Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 55.0 | 6 | 0 | 31.6% | 3.8% | 1.80 | 1.95 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 29.1 | 44.7 | 171.0 | 14 | 7 | 29.3% | 5.7% | 2.89 | 2.81 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 64.4 | 96.5 |
| 2 | Corbin Burnes | 59.1 | 4 | 2 | 25.6% | 6.4% | 2.58 | 3.20 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 22.6 | 31.1 | 203.1 | 13 | 8 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 3.28 | 3.39 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 62.1 | 87.2 |
| 3 | Luis Castillo | 60.0 | 4 | 5 | 26.8% | 6.1% | 3.29 | 3.22 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 18.6 | 27.2 | 202.0 | 14 | 12 | 26.3% | 7.0% | 3.47 | 3.48 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 58.7 | 81.6 |
| 4 | George Kirby | 56.0 | 4 | 4 | 23.5% | 2.2% | 4.01 | 3.27 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 12.4 | 20.1 | 194.0 | 13 | 11 | 23.5% | 3.3% | 3.71 | 3.38 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 48.5 | 72.8 |
| 5 | Pablo López | 55.0 | 4 | 4 | 27.9% | 4.0% | 4.74 | 3.53 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 8.8 | 14.8 | 196.0 | 13 | 10 | 27.3% | 5.7% | 3.86 | 3.47 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 48.9 | 71.5 |
| 6 | Kevin Gausman | 42.0 | 2 | 3 | 22.6% | 5.8% | 4.92 | 3.51 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 4.3 | 9.0 | 181.0 | 11 | 10 | 27.2% | 6.2% | 3.78 | 3.24 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 46.0 | 71.4 |
| 7 | Tanner Houck | 65.0 | 4 | 5 | 24.1% | 4.7% | 1.94 | 2.23 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 28.7 | 45.1 | 177.0 | 11 | 12 | 22.7% | 7.1% | 3.41 | 3.45 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 49.2 | 69.9 |
| 8 | Logan Gilbert | 64.1 | 3 | 2 | 24.8% | 7.6% | 3.22 | 3.57 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 18.3 | 24.9 | 200.1 | 12 | 8 | 24.6% | 6.2% | 3.64 | 3.68 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 50.9 | 69.0 |
| 9 | Seth Lugo | 65.0 | 7 | 1 | 22.7% | 5.1% | 1.80 | 3.21 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 32.3 | 41.7 | 176.0 | 13 | 8 | 21.3% | 6.2% | 3.42 | 3.79 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 49.5 | 63.4 |
| 10 | Framber Valdez | 41.1 | 3 | 2 | 19.9% | 7.0% | 4.37 | 4.17 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 173.1 | 13 | 8 | 23.1% | 7.6% | 3.64 | 3.63 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 46.2 | 62.8 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 55.0 | 6 | 0 | 31.6% | 3.8% | 1.80 | 1.95 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 29.1 | 44.7 | 171.0 | 14 | 7 | 29.3% | 5.7% | 2.89 | 2.81 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 64.4 | 96.5 |
| 2 | Corbin Burnes | 59.1 | 4 | 2 | 25.6% | 6.4% | 2.58 | 3.20 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 22.6 | 31.1 | 203.1 | 13 | 8 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 3.28 | 3.39 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 62.1 | 87.2 |
| 3 | Luis Castillo | 60.0 | 4 | 5 | 26.8% | 6.1% | 3.29 | 3.22 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 18.6 | 27.2 | 202.0 | 14 | 12 | 26.3% | 7.0% | 3.47 | 3.48 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 58.7 | 81.6 |
| 4 | George Kirby | 56.0 | 4 | 4 | 23.5% | 2.2% | 4.01 | 3.27 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 12.4 | 20.1 | 194.0 | 13 | 11 | 23.5% | 3.3% | 3.71 | 3.38 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 48.5 | 72.8 |
| 5 | Pablo López | 55.0 | 4 | 4 | 27.9% | 4.0% | 4.74 | 3.53 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 8.8 | 14.8 | 196.0 | 13 | 10 | 27.3% | 5.7% | 3.86 | 3.47 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 48.9 | 71.5 |
| 6 | Kevin Gausman | 42.0 | 2 | 3 | 22.6% | 5.8% | 4.92 | 3.51 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 4.3 | 9.0 | 181.0 | 11 | 10 | 27.2% | 6.2% | 3.78 | 3.24 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 46.0 | 71.4 |
| 7 | Tanner Houck | 65.0 | 4 | 5 | 24.1% | 4.7% | 1.94 | 2.23 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 28.7 | 45.1 | 177.0 | 11 | 12 | 22.7% | 7.1% | 3.41 | 3.45 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 49.2 | 69.9 |
| 8 | Logan Gilbert | 64.1 | 3 | 2 | 24.8% | 7.6% | 3.22 | 3.57 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 18.3 | 24.9 | 200.1 | 12 | 8 | 24.6% | 6.2% | 3.64 | 3.68 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 50.9 | 69.0 |
| 9 | Seth Lugo | 65.0 | 7 | 1 | 22.7% | 5.1% | 1.80 | 3.21 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 32.3 | 41.7 | 176.0 | 13 | 8 | 21.3% | 6.2% | 3.42 | 3.79 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 49.5 | 63.4 |
| 10 | Framber Valdez | 41.1 | 3 | 2 | 19.9% | 7.0% | 4.37 | 4.17 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 173.1 | 13 | 8 | 23.1% | 7.6% | 3.64 | 3.63 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 46.2 | 62.8 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 60.1 | 5 | 3 | 29.1% | 7.8% | 2.54 | 2.75 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 25.2 | 36.9 | 202.1 | 15 | 9 | 26.7% | 6.3% | 3.20 | 3.17 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 66.0 | 95.8 |
