Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 49.0 | 5 | 0 | 31.6% | 4.2% | 2.02 | 2.01 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 24.5 | 38.1 | 176.0 | 14 | 6 | 30.4% | 5.7% | 2.71 | 2.64 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 70.3 | 106.7 |
| 2 | Pablo López | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 28.7% | 4.0% | 3.95 | 3.15 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 12.8 | 20.4 | 191.0 | 13 | 10 | 27.7% | 5.8% | 3.49 | 3.16 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 56.1 | 84.6 |
| 3 | Corbin Burnes | 53.1 | 3 | 2 | 23.3% | 6.7% | 2.71 | 3.52 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 18.5 | 24.3 | 200.1 | 12 | 10 | 25.1% | 7.2% | 3.28 | 3.45 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 59.7 | 83.0 |
| 4 | Luis Castillo | 54.0 | 4 | 5 | 29.0% | 5.0% | 3.33 | 3.04 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 17.4 | 26.3 | 196.0 | 13 | 13 | 26.5% | 6.4% | 3.40 | 3.39 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 58.4 | 82.6 |
| 5 | George Kirby | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 25.1% | 2.5% | 3.59 | 2.85 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 14.1 | 23.3 | 188.0 | 13 | 11 | 23.9% | 3.5% | 3.49 | 3.26 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 52.3 | 78.3 |
| 6 | Tanner Houck | 58.0 | 3 | 5 | 24.3% | 4.7% | 2.17 | 2.20 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 23.7 | 38.6 | 179.0 | 10 | 12 | 23.1% | 6.7% | 3.32 | 3.16 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 50.8 | 77.5 |
| 7 | Framber Valdez | 36.1 | 3 | 1 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 2.98 | 3.27 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 12.2 | 17.1 | 170.1 | 12 | 7 | 23.2% | 7.7% | 3.17 | 3.25 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 53.3 | 76.9 |
| 8 | Joe Ryan | 47.1 | 2 | 2 | 28.0% | 3.2% | 3.24 | 2.96 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 13.9 | 22.0 | 180.1 | 10 | 9 | 28.1% | 5.3% | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 50.7 | 74.7 |
| 9 | Logan Gilbert | 58.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.09 | 3.50 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 24.6 | 197.1 | 11 | 10 | 25.4% | 6.7% | 3.47 | 3.58 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 53.8 | 74.1 |
| 10 | Yusei Kikuchi | 52.0 | 2 | 3 | 26.3% | 4.8% | 2.60 | 2.57 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 18.5 | 29.6 | 169.0 | 10 | 10 | 26.0% | 7.1% | 3.25 | 3.30 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 51.5 | 73.9 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 49.0 | 5 | 0 | 31.6% | 4.2% | 2.02 | 2.01 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 24.5 | 38.1 | 176.0 | 14 | 6 | 30.4% | 5.7% | 2.71 | 2.64 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 70.3 | 106.7 |
| 2 | Pablo López | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 28.7% | 4.0% | 3.95 | 3.15 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 12.8 | 20.4 | 191.0 | 13 | 10 | 27.7% | 5.8% | 3.49 | 3.16 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 56.1 | 84.6 |
| 3 | Corbin Burnes | 53.1 | 3 | 2 | 23.3% | 6.7% | 2.71 | 3.52 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 18.5 | 24.3 | 200.1 | 12 | 10 | 25.1% | 7.2% | 3.28 | 3.45 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 59.7 | 83.0 |
| 4 | Luis Castillo | 54.0 | 4 | 5 | 29.0% | 5.0% | 3.33 | 3.04 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 17.4 | 26.3 | 196.0 | 13 | 13 | 26.5% | 6.4% | 3.40 | 3.39 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 58.4 | 82.6 |
| 5 | George Kirby | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 25.1% | 2.5% | 3.59 | 2.85 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 14.1 | 23.3 | 188.0 | 13 | 11 | 23.9% | 3.5% | 3.49 | 3.26 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 52.3 | 78.3 |
| 6 | Tanner Houck | 58.0 | 3 | 5 | 24.3% | 4.7% | 2.17 | 2.20 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 23.7 | 38.6 | 179.0 | 10 | 12 | 23.1% | 6.7% | 3.32 | 3.16 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 50.8 | 77.5 |
| 7 | Framber Valdez | 36.1 | 3 | 1 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 2.98 | 3.27 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 12.2 | 17.1 | 170.1 | 12 | 7 | 23.2% | 7.7% | 3.17 | 3.25 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 53.3 | 76.9 |
| 8 | Joe Ryan | 47.1 | 2 | 2 | 28.0% | 3.2% | 3.24 | 2.96 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 13.9 | 22.0 | 180.1 | 10 | 9 | 28.1% | 5.3% | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 50.7 | 74.7 |
| 9 | Logan Gilbert | 58.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.09 | 3.50 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 24.6 | 197.1 | 11 | 10 | 25.4% | 6.7% | 3.47 | 3.58 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 53.8 | 74.1 |
| 10 | Yusei Kikuchi | 52.0 | 2 | 3 | 26.3% | 4.8% | 2.60 | 2.57 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 18.5 | 29.6 | 169.0 | 10 | 10 | 26.0% | 7.1% | 3.25 | 3.30 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 51.5 | 73.9 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tyler Glasnow | 57.0 | 6 | 1 | 33.6% | 6.9% | 2.53 | 2.48 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 25.8 | 38.6 | 177.0 | 15 | 6 | 32.2% | 7.3% | 3.00 | 2.79 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 67.1 | 100.7 |
