Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 55.0 | 6 | 0 | 31.6% | 3.8% | 1.80 | 1.95 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 29.1 | 44.7 | 162.0 | 13 | 5 | 28.5% | 5.0% | 2.83 | 2.60 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 61.3 | 95.5 |
| 2 | Corbin Burnes | 59.1 | 4 | 2 | 25.6% | 6.4% | 2.58 | 3.20 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 22.6 | 31.1 | 198.1 | 12 | 7 | 25.8% | 7.0% | 3.27 | 3.23 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 59.8 | 87.8 |
| 3 | Luis Castillo | 60.0 | 4 | 5 | 26.8% | 6.1% | 3.29 | 3.22 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 18.6 | 27.2 | 195.0 | 14 | 11 | 26.3% | 6.6% | 3.32 | 3.27 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 60.5 | 87.2 |
| 4 | Tanner Houck | 65.0 | 4 | 5 | 24.1% | 4.7% | 1.94 | 2.23 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 28.7 | 45.1 | 176.0 | 12 | 12 | 24.1% | 6.6% | 3.27 | 3.10 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 53.5 | 80.8 |
| 5 | George Kirby | 56.0 | 4 | 4 | 23.5% | 2.2% | 4.01 | 3.27 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 12.4 | 20.1 | 187.0 | 14 | 11 | 22.8% | 3.1% | 3.66 | 3.33 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 48.9 | 73.2 |
| 6 | Logan Gilbert | 64.1 | 3 | 2 | 24.8% | 7.6% | 3.22 | 3.57 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 18.3 | 24.9 | 199.1 | 11 | 8 | 23.3% | 6.9% | 3.48 | 3.66 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 52.5 | 71.2 |
| 7 | Seth Lugo | 65.0 | 7 | 1 | 22.7% | 5.1% | 1.80 | 3.21 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 32.3 | 41.7 | 179.0 | 13 | 8 | 21.0% | 6.0% | 3.27 | 3.75 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 53.1 | 68.0 |
| 8 | Jon Gray | 52.0 | 2 | 1 | 24.1% | 6.5% | 2.08 | 2.46 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 21.2 | 33.0 | 161.0 | 8 | 6 | 23.8% | 7.1% | 3.41 | 3.27 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 43.6 | 65.6 |
| 9 | Cole Ragans | 56.0 | 3 | 3 | 27.6% | 7.8% | 3.70 | 2.58 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 14.4 | 26.4 | 164.0 | 10 | 9 | 25.6% | 8.5% | 3.73 | 3.24 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 41.8 | 64.7 |
| 10 | Kutter Crawford | 58.0 | 2 | 2 | 23.8% | 7.5% | 2.17 | 2.89 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 22.7 | 33.1 | 172.0 | 8 | 8 | 23.4% | 7.5% | 3.51 | 3.44 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 43.9 | 64.1 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 55.0 | 6 | 0 | 31.6% | 3.8% | 1.80 | 1.95 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 29.1 | 44.7 | 162.0 | 13 | 5 | 28.5% | 5.0% | 2.83 | 2.60 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 61.3 | 95.5 |
| 2 | Corbin Burnes | 59.1 | 4 | 2 | 25.6% | 6.4% | 2.58 | 3.20 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 22.6 | 31.1 | 198.1 | 12 | 7 | 25.8% | 7.0% | 3.27 | 3.23 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 59.8 | 87.8 |
| 3 | Luis Castillo | 60.0 | 4 | 5 | 26.8% | 6.1% | 3.29 | 3.22 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 18.6 | 27.2 | 195.0 | 14 | 11 | 26.3% | 6.6% | 3.32 | 3.27 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 60.5 | 87.2 |
| 4 | Tanner Houck | 65.0 | 4 | 5 | 24.1% | 4.7% | 1.94 | 2.23 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 28.7 | 45.1 | 176.0 | 12 | 12 | 24.1% | 6.6% | 3.27 | 3.10 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 53.5 | 80.8 |
| 5 | George Kirby | 56.0 | 4 | 4 | 23.5% | 2.2% | 4.01 | 3.27 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 12.4 | 20.1 | 187.0 | 14 | 11 | 22.8% | 3.1% | 3.66 | 3.33 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 48.9 | 73.2 |
| 6 | Logan Gilbert | 64.1 | 3 | 2 | 24.8% | 7.6% | 3.22 | 3.57 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 18.3 | 24.9 | 199.1 | 11 | 8 | 23.3% | 6.9% | 3.48 | 3.66 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 52.5 | 71.2 |
| 7 | Seth Lugo | 65.0 | 7 | 1 | 22.7% | 5.1% | 1.80 | 3.21 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 32.3 | 41.7 | 179.0 | 13 | 8 | 21.0% | 6.0% | 3.27 | 3.75 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 53.1 | 68.0 |
| 8 | Jon Gray | 52.0 | 2 | 1 | 24.1% | 6.5% | 2.08 | 2.46 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 21.2 | 33.0 | 161.0 | 8 | 6 | 23.8% | 7.1% | 3.41 | 3.27 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 43.6 | 65.6 |
| 9 | Cole Ragans | 56.0 | 3 | 3 | 27.6% | 7.8% | 3.70 | 2.58 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 14.4 | 26.4 | 164.0 | 10 | 9 | 25.6% | 8.5% | 3.73 | 3.24 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 41.8 | 64.7 |
| 10 | Kutter Crawford | 58.0 | 2 | 2 | 23.8% | 7.5% | 2.17 | 2.89 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 22.7 | 33.1 | 172.0 | 8 | 8 | 23.4% | 7.5% | 3.51 | 3.44 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 43.9 | 64.1 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Shota Imanaga | 53.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.8% | 4.3% | 0.85 | 2.21 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 32.4 | 45.9 | 166.1 | 12 | 4 | 26.5% | 5.7% | 2.60 | 2.86 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 65.1 | 95.5 |