| 2 | Logan Webb | 59.0 | 4 | 4 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 2.96 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 28.3 | 205.0 | 13 | 11 | 20.9% | 5.6% | 3.33 | 3.11 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 57.3 | 89.1 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 62.0 | 6 | 2 | 33.8% | 6.7% | 2.90 | 2.57 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 25.1 | 38.4 | 171.0 | 15 | 7 | 32.3% | 7.4% | 3.26 | 3.02 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 60.4 | 88.5 |
| 4 | Chris Sale | 56.1 | 7 | 1 | 31.7% | 3.6% | 2.24 | 2.22 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 28.1 | 42.3 | 170.1 | 15 | 7 | 29.6% | 5.9% | 3.28 | 3.20 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 58.6 | 83.1 |
| 5 | Shota Imanaga | 53.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.8% | 4.3% | 0.85 | 2.21 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 32.4 | 45.9 | 170.1 | 12 | 6 | 25.4% | 6.0% | 2.96 | 3.33 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 58.8 | 80.9 |
| 6 | Ranger Suárez | 59.0 | 8 | 0 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 1.37 | 2.73 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 34.3 | 45.9 | 171.0 | 15 | 6 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.11 | 3.53 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 57.2 | 75.6 |
| 7 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 54.0 | 5 | 1 | 27.7% | 5.0% | 3.17 | 3.00 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 19.1 | 28.1 | 178.0 | 14 | 7 | 26.7% | 6.1% | 3.54 | 3.33 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 52.4 | 75.5 |
| 8 | Aaron Nola | 65.0 | 6 | 2 | 23.3% | 7.0% | 3.05 | 3.93 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 22.5 | 26.6 | 207.0 | 15 | 9 | 25.1% | 5.9% | 3.61 | 3.67 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 56.4 | 75.5 |
| 9 | Zac Gallen | 50.1 | 5 | 3 | 26.8% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 3.15 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 18.6 | 26.1 | 185.1 | 14 | 9 | 25.5% | 6.7% | 3.50 | 3.46 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 53.9 | 75.2 |
| 10 | Dylan Cease | 59.0 | 5 | 3 | 31.3% | 8.6% | 3.05 | 2.84 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 21.8 | 32.7 | 181.0 | 12 | 9 | 28.8% | 9.7% | 3.58 | 3.50 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 52.0 | 72.0 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 60.1 | 5 | 3 | 29.1% | 7.8% | 2.54 | 2.75 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 25.2 | 36.9 | 202.1 | 15 | 9 | 26.7% | 6.3% | 3.20 | 3.17 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 66.0 | 95.8 |
| 2 | Logan Webb | 59.0 | 4 | 4 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 2.96 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 28.3 | 205.0 | 13 | 11 | 20.9% | 5.6% | 3.33 | 3.11 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 57.3 | 89.1 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 62.0 | 6 | 2 | 33.8% | 6.7% | 2.90 | 2.57 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 25.1 | 38.4 | 171.0 | 15 | 7 | 32.3% | 7.4% | 3.26 | 3.02 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 60.4 | 88.5 |
| 4 | Chris Sale | 56.1 | 7 | 1 | 31.7% | 3.6% | 2.24 | 2.22 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 28.1 | 42.3 | 170.1 | 15 | 7 | 29.6% | 5.9% | 3.28 | 3.20 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 58.6 | 83.1 |
| 5 | Shota Imanaga | 53.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.8% | 4.3% | 0.85 | 2.21 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 32.4 | 45.9 | 170.1 | 12 | 6 | 25.4% | 6.0% | 2.96 | 3.33 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 58.8 | 80.9 |
| 6 | Ranger Suárez | 59.0 | 8 | 0 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 1.37 | 2.73 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 34.3 | 45.9 | 171.0 | 15 | 6 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.11 | 3.53 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 57.2 | 75.6 |
| 7 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 54.0 | 5 | 1 | 27.7% | 5.0% | 3.17 | 3.00 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 19.1 | 28.1 | 178.0 | 14 | 7 | 26.7% | 6.1% | 3.54 | 3.33 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 52.4 | 75.5 |
| 8 | Aaron Nola | 65.0 | 6 | 2 | 23.3% | 7.0% | 3.05 | 3.93 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 22.5 | 26.6 | 207.0 | 15 | 9 | 25.1% | 5.9% | 3.61 | 3.67 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 56.4 | 75.5 |
| 9 | Zac Gallen | 50.1 | 5 | 3 | 26.8% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 3.15 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 18.6 | 26.1 | 185.1 | 14 | 9 | 25.5% | 6.7% | 3.50 | 3.46 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 53.9 | 75.2 |
| 10 | Dylan Cease | 59.0 | 5 | 3 | 31.3% | 8.6% | 3.05 | 2.84 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 21.8 | 32.7 | 181.0 | 12 | 9 | 28.8% | 9.7% | 3.58 | 3.50 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 52.0 | 72.0 |
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