Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Luis Castillo | 48.0 | 3 | 5 | 28.4% | 5.6% | 3.56 | 2.87 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 13.6 | 22.4 | 197.0 | 14 | 12 | 26.8% | 6.6% | 3.33 | 3.15 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 61.1 | 90.6 |
| 2 | Tarik Skubal | 42.1 | 4 | 0 | 32.7% | 3.7% | 1.92 | 2.07 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 21.4 | 32.8 | 158.1 | 11 | 6 | 28.4% | 5.1% | 3.02 | 2.72 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 55.1 | 86.5 |
| 3 | Logan Gilbert | 48.0 | 3 | 0 | 28.2% | 7.3% | 1.69 | 3.24 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 23.0 | 29.7 | 197.0 | 12 | 6 | 24.2% | 6.7% | 3.06 | 3.50 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 62.8 | 84.6 |
| 4 | Corbin Burnes | 47.1 | 3 | 2 | 25.3% | 6.5% | 2.86 | 3.58 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 16.3 | 21.1 | 197.1 | 12 | 8 | 25.8% | 7.1% | 3.42 | 3.34 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 56.3 | 81.8 |
| 5 | George Kirby | 43.0 | 3 | 3 | 25.6% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 3.00 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 9.0 | 16.3 | 188.0 | 14 | 10 | 23.3% | 3.5% | 3.54 | 3.16 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 51.9 | 79.9 |
| 6 | Zach Eflin | 48.0 | 2 | 4 | 19.5% | 2.0% | 3.75 | 3.74 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 9.9 | 13.9 | 182.0 | 13 | 11 | 22.2% | 3.2% | 3.61 | 3.46 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 47.6 | 68.7 |
| 7 | Kevin Gausman | 33.0 | 2 | 3 | 21.5% | 5.6% | 3.81 | 3.67 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 7.6 | 10.7 | 175.0 | 12 | 9 | 24.9% | 5.7% | 3.65 | 3.48 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 46.9 | 66.8 |
| 8 | Tanner Houck | 45.0 | 3 | 3 | 25.4% | 3.9% | 2.00 | 2.07 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 20.1 | 32.3 | 153.0 | 11 | 10 | 24.7% | 6.6% | 3.53 | 3.26 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 43.3 | 64.5 |
| 9 | Pablo López | 37.1 | 3 | 2 | 30.2% | 5.4% | 4.35 | 3.48 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 8.1 | 12.3 | 182.1 | 11 | 9 | 27.5% | 6.0% | 3.90 | 3.48 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 43.6 | 64.3 |
| 10 | Cole Ragans | 42.1 | 2 | 2 | 29.8% | 8.3% | 3.41 | 2.35 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 12.5 | 22.6 | 161.1 | 9 | 9 | 26.2% | 8.9% | 3.68 | 3.26 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 41.6 | 63.7 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Luis Castillo | 48.0 | 3 | 5 | 28.4% | 5.6% | 3.56 | 2.87 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 13.6 | 22.4 | 197.0 | 14 | 12 | 26.8% | 6.6% | 3.33 | 3.15 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 61.1 | 90.6 |
| 2 | Tarik Skubal | 42.1 | 4 | 0 | 32.7% | 3.7% | 1.92 | 2.07 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 21.4 | 32.8 | 158.1 | 11 | 6 | 28.4% | 5.1% | 3.02 | 2.72 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 55.1 | 86.5 |
| 3 | Logan Gilbert | 48.0 | 3 | 0 | 28.2% | 7.3% | 1.69 | 3.24 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 23.0 | 29.7 | 197.0 | 12 | 6 | 24.2% | 6.7% | 3.06 | 3.50 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 62.8 | 84.6 |
| 4 | Corbin Burnes | 47.1 | 3 | 2 | 25.3% | 6.5% | 2.86 | 3.58 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 16.3 | 21.1 | 197.1 | 12 | 8 | 25.8% | 7.1% | 3.42 | 3.34 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 56.3 | 81.8 |
| 5 | George Kirby | 43.0 | 3 | 3 | 25.6% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 3.00 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 9.0 | 16.3 | 188.0 | 14 | 10 | 23.3% | 3.5% | 3.54 | 3.16 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 51.9 | 79.9 |
| 6 | Zach Eflin | 48.0 | 2 | 4 | 19.5% | 2.0% | 3.75 | 3.74 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 9.9 | 13.9 | 182.0 | 13 | 11 | 22.2% | 3.2% | 3.61 | 3.46 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 47.6 | 68.7 |
| 7 | Kevin Gausman | 33.0 | 2 | 3 | 21.5% | 5.6% | 3.81 | 3.67 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 7.6 | 10.7 | 175.0 | 12 | 9 | 24.9% | 5.7% | 3.65 | 3.48 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 46.9 | 66.8 |
| 8 | Tanner Houck | 45.0 | 3 | 3 | 25.4% | 3.9% | 2.00 | 2.07 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 20.1 | 32.3 | 153.0 | 11 | 10 | 24.7% | 6.6% | 3.53 | 3.26 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 43.3 | 64.5 |
| 9 | Pablo López | 37.1 | 3 | 2 | 30.2% | 5.4% | 4.35 | 3.48 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 8.1 | 12.3 | 182.1 | 11 | 9 | 27.5% | 6.0% | 3.90 | 3.48 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 43.6 | 64.3 |
| 10 | Cole Ragans | 42.1 | 2 | 2 | 29.8% | 8.3% | 3.41 | 2.35 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 12.5 | 22.6 | 161.1 | 9 | 9 | 26.2% | 8.9% | 3.68 | 3.26 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 41.6 | 63.7 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 49.0 | 4 | 3 | 32.1% | 6.6% | 1.65 | 2.30 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 25.8 | 37.8 | 197.0 | 14 | 9 | 27.1% | 6.7% | 3.06 | 2.94 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 67.4 | 101.7 |