| 2 | Chris Sale | 49.1 | 6 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.1% | 2.56 | 2.42 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 22.7 | 34.1 | 167.1 | 15 | 6 | 30.5% | 5.8% | 3.01 | 2.85 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 63.2 | 93.9 |
| 3 | Zack Wheeler | 53.0 | 4 | 3 | 30.0% | 7.4% | 2.54 | 2.71 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 22.0 | 32.6 | 196.0 | 13 | 10 | 26.3% | 6.5% | 3.12 | 3.17 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 64.1 | 93.2 |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 55.0 | 5 | 3 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 2.45 | 2.33 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 24.3 | 37.6 | 184.0 | 14 | 10 | 30.3% | 9.2% | 3.18 | 3.15 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 63.6 | 91.3 |
| 5 | Logan Webb | 59.0 | 4 | 4 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 2.92 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 28.6 | 203.0 | 13 | 12 | 20.3% | 6.0% | 3.32 | 3.11 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 56.8 | 88.2 |
| 6 | Shota Imanaga | 46.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.9% | 4.4% | 0.97 | 2.27 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 28.2 | 39.7 | 177.1 | 13 | 7 | 25.8% | 5.8% | 2.95 | 3.24 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 62.3 | 87.0 |
| 7 | Ranger Suárez | 59.0 | 8 | 0 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 1.37 | 2.69 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 34.3 | 46.2 | 184.0 | 16 | 7 | 22.5% | 7.1% | 2.93 | 3.46 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 64.8 | 86.0 |
| 8 | Sonny Gray | 41.0 | 5 | 2 | 31.9% | 4.8% | 3.07 | 2.77 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 16.8 | 24.8 | 173.0 | 14 | 9 | 25.9% | 6.8% | 3.43 | 3.27 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 53.1 | 76.9 |
| 9 | Aaron Nola | 58.0 | 5 | 2 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 3.10 | 3.56 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 19.5 | 25.6 | 201.0 | 14 | 10 | 24.0% | 5.9% | 3.58 | 3.63 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 54.3 | 73.8 |
| 10 | Freddy Peralta | 44.1 | 3 | 1 | 31.9% | 8.8% | 3.67 | 3.09 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 12.9 | 19.8 | 167.1 | 11 | 8 | 30.3% | 8.6% | 3.50 | 3.34 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 50.5 | 72.0 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tyler Glasnow | 57.0 | 6 | 1 | 33.6% | 6.9% | 2.53 | 2.48 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 25.8 | 38.6 | 177.0 | 15 | 6 | 32.2% | 7.3% | 3.00 | 2.79 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 67.1 | 100.7 |
| 2 | Chris Sale | 49.1 | 6 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.1% | 2.56 | 2.42 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 22.7 | 34.1 | 167.1 | 15 | 6 | 30.5% | 5.8% | 3.01 | 2.85 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 63.2 | 93.9 |
| 3 | Zack Wheeler | 53.0 | 4 | 3 | 30.0% | 7.4% | 2.54 | 2.71 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 22.0 | 32.6 | 196.0 | 13 | 10 | 26.3% | 6.5% | 3.12 | 3.17 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 64.1 | 93.2 |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 55.0 | 5 | 3 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 2.45 | 2.33 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 24.3 | 37.6 | 184.0 | 14 | 10 | 30.3% | 9.2% | 3.18 | 3.15 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 63.6 | 91.3 |
| 5 | Logan Webb | 59.0 | 4 | 4 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 2.92 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 28.6 | 203.0 | 13 | 12 | 20.3% | 6.0% | 3.32 | 3.11 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 56.8 | 88.2 |
| 6 | Shota Imanaga | 46.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.9% | 4.4% | 0.97 | 2.27 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 28.2 | 39.7 | 177.1 | 13 | 7 | 25.8% | 5.8% | 2.95 | 3.24 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 62.3 | 87.0 |
| 7 | Ranger Suárez | 59.0 | 8 | 0 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 1.37 | 2.69 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 34.3 | 46.2 | 184.0 | 16 | 7 | 22.5% | 7.1% | 2.93 | 3.46 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 64.8 | 86.0 |
| 8 | Sonny Gray | 41.0 | 5 | 2 | 31.9% | 4.8% | 3.07 | 2.77 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 16.8 | 24.8 | 173.0 | 14 | 9 | 25.9% | 6.8% | 3.43 | 3.27 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 53.1 | 76.9 |
| 9 | Aaron Nola | 58.0 | 5 | 2 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 3.10 | 3.56 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 19.5 | 25.6 | 201.0 | 14 | 10 | 24.0% | 5.9% | 3.58 | 3.63 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 54.3 | 73.8 |
| 10 | Freddy Peralta | 44.1 | 3 | 1 | 31.9% | 8.8% | 3.67 | 3.09 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 12.9 | 19.8 | 167.1 | 11 | 8 | 30.3% | 8.6% | 3.50 | 3.34 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 50.5 | 72.0 |
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