Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 49.0 | 5 | 0 | 31.6% | 4.2% | 2.02 | 2.03 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 24.5 | 37.9 | 170.0 | 13 | 7 | 29.3% | 5.9% | 3.02 | 2.81 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 60.9 | 92.8 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 54.0 | 4 | 5 | 29.0% | 5.0% | 3.33 | 3.06 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 17.4 | 26.1 | 202.0 | 14 | 12 | 26.9% | 6.8% | 3.47 | 3.39 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 59.2 | 84.3 |
| 3 | Corbin Burnes | 53.1 | 3 | 2 | 23.3% | 6.7% | 2.71 | 3.55 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 18.5 | 24.1 | 203.1 | 12 | 9 | 25.6% | 7.2% | 3.32 | 3.50 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 59.7 | 82.2 |
| 4 | Pablo López | 44.0 | 4 | 2 | 31.6% | 4.6% | 3.89 | 3.02 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 12.5 | 19.7 | 192.0 | 14 | 9 | 28.0% | 6.0% | 3.61 | 3.34 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 54.9 | 79.7 |
| 5 | George Kirby | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 25.1% | 2.5% | 3.59 | 2.87 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 14.1 | 23.2 | 194.0 | 14 | 10 | 23.9% | 3.3% | 3.57 | 3.27 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 52.7 | 79.2 |
| 6 | Kevin Gausman | 36.0 | 2 | 3 | 22.6% | 6.1% | 4.99 | 3.80 | 0.5 | -0.4 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 181.0 | 12 | 10 | 27.4% | 6.4% | 3.73 | 3.23 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 48.1 | 73.8 |
| 7 | Logan Gilbert | 58.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.09 | 3.53 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 18.2 | 24.5 | 200.1 | 12 | 9 | 25.3% | 6.4% | 3.60 | 3.68 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 52.4 | 70.6 |
| 8 | Framber Valdez | 29.1 | 2 | 1 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 3.70 | 3.68 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 6.9 | 9.6 | 168.1 | 12 | 7 | 23.2% | 7.7% | 3.42 | 3.43 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 48.3 | 68.3 |
| 9 | Zach Eflin | 53.0 | 3 | 4 | 18.6% | 1.8% | 3.91 | 3.83 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 10.6 | 14.5 | 185.0 | 12 | 11 | 22.5% | 3.6% | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 44.5 | 65.0 |
| 10 | Joe Ryan | 47.1 | 2 | 2 | 28.0% | 3.2% | 3.24 | 2.98 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 13.9 | 21.8 | 181.1 | 11 | 9 | 27.6% | 5.5% | 3.77 | 3.62 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 45.8 | 63.5 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 49.0 | 5 | 0 | 31.6% | 4.2% | 2.02 | 2.03 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 24.5 | 37.9 | 170.0 | 13 | 7 | 29.3% | 5.9% | 3.02 | 2.81 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 60.9 | 92.8 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 54.0 | 4 | 5 | 29.0% | 5.0% | 3.33 | 3.06 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 17.4 | 26.1 | 202.0 | 14 | 12 | 26.9% | 6.8% | 3.47 | 3.39 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 59.2 | 84.3 |
| 3 | Corbin Burnes | 53.1 | 3 | 2 | 23.3% | 6.7% | 2.71 | 3.55 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 18.5 | 24.1 | 203.1 | 12 | 9 | 25.6% | 7.2% | 3.32 | 3.50 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 59.7 | 82.2 |
| 4 | Pablo López | 44.0 | 4 | 2 | 31.6% | 4.6% | 3.89 | 3.02 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 12.5 | 19.7 | 192.0 | 14 | 9 | 28.0% | 6.0% | 3.61 | 3.34 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 54.9 | 79.7 |
| 5 | George Kirby | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 25.1% | 2.5% | 3.59 | 2.87 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 14.1 | 23.2 | 194.0 | 14 | 10 | 23.9% | 3.3% | 3.57 | 3.27 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 52.7 | 79.2 |
| 6 | Kevin Gausman | 36.0 | 2 | 3 | 22.6% | 6.1% | 4.99 | 3.80 | 0.5 | -0.4 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 181.0 | 12 | 10 | 27.4% | 6.4% | 3.73 | 3.23 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 48.1 | 73.8 |
| 7 | Logan Gilbert | 58.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.09 | 3.53 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 18.2 | 24.5 | 200.1 | 12 | 9 | 25.3% | 6.4% | 3.60 | 3.68 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 52.4 | 70.6 |
| 8 | Framber Valdez | 29.1 | 2 | 1 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 3.70 | 3.68 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 6.9 | 9.6 | 168.1 | 12 | 7 | 23.2% | 7.7% | 3.42 | 3.43 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 48.3 | 68.3 |
| 9 | Zach Eflin | 53.0 | 3 | 4 | 18.6% | 1.8% | 3.91 | 3.83 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 10.6 | 14.5 | 185.0 | 12 | 11 | 22.5% | 3.6% | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 44.5 | 65.0 |
| 10 | Joe Ryan | 47.1 | 2 | 2 | 28.0% | 3.2% | 3.24 | 2.98 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 13.9 | 21.8 | 181.1 | 11 | 9 | 27.6% | 5.5% | 3.77 | 3.62 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 45.8 | 63.5 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 53.0 | 4 | 3 | 30.0% | 7.4% | 2.54 | 2.74 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 22.0 | 32.4 | 201.0 | 14 | 10 | 26.8% | 6.2% | 3.27 | 3.14 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 63.4 | 93.8 |