| 2 | Chris Sale | 56.1 | 7 | 1 | 31.7% | 3.6% | 2.24 | 2.22 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 28.1 | 42.3 | 169.1 | 16 | 5 | 30.7% | 5.4% | 3.09 | 2.93 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 63.7 | 93.3 |
| 3 | Zack Wheeler | 60.1 | 5 | 3 | 29.1% | 7.8% | 2.54 | 2.75 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 25.2 | 36.9 | 194.1 | 14 | 9 | 26.4% | 7.2% | 3.24 | 3.07 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 62.3 | 93.1 |
| 4 | Logan Webb | 59.0 | 4 | 4 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 2.96 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 28.3 | 199.0 | 14 | 10 | 19.9% | 5.9% | 3.25 | 3.11 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 58.1 | 88.9 |
| 5 | Tyler Glasnow | 62.0 | 6 | 2 | 33.8% | 6.7% | 2.90 | 2.57 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 25.1 | 38.4 | 167.0 | 16 | 6 | 32.0% | 7.2% | 3.18 | 3.07 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 62.0 | 88.5 |
| 6 | Dylan Cease | 59.0 | 5 | 3 | 31.3% | 8.6% | 3.05 | 2.84 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 21.8 | 32.7 | 178.0 | 13 | 8 | 30.0% | 9.4% | 3.39 | 3.24 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 57.0 | 81.9 |
| 7 | Ranger Suárez | 59.0 | 8 | 0 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 1.37 | 2.73 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 34.3 | 45.9 | 173.0 | 15 | 5 | 22.8% | 6.5% | 2.97 | 3.42 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 60.5 | 81.2 |
| 8 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 54.0 | 5 | 1 | 27.7% | 5.0% | 3.17 | 3.00 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 19.1 | 28.1 | 182.0 | 15 | 6 | 26.2% | 5.2% | 3.46 | 3.25 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 55.0 | 80.2 |
| 9 | Aaron Nola | 65.0 | 6 | 2 | 23.3% | 7.0% | 3.05 | 3.93 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 22.5 | 26.6 | 202.0 | 15 | 9 | 24.5% | 5.8% | 3.74 | 3.53 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 52.2 | 73.9 |
| 10 | Zac Gallen | 50.1 | 5 | 3 | 26.8% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 3.15 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 18.6 | 26.1 | 178.1 | 15 | 10 | 24.3% | 7.0% | 3.38 | 3.56 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 55.0 | 73.6 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Shota Imanaga | 53.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.8% | 4.3% | 0.85 | 2.21 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 32.4 | 45.9 | 166.1 | 12 | 4 | 26.5% | 5.7% | 2.60 | 2.86 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 65.1 | 95.5 |
| 2 | Chris Sale | 56.1 | 7 | 1 | 31.7% | 3.6% | 2.24 | 2.22 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 28.1 | 42.3 | 169.1 | 16 | 5 | 30.7% | 5.4% | 3.09 | 2.93 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 63.7 | 93.3 |
| 3 | Zack Wheeler | 60.1 | 5 | 3 | 29.1% | 7.8% | 2.54 | 2.75 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 25.2 | 36.9 | 194.1 | 14 | 9 | 26.4% | 7.2% | 3.24 | 3.07 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 62.3 | 93.1 |
| 4 | Logan Webb | 59.0 | 4 | 4 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 2.96 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 28.3 | 199.0 | 14 | 10 | 19.9% | 5.9% | 3.25 | 3.11 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 58.1 | 88.9 |
| 5 | Tyler Glasnow | 62.0 | 6 | 2 | 33.8% | 6.7% | 2.90 | 2.57 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 25.1 | 38.4 | 167.0 | 16 | 6 | 32.0% | 7.2% | 3.18 | 3.07 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 62.0 | 88.5 |
| 6 | Dylan Cease | 59.0 | 5 | 3 | 31.3% | 8.6% | 3.05 | 2.84 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 21.8 | 32.7 | 178.0 | 13 | 8 | 30.0% | 9.4% | 3.39 | 3.24 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 57.0 | 81.9 |
| 7 | Ranger Suárez | 59.0 | 8 | 0 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 1.37 | 2.73 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 34.3 | 45.9 | 173.0 | 15 | 5 | 22.8% | 6.5% | 2.97 | 3.42 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 60.5 | 81.2 |
| 8 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 54.0 | 5 | 1 | 27.7% | 5.0% | 3.17 | 3.00 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 19.1 | 28.1 | 182.0 | 15 | 6 | 26.2% | 5.2% | 3.46 | 3.25 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 55.0 | 80.2 |
| 9 | Aaron Nola | 65.0 | 6 | 2 | 23.3% | 7.0% | 3.05 | 3.93 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 22.5 | 26.6 | 202.0 | 15 | 9 | 24.5% | 5.8% | 3.74 | 3.53 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 52.2 | 73.9 |
| 10 | Zac Gallen | 50.1 | 5 | 3 | 26.8% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 3.15 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 18.6 | 26.1 | 178.1 | 15 | 10 | 24.3% | 7.0% | 3.38 | 3.56 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 55.0 | 73.6 |
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