Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 55.0 | 6 | 0 | 31.6% | 3.8% | 1.80 | 1.95 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 29.1 | 44.7 | 168.0 | 14 | 6 | 31.3% | 5.3% | 2.57 | 2.50 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 70.6 | 108.0 |
| 2 | Corbin Burnes | 59.1 | 4 | 2 | 25.6% | 6.4% | 2.58 | 3.20 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 22.6 | 31.1 | 197.1 | 13 | 10 | 24.7% | 7.0% | 3.33 | 3.47 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 58.4 | 81.0 |
| 3 | Tanner Houck | 65.0 | 4 | 5 | 24.1% | 4.7% | 1.94 | 2.23 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 28.7 | 45.1 | 184.0 | 12 | 12 | 22.6% | 6.6% | 3.28 | 3.21 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 54.2 | 80.6 |
| 4 | Luis Castillo | 60.0 | 4 | 5 | 26.8% | 6.1% | 3.29 | 3.22 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 18.6 | 27.2 | 199.0 | 13 | 12 | 26.0% | 6.8% | 3.48 | 3.43 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 56.8 | 80.5 |
| 5 | Logan Gilbert | 64.1 | 3 | 2 | 24.8% | 7.6% | 3.22 | 3.57 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 18.3 | 24.9 | 197.1 | 12 | 10 | 24.7% | 6.3% | 3.65 | 3.64 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 50.3 | 69.2 |
| 6 | Pablo López | 55.0 | 4 | 4 | 27.9% | 4.0% | 4.74 | 3.53 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 8.8 | 14.8 | 185.0 | 13 | 11 | 27.0% | 5.5% | 3.89 | 3.41 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 46.0 | 68.4 |
| 7 | Joe Ryan | 53.0 | 2 | 3 | 27.4% | 3.3% | 3.57 | 3.13 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 13.3 | 21.4 | 179.0 | 10 | 10 | 27.9% | 5.2% | 3.67 | 3.52 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 46.7 | 66.2 |
| 8 | George Kirby | 56.0 | 4 | 4 | 23.5% | 2.2% | 4.01 | 3.27 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 12.4 | 20.1 | 182.0 | 12 | 11 | 22.6% | 3.4% | 3.76 | 3.41 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 43.7 | 65.7 |
| 9 | Cole Ragans | 56.0 | 3 | 3 | 27.6% | 7.8% | 3.70 | 2.58 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 14.4 | 26.4 | 174.0 | 10 | 10 | 26.1% | 8.2% | 3.83 | 3.28 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 42.0 | 65.5 |
| 10 | Yusei Kikuchi | 52.0 | 2 | 3 | 26.3% | 4.8% | 2.60 | 2.61 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 18.5 | 29.4 | 170.0 | 9 | 10 | 26.7% | 7.2% | 3.60 | 3.44 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 44.8 | 64.9 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 55.0 | 6 | 0 | 31.6% | 3.8% | 1.80 | 1.95 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 29.1 | 44.7 | 168.0 | 14 | 6 | 31.3% | 5.3% | 2.57 | 2.50 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 70.6 | 108.0 |
| 2 | Corbin Burnes | 59.1 | 4 | 2 | 25.6% | 6.4% | 2.58 | 3.20 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 22.6 | 31.1 | 197.1 | 13 | 10 | 24.7% | 7.0% | 3.33 | 3.47 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 58.4 | 81.0 |
| 3 | Tanner Houck | 65.0 | 4 | 5 | 24.1% | 4.7% | 1.94 | 2.23 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 28.7 | 45.1 | 184.0 | 12 | 12 | 22.6% | 6.6% | 3.28 | 3.21 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 54.2 | 80.6 |
| 4 | Luis Castillo | 60.0 | 4 | 5 | 26.8% | 6.1% | 3.29 | 3.22 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 18.6 | 27.2 | 199.0 | 13 | 12 | 26.0% | 6.8% | 3.48 | 3.43 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 56.8 | 80.5 |
| 5 | Logan Gilbert | 64.1 | 3 | 2 | 24.8% | 7.6% | 3.22 | 3.57 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 18.3 | 24.9 | 197.1 | 12 | 10 | 24.7% | 6.3% | 3.65 | 3.64 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 50.3 | 69.2 |
| 6 | Pablo López | 55.0 | 4 | 4 | 27.9% | 4.0% | 4.74 | 3.53 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 8.8 | 14.8 | 185.0 | 13 | 11 | 27.0% | 5.5% | 3.89 | 3.41 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 46.0 | 68.4 |
| 7 | Joe Ryan | 53.0 | 2 | 3 | 27.4% | 3.3% | 3.57 | 3.13 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 13.3 | 21.4 | 179.0 | 10 | 10 | 27.9% | 5.2% | 3.67 | 3.52 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 46.7 | 66.2 |
| 8 | George Kirby | 56.0 | 4 | 4 | 23.5% | 2.2% | 4.01 | 3.27 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 12.4 | 20.1 | 182.0 | 12 | 11 | 22.6% | 3.4% | 3.76 | 3.41 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 43.7 | 65.7 |
| 9 | Cole Ragans | 56.0 | 3 | 3 | 27.6% | 7.8% | 3.70 | 2.58 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 14.4 | 26.4 | 174.0 | 10 | 10 | 26.1% | 8.2% | 3.83 | 3.28 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 42.0 | 65.5 |
