Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 49.0 | 5 | 0 | 31.6% | 4.2% | 2.02 | 2.03 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 24.5 | 37.9 | 168.0 | 13 | 6 | 29.4% | 5.5% | 2.84 | 2.69 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 63.8 | 97.7 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 54.0 | 4 | 5 | 29.0% | 5.0% | 3.33 | 3.06 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 17.4 | 26.1 | 197.0 | 14 | 12 | 26.9% | 6.3% | 3.33 | 3.29 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 61.2 | 87.9 |
| 3 | Corbin Burnes | 53.1 | 3 | 2 | 23.3% | 6.7% | 2.71 | 3.55 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 18.5 | 24.1 | 200.1 | 12 | 9 | 25.1% | 7.1% | 3.33 | 3.41 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 58.6 | 82.9 |
| 4 | Pablo López | 44.0 | 4 | 2 | 31.6% | 4.6% | 3.89 | 3.02 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 12.5 | 19.7 | 185.0 | 13 | 9 | 28.4% | 5.8% | 3.60 | 3.19 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 52.9 | 79.8 |
| 5 | George Kirby | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 25.1% | 2.5% | 3.59 | 2.87 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 14.1 | 23.2 | 188.0 | 13 | 10 | 23.6% | 3.4% | 3.49 | 3.22 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 52.1 | 78.9 |
| 6 | Logan Gilbert | 58.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.09 | 3.53 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 18.2 | 24.5 | 199.1 | 11 | 9 | 24.8% | 6.8% | 3.43 | 3.58 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 54.6 | 75.0 |
| 7 | Tanner Houck | 52.0 | 3 | 4 | 23.9% | 3.8% | 2.25 | 2.15 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 21.0 | 34.6 | 168.0 | 11 | 11 | 23.4% | 6.4% | 3.48 | 3.20 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 46.4 | 70.7 |
| 8 | Joe Ryan | 47.1 | 2 | 2 | 28.0% | 3.2% | 3.24 | 2.98 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 13.9 | 21.8 | 179.1 | 11 | 9 | 27.2% | 5.2% | 3.62 | 3.42 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 48.4 | 70.0 |
| 9 | Framber Valdez | 29.1 | 2 | 1 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 3.70 | 3.68 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 6.9 | 9.6 | 165.1 | 12 | 7 | 21.8% | 7.8% | 3.43 | 3.52 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 46.6 | 64.6 |
| 10 | Zach Eflin | 53.0 | 3 | 4 | 18.6% | 1.8% | 3.91 | 3.83 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 10.6 | 14.5 | 184.0 | 12 | 11 | 21.4% | 3.3% | 3.67 | 3.56 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 45.2 | 64.5 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 49.0 | 5 | 0 | 31.6% | 4.2% | 2.02 | 2.03 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 24.5 | 37.9 | 168.0 | 13 | 6 | 29.4% | 5.5% | 2.84 | 2.69 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 63.8 | 97.7 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 54.0 | 4 | 5 | 29.0% | 5.0% | 3.33 | 3.06 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 17.4 | 26.1 | 197.0 | 14 | 12 | 26.9% | 6.3% | 3.33 | 3.29 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 61.2 | 87.9 |
| 3 | Corbin Burnes | 53.1 | 3 | 2 | 23.3% | 6.7% | 2.71 | 3.55 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 18.5 | 24.1 | 200.1 | 12 | 9 | 25.1% | 7.1% | 3.33 | 3.41 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 58.6 | 82.9 |
| 4 | Pablo López | 44.0 | 4 | 2 | 31.6% | 4.6% | 3.89 | 3.02 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 12.5 | 19.7 | 185.0 | 13 | 9 | 28.4% | 5.8% | 3.60 | 3.19 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 52.9 | 79.8 |
| 5 | George Kirby | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 25.1% | 2.5% | 3.59 | 2.87 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 14.1 | 23.2 | 188.0 | 13 | 10 | 23.6% | 3.4% | 3.49 | 3.22 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 52.1 | 78.9 |
| 6 | Logan Gilbert | 58.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.09 | 3.53 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 18.2 | 24.5 | 199.1 | 11 | 9 | 24.8% | 6.8% | 3.43 | 3.58 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 54.6 | 75.0 |
| 7 | Tanner Houck | 52.0 | 3 | 4 | 23.9% | 3.8% | 2.25 | 2.15 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 21.0 | 34.6 | 168.0 | 11 | 11 | 23.4% | 6.4% | 3.48 | 3.20 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 46.4 | 70.7 |
| 8 | Joe Ryan | 47.1 | 2 | 2 | 28.0% | 3.2% | 3.24 | 2.98 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 13.9 | 21.8 | 179.1 | 11 | 9 | 27.2% | 5.2% | 3.62 | 3.42 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 48.4 | 70.0 |
| 9 | Framber Valdez | 29.1 | 2 | 1 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 3.70 | 3.68 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 6.9 | 9.6 | 165.1 | 12 | 7 | 21.8% | 7.8% | 3.43 | 3.52 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 46.6 | 64.6 |
