Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 55.0 | 6 | 0 | 31.6% | 3.8% | 1.80 | 1.95 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 29.1 | 44.7 | 171.0 | 14 | 6 | 29.6% | 5.2% | 2.68 | 2.56 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 68.5 | 105.3 |
| 2 | Corbin Burnes | 59.1 | 4 | 2 | 25.6% | 6.4% | 2.58 | 3.20 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 22.6 | 31.1 | 201.1 | 13 | 8 | 25.9% | 7.1% | 3.22 | 3.28 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 62.9 | 90.1 |
| 3 | Luis Castillo | 60.0 | 4 | 5 | 26.8% | 6.1% | 3.29 | 3.22 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 18.6 | 27.2 | 198.0 | 13 | 12 | 26.0% | 6.8% | 3.36 | 3.35 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 59.2 | 84.6 |
| 4 | Pablo López | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 28.7% | 4.0% | 3.95 | 3.19 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 12.8 | 20.1 | 186.0 | 12 | 10 | 27.4% | 5.5% | 3.63 | 3.24 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 50.8 | 76.8 |
| 5 | Tanner Houck | 58.0 | 3 | 5 | 24.3% | 4.7% | 2.17 | 2.24 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 23.7 | 38.3 | 169.0 | 10 | 12 | 23.6% | 6.6% | 3.36 | 3.16 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 48.2 | 73.3 |
| 6 | George Kirby | 56.0 | 4 | 4 | 23.5% | 2.2% | 4.01 | 3.28 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 12.4 | 20.1 | 190.0 | 13 | 11 | 22.9% | 3.2% | 3.65 | 3.37 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 48.8 | 72.7 |
| 7 | Logan Gilbert | 58.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.09 | 3.55 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 24.4 | 194.1 | 11 | 9 | 24.9% | 6.9% | 3.43 | 3.64 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 53.7 | 72.3 |
| 8 | Framber Valdez | 36.1 | 3 | 1 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 2.98 | 3.32 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 12.2 | 17.0 | 166.1 | 13 | 7 | 22.2% | 7.8% | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 51.4 | 71.6 |
| 9 | Seth Lugo | 65.0 | 7 | 1 | 22.7% | 5.1% | 1.80 | 3.21 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 32.3 | 41.7 | 183.0 | 13 | 8 | 21.1% | 6.2% | 3.34 | 3.72 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 52.6 | 68.5 |
| 10 | Cole Ragans | 56.0 | 3 | 3 | 27.6% | 7.8% | 3.70 | 2.58 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 14.4 | 26.3 | 172.0 | 10 | 10 | 25.7% | 8.7% | 3.72 | 3.29 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 43.6 | 66.7 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 55.0 | 6 | 0 | 31.6% | 3.8% | 1.80 | 1.95 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 29.1 | 44.7 | 171.0 | 14 | 6 | 29.6% | 5.2% | 2.68 | 2.56 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 68.5 | 105.3 |
| 2 | Corbin Burnes | 59.1 | 4 | 2 | 25.6% | 6.4% | 2.58 | 3.20 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 22.6 | 31.1 | 201.1 | 13 | 8 | 25.9% | 7.1% | 3.22 | 3.28 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 62.9 | 90.1 |
| 3 | Luis Castillo | 60.0 | 4 | 5 | 26.8% | 6.1% | 3.29 | 3.22 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 18.6 | 27.2 | 198.0 | 13 | 12 | 26.0% | 6.8% | 3.36 | 3.35 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 59.2 | 84.6 |
| 4 | Pablo López | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 28.7% | 4.0% | 3.95 | 3.19 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 12.8 | 20.1 | 186.0 | 12 | 10 | 27.4% | 5.5% | 3.63 | 3.24 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 50.8 | 76.8 |
| 5 | Tanner Houck | 58.0 | 3 | 5 | 24.3% | 4.7% | 2.17 | 2.24 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 23.7 | 38.3 | 169.0 | 10 | 12 | 23.6% | 6.6% | 3.36 | 3.16 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 48.2 | 73.3 |