| 10 | Yusei Kikuchi | 52.0 | 2 | 3 | 26.3% | 4.8% | 2.60 | 2.61 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 18.5 | 29.4 | 170.0 | 9 | 10 | 26.7% | 7.2% | 3.60 | 3.44 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 44.8 | 64.9 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Chris Sale | 56.1 | 7 | 1 | 31.7% | 3.6% | 2.24 | 2.22 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 28.1 | 42.3 | 173.1 | 16 | 6 | 30.7% | 5.9% | 3.01 | 2.83 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 66.1 | 98.3 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 60.1 | 5 | 3 | 29.1% | 7.8% | 2.54 | 2.75 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 25.2 | 36.9 | 201.1 | 15 | 9 | 26.6% | 6.7% | 3.18 | 3.15 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 66.4 | 96.6 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 62.0 | 6 | 2 | 33.8% | 6.7% | 2.90 | 2.57 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 25.1 | 38.4 | 170.0 | 15 | 6 | 32.6% | 7.1% | 3.28 | 2.98 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 60.1 | 88.8 |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 59.0 | 5 | 3 | 31.3% | 8.6% | 3.05 | 2.84 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 21.8 | 32.7 | 192.0 | 14 | 10 | 30.3% | 9.1% | 3.38 | 3.25 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 61.7 | 88.3 |
| 5 | Logan Webb | 59.0 | 4 | 4 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 2.96 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 28.3 | 198.0 | 14 | 11 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 3.36 | 3.16 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 54.8 | 84.3 |
| 6 | Ranger Suárez | 59.0 | 8 | 0 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 1.37 | 2.73 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 34.3 | 45.9 | 178.0 | 16 | 7 | 22.1% | 6.8% | 3.08 | 3.55 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 59.9 | 78.7 |
| 7 | Sonny Gray | 47.0 | 6 | 2 | 31.2% | 5.3% | 2.87 | 3.00 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 20.4 | 28.2 | 164.0 | 14 | 9 | 27.6% | 6.9% | 3.35 | 3.27 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 53.5 | 75.9 |
| 8 | Shota Imanaga | 53.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.8% | 4.3% | 0.85 | 2.21 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 32.4 | 45.9 | 167.1 | 12 | 7 | 25.8% | 5.7% | 3.07 | 3.45 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 56.2 | 75.7 |
| 9 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 54.0 | 5 | 1 | 27.7% | 5.0% | 3.17 | 3.00 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 19.1 | 28.1 | 166.0 | 14 | 6 | 26.0% | 5.7% | 3.47 | 3.22 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 50.7 | 74.3 |
| 10 | Zac Gallen | 50.1 | 5 | 3 | 26.8% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 3.15 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 18.6 | 26.1 | 180.1 | 14 | 10 | 24.9% | 6.3% | 3.60 | 3.42 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 50.6 | 72.2 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Chris Sale | 56.1 | 7 | 1 | 31.7% | 3.6% | 2.24 | 2.22 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 28.1 | 42.3 | 173.1 | 16 | 6 | 30.7% | 5.9% | 3.01 | 2.83 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 66.1 | 98.3 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 60.1 | 5 | 3 | 29.1% | 7.8% | 2.54 | 2.75 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 25.2 | 36.9 | 201.1 | 15 | 9 | 26.6% | 6.7% | 3.18 | 3.15 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 66.4 | 96.6 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 62.0 | 6 | 2 | 33.8% | 6.7% | 2.90 | 2.57 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 25.1 | 38.4 | 170.0 | 15 | 6 | 32.6% | 7.1% | 3.28 | 2.98 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 60.1 | 88.8 |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 59.0 | 5 | 3 | 31.3% | 8.6% | 3.05 | 2.84 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 21.8 | 32.7 | 192.0 | 14 | 10 | 30.3% | 9.1% | 3.38 | 3.25 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 61.7 | 88.3 |
| 5 | Logan Webb | 59.0 | 4 | 4 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 2.96 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 28.3 | 198.0 | 14 | 11 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 3.36 | 3.16 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 54.8 | 84.3 |
| 6 | Ranger Suárez | 59.0 | 8 | 0 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 1.37 | 2.73 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 34.3 | 45.9 | 178.0 | 16 | 7 | 22.1% | 6.8% | 3.08 | 3.55 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 59.9 | 78.7 |
| 7 | Sonny Gray | 47.0 | 6 | 2 | 31.2% | 5.3% | 2.87 | 3.00 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 20.4 | 28.2 | 164.0 | 14 | 9 | 27.6% | 6.9% | 3.35 | 3.27 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 53.5 | 75.9 |
| 8 | Shota Imanaga | 53.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.8% | 4.3% | 0.85 | 2.21 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 32.4 | 45.9 | 167.1 | 12 | 7 | 25.8% | 5.7% | 3.07 | 3.45 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 56.2 | 75.7 |
| 9 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 54.0 | 5 | 1 | 27.7% | 5.0% | 3.17 | 3.00 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 19.1 | 28.1 | 166.0 | 14 | 6 | 26.0% | 5.7% | 3.47 | 3.22 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 50.7 | 74.3 |
| 10 | Zac Gallen | 50.1 | 5 | 3 | 26.8% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 3.15 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 18.6 | 26.1 | 180.1 | 14 | 10 | 24.9% | 6.3% | 3.60 | 3.42 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 50.6 | 72.2 |
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