Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 49.0 | 5 | 0 | 31.6% | 4.2% | 2.02 | 2.03 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 24.5 | 37.9 | 171.0 | 13 | 7 | 31.0% | 5.8% | 2.74 | 2.59 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 67.5 | 103.8 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 54.0 | 4 | 5 | 29.0% | 5.0% | 3.33 | 3.06 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 17.4 | 26.1 | 202.0 | 14 | 13 | 26.9% | 6.6% | 3.52 | 3.36 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 58.3 | 83.9 |
| 3 | Pablo López | 44.0 | 4 | 2 | 31.6% | 4.6% | 3.89 | 3.02 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 12.5 | 19.7 | 178.0 | 13 | 10 | 28.7% | 5.9% | 3.59 | 3.17 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 51.8 | 78.1 |
| 4 | George Kirby | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 25.1% | 2.5% | 3.59 | 2.87 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 14.1 | 23.2 | 182.0 | 13 | 11 | 23.3% | 3.5% | 3.56 | 3.30 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 49.1 | 73.5 |
| 5 | Corbin Burnes | 53.1 | 3 | 2 | 23.3% | 6.7% | 2.71 | 3.55 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 18.5 | 24.1 | 192.1 | 12 | 10 | 23.8% | 7.2% | 3.42 | 3.65 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 53.7 | 71.8 |
| 6 | Joe Ryan | 47.1 | 2 | 2 | 28.0% | 3.2% | 3.24 | 2.98 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 13.9 | 21.8 | 179.1 | 11 | 10 | 28.4% | 5.4% | 3.57 | 3.47 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 50.2 | 70.6 |
| 7 | Logan Gilbert | 58.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.09 | 3.53 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 18.2 | 24.5 | 196.1 | 12 | 10 | 25.2% | 6.5% | 3.62 | 3.67 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 51.0 | 69.1 |
| 8 | Tanner Houck | 52.0 | 3 | 4 | 23.9% | 3.8% | 2.25 | 2.15 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 21.0 | 34.6 | 157.0 | 10 | 12 | 22.6% | 6.4% | 3.44 | 3.23 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 43.3 | 65.4 |
| 9 | Cole Ragans | 49.0 | 2 | 3 | 27.3% | 7.7% | 4.22 | 2.64 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 9.2 | 19.3 | 168.0 | 10 | 10 | 26.4% | 8.3% | 3.91 | 3.29 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 39.7 | 62.3 |
| 10 | Yusei Kikuchi | 47.1 | 2 | 3 | 24.3% | 4.8% | 2.67 | 2.58 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 16.2 | 26.3 | 171.1 | 10 | 11 | 25.9% | 7.4% | 3.73 | 3.49 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 43.1 | 62.3 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 49.0 | 5 | 0 | 31.6% | 4.2% | 2.02 | 2.03 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 24.5 | 37.9 | 171.0 | 13 | 7 | 31.0% | 5.8% | 2.74 | 2.59 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 67.5 | 103.8 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 54.0 | 4 | 5 | 29.0% | 5.0% | 3.33 | 3.06 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 17.4 | 26.1 | 202.0 | 14 | 13 | 26.9% | 6.6% | 3.52 | 3.36 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 58.3 | 83.9 |
| 3 | Pablo López | 44.0 | 4 | 2 | 31.6% | 4.6% | 3.89 | 3.02 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 12.5 | 19.7 | 178.0 | 13 | 10 | 28.7% | 5.9% | 3.59 | 3.17 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 51.8 | 78.1 |
| 4 | George Kirby | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 25.1% | 2.5% | 3.59 | 2.87 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 14.1 | 23.2 | 182.0 | 13 | 11 | 23.3% | 3.5% | 3.56 | 3.30 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 49.1 | 73.5 |
| 5 | Corbin Burnes | 53.1 | 3 | 2 | 23.3% | 6.7% | 2.71 | 3.55 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 18.5 | 24.1 | 192.1 | 12 | 10 | 23.8% | 7.2% | 3.42 | 3.65 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 53.7 | 71.8 |
| 6 | Joe Ryan | 47.1 | 2 | 2 | 28.0% | 3.2% | 3.24 | 2.98 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 13.9 | 21.8 | 179.1 | 11 | 10 | 28.4% | 5.4% | 3.57 | 3.47 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 50.2 | 70.6 |
| 7 | Logan Gilbert | 58.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.09 | 3.53 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 18.2 | 24.5 | 196.1 | 12 | 10 | 25.2% | 6.5% | 3.62 | 3.67 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 51.0 | 69.1 |
| 8 | Tanner Houck | 52.0 | 3 | 4 | 23.9% | 3.8% | 2.25 | 2.15 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 21.0 | 34.6 | 157.0 | 10 | 12 | 22.6% | 6.4% | 3.44 | 3.23 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 43.3 | 65.4 |
| 9 | Cole Ragans | 49.0 | 2 | 3 | 27.3% | 7.7% | 4.22 | 2.64 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 9.2 | 19.3 | 168.0 | 10 | 10 | 26.4% | 8.3% | 3.91 | 3.29 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 39.7 | 62.3 |
