Corbin Burnes | 72.1 | 5 | 2 | 24.7% | 6.9% | 2.37 | 3.07 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 29.2 | 40.7 | 200.1 | 12 | 7 | 25.3% | 7.2% | 3.10 | 3.11 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 63.7 | 94.6 |
| 3 | Tanner Houck | 71.0 | 4 | 5 | 24.4% | 4.6% | 1.90 | 2.12 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 31.4 | 50.2 | 173.0 | 12 | 11 | 24.2% | 6.3% | 3.17 | 2.94 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 54.9 | 84.9 |
| 4 | Luis Castillo | 71.0 | 4 | 6 | 25.5% | 6.5% | 3.29 | 3.68 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 21.0 | 27.5 | 193.0 | 13 | 12 | 25.7% | 6.8% | 3.40 | 3.53 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 57.0 | 77.9 |
| 5 | Cole Ragans | 67.0 | 4 | 4 | 29.7% | 7.9% | 3.49 | 2.26 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 19.8 | 36.5 | 167.0 | 11 | 10 | 27.1% | 8.4% | 3.56 | 2.88 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 47.6 | 77.6 |
| 6 | Joe Ryan | 67.0 | 4 | 3 | 27.9% | 3.4% | 2.96 | 2.75 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 22.8 | 35.8 | 181.0 | 12 | 10 | 26.5% | 4.9% | 3.53 | 3.21 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 50.8 | 76.8 |
| 7 | Seth Lugo | 78.0 | 9 | 1 | 21.2% | 5.8% | 1.73 | 3.20 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 39.6 | 51.0 | 183.0 | 15 | 7 | 20.3% | 6.3% | 3.10 | 3.65 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 59.0 | 76.4 |
| 8 | Kevin Gausman | 54.0 | 4 | 3 | 24.0% | 6.0% | 4.16 | 3.08 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 11.6 | 20.2 | 175.0 | 13 | 8 | 25.2% | 5.8% | 3.70 | 3.27 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 47.1 | 71.1 |
| 9 | Logan Gilbert | 76.1 | 3 | 3 | 23.9% | 6.7% | 3.31 | 3.62 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 20.2 | 27.7 | 199.1 | 10 | 8 | 23.0% | 6.6% | 3.48 | 3.61 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 51.2 | 70.8 |
| 10 | George Kirby | 68.0 | 4 | 5 | 23.3% | 2.2% | 4.10 | 3.33 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 13.5 | 22.4 | 187.0 | 13 | 11 | 22.7% | 3.0% | 3.75 | 3.36 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 45.9 | 69.7 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 67.0 | 7 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.3% | 2.01 | 2.05 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 33.5 | 51.8 | 166.0 | 14 | 6 | 28.7% | 5.0% | 2.82 | 2.51 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 63.9 | 100.6 |
| 2 | Corbin Burnes | 72.1 | 5 | 2 | 24.7% | 6.9% | 2.37 | 3.07 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 29.2 | 40.7 | 200.1 | 12 | 7 | 25.3% | 7.2% | 3.10 | 3.11 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 63.7 | 94.6 |
| 3 | Tanner Houck | 71.0 | 4 | 5 | 24.4% | 4.6% | 1.90 | 2.12 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 31.4 | 50.2 | 173.0 | 12 | 11 | 24.2% | 6.3% | 3.17 | 2.94 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 54.9 | 84.9 |
| 4 | Luis Castillo | 71.0 | 4 | 6 | 25.5% | 6.5% | 3.29 | 3.68 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 21.0 | 27.5 | 193.0 | 13 | 12 | 25.7% | 6.8% | 3.40 | 3.53 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 57.0 | 77.9 |
| 5 | Cole Ragans | 67.0 | 4 | 4 | 29.7% | 7.9% | 3.49 | 2.26 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 19.8 | 36.5 | 167.0 | 11 | 10 | 27.1% | 8.4% | 3.56 | 2.88 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 47.6 | 77.6 |
| 6 | Joe Ryan | 67.0 | 4 | 3 | 27.9% | 3.4% | 2.96 | 2.75 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 22.8 | 35.8 | 181.0 | 12 | 10 | 26.5% | 4.9% | 3.53 | 3.21 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 50.8 | 76.8 |
| 7 | Seth Lugo | 78.0 | 9 | 1 | 21.2% | 5.8% | 1.73 | 3.20 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 39.6 | 51.0 | 183.0 | 15 | 7 | 20.3% | 6.3% | 3.10 | 3.65 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 59.0 | 76.4 |
| 8 | Kevin Gausman | 54.0 | 4 | 3 | 24.0% | 6.0% | 4.16 | 3.08 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 11.6 | 20.2 | 175.0 | 13 | 8 | 25.2% | 5.8% | 3.70 | 3.27 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 47.1 | 71.1 |
| 9 | Logan Gilbert | 76.1 | 3 | 3 | 23.9% | 6.7% | 3.31 | 3.62 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 20.2 | 27.7 | 199.1 | 10 | 8 | 23.0% | 6.6% | 3.48 | 3.61 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 51.2 | 70.8 |
| 10 | George Kirby | 68.0 | 4 | 5 | 23.3% | 2.2% | 4.10 | 3.33 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 13.5 | 22.4 | 187.0 | 13 | 11 | 22.7% | 3.0% | 3.75 | 3.36 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 45.9 | 69.7 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Chris Sale | 63.1 | 8 | 1 | 31.6% | 3.6% | 2.14 | 2.09 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 32.4 | 49.3 | 167.1 | 17 | 5 | 30.7% | 5.3% | 2.91 | 2.74 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 67.4 | 100.1 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 73.1 | 6 | 3 | 29.0% | 7.8% | 2.34 | 2.75 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 32.1 | 46.3 | 197.1 | 15 | 8 | 26.6% | 7.3% | 3.10 | 3.01 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 67.1 | 99.7 |