| 10 | Zach Eflin | 53.0 | 3 | 4 | 18.6% | 1.8% | 3.91 | 3.83 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 10.6 | 14.5 | 184.0 | 12 | 11 | 21.4% | 3.3% | 3.67 | 3.56 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 45.2 | 64.5 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tyler Glasnow | 57.0 | 6 | 1 | 33.6% | 6.9% | 2.53 | 2.50 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 25.8 | 38.5 | 173.0 | 15 | 6 | 31.9% | 7.3% | 3.02 | 2.90 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 65.5 | 96.2 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 53.0 | 4 | 3 | 30.0% | 7.4% | 2.54 | 2.74 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 22.0 | 32.4 | 196.0 | 14 | 10 | 26.4% | 6.7% | 3.21 | 3.12 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 63.3 | 93.5 |
| 3 | Dylan Cease | 55.0 | 5 | 3 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 2.45 | 2.35 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 24.3 | 37.4 | 182.0 | 14 | 9 | 30.4% | 9.3% | 3.16 | 3.11 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 63.5 | 91.6 |
| 4 | Shota Imanaga | 46.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.9% | 4.4% | 0.97 | 2.29 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 28.2 | 39.6 | 171.1 | 13 | 6 | 26.2% | 5.8% | 2.84 | 3.14 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 63.0 | 88.9 |
| 5 | Chris Sale | 49.1 | 6 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.1% | 2.56 | 2.44 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 22.7 | 34.0 | 164.1 | 15 | 6 | 30.5% | 5.7% | 3.12 | 2.98 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 60.4 | 88.1 |
| 6 | Logan Webb | 53.0 | 3 | 4 | 18.6% | 6.2% | 3.39 | 2.89 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 13.7 | 23.3 | 199.0 | 13 | 11 | 20.1% | 5.6% | 3.39 | 3.09 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 54.3 | 85.5 |
| 7 | Ranger Suárez | 54.0 | 7 | 0 | 28.1% | 4.1% | 1.50 | 2.61 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 30.5 | 41.8 | 177.0 | 15 | 6 | 23.2% | 6.7% | 3.05 | 3.42 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 60.1 | 81.3 |
| 8 | Aaron Nola | 58.0 | 5 | 2 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 3.10 | 3.58 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 19.5 | 25.4 | 203.0 | 14 | 10 | 24.3% | 5.7% | 3.64 | 3.50 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 53.7 | 76.3 |
| 9 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 47.1 | 4 | 1 | 27.5% | 5.2% | 3.24 | 3.24 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 15.9 | 22.5 | 178.1 | 14 | 7 | 26.2% | 5.7% | 3.54 | 3.46 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 52.0 | 72.5 |
| 10 | Sonny Gray | 41.0 | 5 | 2 | 31.9% | 4.8% | 3.07 | 2.79 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 16.8 | 24.6 | 171.0 | 13 | 8 | 25.4% | 6.6% | 3.42 | 3.40 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 51.5 | 72.4 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tyler Glasnow | 57.0 | 6 | 1 | 33.6% | 6.9% | 2.53 | 2.50 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 25.8 | 38.5 | 173.0 | 15 | 6 | 31.9% | 7.3% | 3.02 | 2.90 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 65.5 | 96.2 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 53.0 | 4 | 3 | 30.0% | 7.4% | 2.54 | 2.74 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 22.0 | 32.4 | 196.0 | 14 | 10 | 26.4% | 6.7% | 3.21 | 3.12 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 63.3 | 93.5 |
| 3 | Dylan Cease | 55.0 | 5 | 3 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 2.45 | 2.35 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 24.3 | 37.4 | 182.0 | 14 | 9 | 30.4% | 9.3% | 3.16 | 3.11 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 63.5 | 91.6 |
| 4 | Shota Imanaga | 46.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.9% | 4.4% | 0.97 | 2.29 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 28.2 | 39.6 | 171.1 | 13 | 6 | 26.2% | 5.8% | 2.84 | 3.14 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 63.0 | 88.9 |
| 5 | Chris Sale | 49.1 | 6 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.1% | 2.56 | 2.44 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 22.7 | 34.0 | 164.1 | 15 | 6 | 30.5% | 5.7% | 3.12 | 2.98 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 60.4 | 88.1 |
| 6 | Logan Webb | 53.0 | 3 | 4 | 18.6% | 6.2% | 3.39 | 2.89 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 13.7 | 23.3 | 199.0 | 13 | 11 | 20.1% | 5.6% | 3.39 | 3.09 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 54.3 | 85.5 |
| 7 | Ranger Suárez | 54.0 | 7 | 0 | 28.1% | 4.1% | 1.50 | 2.61 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 30.5 | 41.8 | 177.0 | 15 | 6 | 23.2% | 6.7% | 3.05 | 3.42 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 60.1 | 81.3 |
| 8 | Aaron Nola | 58.0 | 5 | 2 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 3.10 | 3.58 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 19.5 | 25.4 | 203.0 | 14 | 10 | 24.3% | 5.7% | 3.64 | 3.50 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 53.7 | 76.3 |
| 9 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 47.1 | 4 | 1 | 27.5% | 5.2% | 3.24 | 3.24 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 15.9 | 22.5 | 178.1 | 14 | 7 | 26.2% | 5.7% | 3.54 | 3.46 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 52.0 | 72.5 |
| 10 | Sonny Gray | 41.0 | 5 | 2 | 31.9% | 4.8% | 3.07 | 2.79 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 16.8 | 24.6 | 171.0 | 13 | 8 | 25.4% | 6.6% | 3.42 | 3.40 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 51.5 | 72.4 |
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