| 10 | Yusei Kikuchi | 47.1 | 2 | 3 | 24.3% | 4.8% | 2.67 | 2.58 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 16.2 | 26.3 | 171.1 | 10 | 11 | 25.9% | 7.4% | 3.73 | 3.49 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 43.1 | 62.3 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tyler Glasnow | 57.0 | 6 | 1 | 33.6% | 6.9% | 2.53 | 2.50 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 25.8 | 38.5 | 171.0 | 15 | 6 | 32.8% | 7.2% | 3.11 | 2.89 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 63.7 | 94.2 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 53.0 | 4 | 3 | 30.0% | 7.4% | 2.54 | 2.74 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 22.0 | 32.4 | 200.0 | 15 | 10 | 26.7% | 6.5% | 3.24 | 3.18 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 64.8 | 94.1 |
| 3 | Dylan Cease | 55.0 | 5 | 3 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 2.45 | 2.35 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 24.3 | 37.4 | 189.0 | 14 | 10 | 30.5% | 9.2% | 3.24 | 3.14 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 63.7 | 92.3 |
| 4 | Chris Sale | 49.1 | 6 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.1% | 2.56 | 2.44 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 22.7 | 34.0 | 173.1 | 16 | 6 | 30.3% | 6.2% | 3.22 | 2.97 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 62.0 | 91.5 |
| 5 | Logan Webb | 53.0 | 3 | 4 | 18.6% | 6.2% | 3.39 | 2.89 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 13.7 | 23.3 | 199.0 | 13 | 11 | 19.5% | 5.5% | 3.48 | 3.13 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 51.6 | 81.9 |
| 6 | Ranger Suárez | 54.0 | 7 | 0 | 28.1% | 4.1% | 1.50 | 2.61 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 30.5 | 41.8 | 181.0 | 15 | 7 | 22.2% | 6.9% | 3.23 | 3.57 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 56.8 | 75.5 |
| 7 | Freddy Peralta | 44.1 | 3 | 1 | 31.9% | 8.8% | 3.67 | 3.11 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 12.9 | 19.7 | 171.1 | 12 | 8 | 30.1% | 8.1% | 3.47 | 3.38 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 52.7 | 74.0 |
| 8 | Sonny Gray | 41.0 | 5 | 2 | 31.9% | 4.8% | 3.07 | 2.79 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 16.8 | 24.6 | 164.0 | 13 | 9 | 27.3% | 7.0% | 3.46 | 3.29 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 50.4 | 72.6 |
| 9 | Max Fried | 45.0 | 3 | 1 | 20.4% | 9.4% | 3.59 | 3.91 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 11.2 | 14.2 | 177.0 | 14 | 7 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 3.40 | 3.49 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 51.1 | 70.9 |
| 10 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 47.1 | 4 | 1 | 27.5% | 5.2% | 3.24 | 3.24 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 15.9 | 22.5 | 165.1 | 13 | 6 | 25.8% | 5.9% | 3.49 | 3.33 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 49.1 | 70.6 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tyler Glasnow | 57.0 | 6 | 1 | 33.6% | 6.9% | 2.53 | 2.50 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 25.8 | 38.5 | 171.0 | 15 | 6 | 32.8% | 7.2% | 3.11 | 2.89 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 63.7 | 94.2 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 53.0 | 4 | 3 | 30.0% | 7.4% | 2.54 | 2.74 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 22.0 | 32.4 | 200.0 | 15 | 10 | 26.7% | 6.5% | 3.24 | 3.18 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 64.8 | 94.1 |
| 3 | Dylan Cease | 55.0 | 5 | 3 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 2.45 | 2.35 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 24.3 | 37.4 | 189.0 | 14 | 10 | 30.5% | 9.2% | 3.24 | 3.14 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 63.7 | 92.3 |
| 4 | Chris Sale | 49.1 | 6 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.1% | 2.56 | 2.44 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 22.7 | 34.0 | 173.1 | 16 | 6 | 30.3% | 6.2% | 3.22 | 2.97 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 62.0 | 91.5 |
| 5 | Logan Webb | 53.0 | 3 | 4 | 18.6% | 6.2% | 3.39 | 2.89 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 13.7 | 23.3 | 199.0 | 13 | 11 | 19.5% | 5.5% | 3.48 | 3.13 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 51.6 | 81.9 |
| 6 | Ranger Suárez | 54.0 | 7 | 0 | 28.1% | 4.1% | 1.50 | 2.61 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 30.5 | 41.8 | 181.0 | 15 | 7 | 22.2% | 6.9% | 3.23 | 3.57 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 56.8 | 75.5 |
| 7 | Freddy Peralta | 44.1 | 3 | 1 | 31.9% | 8.8% | 3.67 | 3.11 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 12.9 | 19.7 | 171.1 | 12 | 8 | 30.1% | 8.1% | 3.47 | 3.38 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 52.7 | 74.0 |
| 8 | Sonny Gray | 41.0 | 5 | 2 | 31.9% | 4.8% | 3.07 | 2.79 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 16.8 | 24.6 | 164.0 | 13 | 9 | 27.3% | 7.0% | 3.46 | 3.29 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 50.4 | 72.6 |
| 9 | Max Fried | 45.0 | 3 | 1 | 20.4% | 9.4% | 3.59 | 3.91 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 11.2 | 14.2 | 177.0 | 14 | 7 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 3.40 | 3.49 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 51.1 | 70.9 |
| 10 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 47.1 | 4 | 1 | 27.5% | 5.2% | 3.24 | 3.24 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 15.9 | 22.5 | 165.1 | 13 | 6 | 25.8% | 5.9% | 3.49 | 3.33 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 49.1 | 70.6 |
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