| 3 | Logan Webb | 72.0 | 4 | 4 | 20.3% | 6.3% | 2.75 | 2.66 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 24.1 | 38.9 | 201.0 | 13 | 9 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 3.09 | 2.93 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 61.7 | 96.9 |
| 4 | Tyler Glasnow | 74.0 | 6 | 3 | 33.2% | 7.3% | 3.04 | 2.63 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 27.5 | 42.8 | 172.0 | 15 | 7 | 31.9% | 7.4% | 3.19 | 2.98 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 61.9 | 91.0 |
| 5 | Ranger Suárez | 72.0 | 9 | 1 | 28.4% | 5.9% | 1.75 | 2.68 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 38.7 | 53.3 | 177.0 | 16 | 6 | 24.3% | 6.9% | 2.95 | 3.28 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 64.0 | 87.9 |
| 6 | Shota Imanaga | 58.0 | 5 | 1 | 25.5% | 4.3% | 1.86 | 2.72 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 27.9 | 39.3 | 162.0 | 11 | 5 | 25.6% | 5.7% | 2.89 | 3.08 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 57.0 | 82.5 |
| 7 | Dylan Cease | 65.1 | 5 | 4 | 31.4% | 7.7% | 3.31 | 2.77 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 21.8 | 34.3 | 175.1 | 13 | 9 | 30.2% | 8.9% | 3.44 | 3.15 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 55.4 | 81.7 |
| 8 | Max Fried | 66.1 | 5 | 2 | 20.6% | 8.0% | 2.99 | 3.32 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 21.5 | 30.2 | 182.1 | 15 | 6 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 3.21 | 3.30 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 56.9 | 81.2 |
| 9 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 59.0 | 5 | 2 | 28.4% | 5.3% | 3.51 | 2.82 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 18.4 | 29.4 | 178.0 | 15 | 7 | 26.6% | 5.3% | 3.54 | 3.17 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 52.9 | 79.3 |
| 10 | Sonny Gray | 52.0 | 7 | 2 | 32.4% | 5.8% | 2.60 | 2.79 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 24.7 | 34.6 | 166.0 | 14 | 7 | 25.9% | 6.8% | 3.14 | 3.43 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 56.6 | 76.4 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Chris Sale | 63.1 | 8 | 1 | 31.6% | 3.6% | 2.14 | 2.09 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 32.4 | 49.3 | 167.1 | 17 | 5 | 30.7% | 5.3% | 2.91 | 2.74 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 67.4 | 100.1 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 73.1 | 6 | 3 | 29.0% | 7.8% | 2.34 | 2.75 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 32.1 | 46.3 | 197.1 | 15 | 8 | 26.6% | 7.3% | 3.10 | 3.01 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 67.1 | 99.7 |
| 3 | Logan Webb | 72.0 | 4 | 4 | 20.3% | 6.3% | 2.75 | 2.66 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 24.1 | 38.9 | 201.0 | 13 | 9 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 3.09 | 2.93 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 61.7 | 96.9 |
| 4 | Tyler Glasnow | 74.0 | 6 | 3 | 33.2% | 7.3% | 3.04 | 2.63 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 27.5 | 42.8 | 172.0 | 15 | 7 | 31.9% | 7.4% | 3.19 | 2.98 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 61.9 | 91.0 |
| 5 | Ranger Suárez | 72.0 | 9 | 1 | 28.4% | 5.9% | 1.75 | 2.68 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 38.7 | 53.3 | 177.0 | 16 | 6 | 24.3% | 6.9% | 2.95 | 3.28 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 64.0 | 87.9 |
| 6 | Shota Imanaga | 58.0 | 5 | 1 | 25.5% | 4.3% | 1.86 | 2.72 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 27.9 | 39.3 | 162.0 | 11 | 5 | 25.6% | 5.7% | 2.89 | 3.08 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 57.0 | 82.5 |
| 7 | Dylan Cease | 65.1 | 5 | 4 | 31.4% | 7.7% | 3.31 | 2.77 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 21.8 | 34.3 | 175.1 | 13 | 9 | 30.2% | 8.9% | 3.44 | 3.15 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 55.4 | 81.7 |
| 8 | Max Fried | 66.1 | 5 | 2 | 20.6% | 8.0% | 2.99 | 3.32 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 21.5 | 30.2 | 182.1 | 15 | 6 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 3.21 | 3.30 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 56.9 | 81.2 |
| 9 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 59.0 | 5 | 2 | 28.4% | 5.3% | 3.51 | 2.82 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 18.4 | 29.4 | 178.0 | 15 | 7 | 26.6% | 5.3% | 3.54 | 3.17 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 52.9 | 79.3 |
| 10 | Sonny Gray | 52.0 | 7 | 2 | 32.4% | 5.8% | 2.60 | 2.79 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 24.7 | 34.6 | 166.0 | 14 | 7 | 25.9% | 6.8% | 3.14 | 3.43 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 56.6 | 76.4 |
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