| 2 | Dylan Cease | 49.0 | 5 | 2 | 32.4% | 8.6% | 2.20 | 2.28 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 23.5 | 35.6 | 179.0 | 14 | 7 | 29.8% | 9.5% | 3.17 | 3.15 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 62.4 | 89.4 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 50.0 | 6 | 1 | 32.3% | 6.7% | 2.70 | 2.46 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 22.3 | 33.6 | 166.0 | 17 | 5 | 31.1% | 7.1% | 3.20 | 3.07 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 61.9 | 88.2 |
| 4 | Shota Imanaga | 41.1 | 5 | 0 | 26.9% | 3.1% | 1.09 | 2.38 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 24.9 | 34.6 | 164.1 | 13 | 5 | 26.1% | 5.6% | 2.85 | 3.05 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 60.7 | 87.2 |
| 5 | Logan Webb | 46.0 | 3 | 3 | 18.3% | 6.1% | 3.51 | 3.01 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 11.6 | 19.3 | 199.0 | 14 | 10 | 19.9% | 5.5% | 3.44 | 3.19 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 54.1 | 83.2 |
| 6 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 42.0 | 4 | 1 | 27.8% | 4.7% | 2.79 | 3.11 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 16.7 | 23.2 | 184.0 | 16 | 7 | 26.0% | 5.1% | 3.42 | 3.34 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 56.9 | 80.5 |
| 7 | Sonny Gray | 30.0 | 4 | 1 | 33.3% | 4.4% | 0.90 | 1.56 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 19.9 | 29.7 | 163.0 | 12 | 6 | 24.0% | 6.8% | 2.92 | 3.23 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 56.6 | 79.5 |
| 8 | Ranger Suárez | 47.0 | 6 | 0 | 26.9% | 3.5% | 1.72 | 2.82 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 25.1 | 33.9 | 172.0 | 14 | 6 | 22.3% | 6.5% | 3.24 | 3.60 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 53.7 | 70.9 |
| 9 | Chris Sale | 42.1 | 5 | 1 | 30.6% | 4.7% | 2.99 | 2.64 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 17.3 | 26.0 | 156.1 | 14 | 6 | 29.7% | 6.2% | 3.57 | 3.33 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 49.3 | 69.7 |
| 10 | Zac Gallen | 38.0 | 4 | 2 | 26.5% | 7.7% | 2.84 | 3.40 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 15.1 | 19.8 | 179.0 | 14 | 9 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 3.42 | 3.71 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 53.2 | 68.9 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 49.0 | 4 | 3 | 32.1% | 6.6% | 1.65 | 2.30 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 25.8 | 37.8 | 197.0 | 14 | 9 | 27.1% | 6.7% | 3.06 | 2.94 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 67.4 | 101.7 |
| 2 | Dylan Cease | 49.0 | 5 | 2 | 32.4% | 8.6% | 2.20 | 2.28 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 23.5 | 35.6 | 179.0 | 14 | 7 | 29.8% | 9.5% | 3.17 | 3.15 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 62.4 | 89.4 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 50.0 | 6 | 1 | 32.3% | 6.7% | 2.70 | 2.46 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 22.3 | 33.6 | 166.0 | 17 | 5 | 31.1% | 7.1% | 3.20 | 3.07 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 61.9 | 88.2 |
| 4 | Shota Imanaga | 41.1 | 5 | 0 | 26.9% | 3.1% | 1.09 | 2.38 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 24.9 | 34.6 | 164.1 | 13 | 5 | 26.1% | 5.6% | 2.85 | 3.05 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 60.7 | 87.2 |
| 5 | Logan Webb | 46.0 | 3 | 3 | 18.3% | 6.1% | 3.51 | 3.01 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 11.6 | 19.3 | 199.0 | 14 | 10 | 19.9% | 5.5% | 3.44 | 3.19 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 54.1 | 83.2 |
| 6 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 42.0 | 4 | 1 | 27.8% | 4.7% | 2.79 | 3.11 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 16.7 | 23.2 | 184.0 | 16 | 7 | 26.0% | 5.1% | 3.42 | 3.34 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 56.9 | 80.5 |
| 7 | Sonny Gray | 30.0 | 4 | 1 | 33.3% | 4.4% | 0.90 | 1.56 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 19.9 | 29.7 | 163.0 | 12 | 6 | 24.0% | 6.8% | 2.92 | 3.23 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 56.6 | 79.5 |
| 8 | Ranger Suárez | 47.0 | 6 | 0 | 26.9% | 3.5% | 1.72 | 2.82 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 25.1 | 33.9 | 172.0 | 14 | 6 | 22.3% | 6.5% | 3.24 | 3.60 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 53.7 | 70.9 |
| 9 | Chris Sale | 42.1 | 5 | 1 | 30.6% | 4.7% | 2.99 | 2.64 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 17.3 | 26.0 | 156.1 | 14 | 6 | 29.7% | 6.2% | 3.57 | 3.33 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 49.3 | 69.7 |
| 10 | Zac Gallen | 38.0 | 4 | 2 | 26.5% | 7.7% | 2.84 | 3.40 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 15.1 | 19.8 | 179.0 | 14 | 9 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 3.42 | 3.71 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 53.2 | 68.9 |
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