| 2 | Tyler Glasnow | 57.0 | 6 | 1 | 33.6% | 6.9% | 2.53 | 2.50 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 25.8 | 38.5 | 172.0 | 15 | 6 | 32.1% | 7.5% | 3.19 | 3.03 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 61.8 | 89.8 |
| 3 | Logan Webb | 53.0 | 3 | 4 | 18.6% | 6.2% | 3.39 | 2.89 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 13.7 | 23.3 | 204.0 | 12 | 12 | 20.9% | 5.4% | 3.44 | 3.07 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 53.7 | 86.2 |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 55.0 | 5 | 3 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 2.45 | 2.35 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 24.3 | 37.4 | 182.0 | 13 | 9 | 29.2% | 9.5% | 3.46 | 3.37 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 55.7 | 78.5 |
| 5 | Aaron Nola | 58.0 | 5 | 2 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 3.10 | 3.58 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 19.5 | 25.4 | 206.0 | 15 | 9 | 25.4% | 5.6% | 3.67 | 3.55 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 55.1 | 76.9 |
| 6 | Shota Imanaga | 46.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.9% | 4.4% | 0.97 | 2.29 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 28.2 | 39.6 | 169.1 | 12 | 6 | 25.3% | 6.2% | 3.09 | 3.45 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 56.1 | 75.8 |
| 7 | Chris Sale | 49.1 | 6 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.1% | 2.56 | 2.44 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 22.7 | 34.0 | 162.1 | 14 | 7 | 29.4% | 6.2% | 3.44 | 3.24 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 52.5 | 75.1 |
| 8 | Zac Gallen | 44.0 | 5 | 2 | 25.3% | 7.9% | 2.86 | 3.59 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 17.5 | 22.0 | 185.0 | 15 | 8 | 25.2% | 6.9% | 3.50 | 3.51 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 54.5 | 74.8 |
| 9 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 47.1 | 4 | 1 | 27.5% | 5.2% | 3.24 | 3.24 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 15.9 | 22.5 | 178.1 | 14 | 7 | 26.6% | 6.2% | 3.59 | 3.36 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 51.4 | 74.0 |
| 10 | Ranger Suárez | 54.0 | 7 | 0 | 28.1% | 4.1% | 1.50 | 2.61 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 30.5 | 41.8 | 171.0 | 14 | 6 | 22.9% | 7.3% | 3.21 | 3.49 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 54.4 | 73.6 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 53.0 | 4 | 3 | 30.0% | 7.4% | 2.54 | 2.74 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 22.0 | 32.4 | 201.0 | 14 | 10 | 26.8% | 6.2% | 3.27 | 3.14 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 63.4 | 93.8 |
| 2 | Tyler Glasnow | 57.0 | 6 | 1 | 33.6% | 6.9% | 2.53 | 2.50 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 25.8 | 38.5 | 172.0 | 15 | 6 | 32.1% | 7.5% | 3.19 | 3.03 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 61.8 | 89.8 |
| 3 | Logan Webb | 53.0 | 3 | 4 | 18.6% | 6.2% | 3.39 | 2.89 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 13.7 | 23.3 | 204.0 | 12 | 12 | 20.9% | 5.4% | 3.44 | 3.07 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 53.7 | 86.2 |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 55.0 | 5 | 3 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 2.45 | 2.35 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 24.3 | 37.4 | 182.0 | 13 | 9 | 29.2% | 9.5% | 3.46 | 3.37 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 55.7 | 78.5 |
| 5 | Aaron Nola | 58.0 | 5 | 2 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 3.10 | 3.58 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 19.5 | 25.4 | 206.0 | 15 | 9 | 25.4% | 5.6% | 3.67 | 3.55 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 55.1 | 76.9 |
| 6 | Shota Imanaga | 46.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.9% | 4.4% | 0.97 | 2.29 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 28.2 | 39.6 | 169.1 | 12 | 6 | 25.3% | 6.2% | 3.09 | 3.45 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 56.1 | 75.8 |
| 7 | Chris Sale | 49.1 | 6 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.1% | 2.56 | 2.44 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 22.7 | 34.0 | 162.1 | 14 | 7 | 29.4% | 6.2% | 3.44 | 3.24 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 52.5 | 75.1 |
| 8 | Zac Gallen | 44.0 | 5 | 2 | 25.3% | 7.9% | 2.86 | 3.59 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 17.5 | 22.0 | 185.0 | 15 | 8 | 25.2% | 6.9% | 3.50 | 3.51 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 54.5 | 74.8 |
| 9 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 47.1 | 4 | 1 | 27.5% | 5.2% | 3.24 | 3.24 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 15.9 | 22.5 | 178.1 | 14 | 7 | 26.6% | 6.2% | 3.59 | 3.36 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 51.4 | 74.0 |
| 10 | Ranger Suárez | 54.0 | 7 | 0 | 28.1% | 4.1% | 1.50 | 2.61 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 30.5 | 41.8 | 171.0 | 14 | 6 | 22.9% | 7.3% | 3.21 | 3.49 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 54.4 | 73.6 |
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