| 6 | George Kirby | 56.0 | 4 | 4 | 23.5% | 2.2% | 4.01 | 3.28 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 12.4 | 20.1 | 190.0 | 13 | 11 | 22.9% | 3.2% | 3.65 | 3.37 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 48.8 | 72.7 |
| 7 | Logan Gilbert | 58.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.09 | 3.55 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 24.4 | 194.1 | 11 | 9 | 24.9% | 6.9% | 3.43 | 3.64 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 53.7 | 72.3 |
| 8 | Framber Valdez | 36.1 | 3 | 1 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 2.98 | 3.32 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 12.2 | 17.0 | 166.1 | 13 | 7 | 22.2% | 7.8% | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 51.4 | 71.6 |
| 9 | Seth Lugo | 65.0 | 7 | 1 | 22.7% | 5.1% | 1.80 | 3.21 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 32.3 | 41.7 | 183.0 | 13 | 8 | 21.1% | 6.2% | 3.34 | 3.72 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 52.6 | 68.5 |
| 10 | Cole Ragans | 56.0 | 3 | 3 | 27.6% | 7.8% | 3.70 | 2.58 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 14.4 | 26.3 | 172.0 | 10 | 10 | 25.7% | 8.7% | 3.72 | 3.29 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 43.6 | 66.7 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 60.1 | 5 | 3 | 29.1% | 7.8% | 2.54 | 2.75 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 25.2 | 36.9 | 197.1 | 14 | 9 | 26.3% | 6.9% | 3.19 | 3.10 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 63.9 | 94.5 |
| 2 | Tyler Glasnow | 62.0 | 6 | 2 | 33.8% | 6.7% | 2.90 | 2.57 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 25.1 | 38.4 | 173.0 | 15 | 6 | 32.1% | 7.1% | 3.12 | 2.96 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 63.7 | 93.4 |
| 3 | Shota Imanaga | 53.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.8% | 4.3% | 0.85 | 2.21 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 32.4 | 45.9 | 173.1 | 12 | 5 | 26.2% | 5.7% | 2.70 | 3.05 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 65.1 | 92.9 |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 55.0 | 5 | 3 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 2.45 | 2.37 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 24.3 | 37.3 | 179.0 | 14 | 9 | 30.3% | 9.2% | 3.12 | 3.08 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 63.5 | 91.7 |
| 5 | Chris Sale | 49.1 | 6 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.1% | 2.56 | 2.46 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 22.7 | 33.8 | 161.1 | 15 | 6 | 30.4% | 5.7% | 3.13 | 2.95 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 59.5 | 87.3 |
| 6 | Logan Webb | 59.0 | 4 | 4 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 2.97 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 28.3 | 200.0 | 13 | 11 | 20.0% | 6.0% | 3.28 | 3.17 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 56.8 | 86.4 |
| 7 | Ranger Suárez | 59.0 | 8 | 0 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 1.37 | 2.73 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 34.3 | 45.9 | 176.0 | 15 | 6 | 22.6% | 6.8% | 2.97 | 3.45 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 61.2 | 81.8 |
| 8 | Zac Gallen | 50.1 | 5 | 3 | 26.8% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 3.15 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 18.6 | 26.1 | 181.1 | 14 | 10 | 24.8% | 6.8% | 3.43 | 3.48 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 54.2 | 74.8 |
| 9 | Aaron Nola | 65.0 | 6 | 2 | 23.3% | 7.0% | 3.05 | 3.94 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 22.5 | 26.6 | 204.0 | 15 | 9 | 24.1% | 6.0% | 3.62 | 3.63 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 55.1 | 74.8 |
| 10 | Sonny Gray | 41.0 | 5 | 2 | 31.9% | 4.8% | 3.07 | 2.81 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 16.8 | 24.6 | 167.0 | 13 | 8 | 25.3% | 6.7% | 3.39 | 3.39 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 51.0 | 71.6 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 60.1 | 5 | 3 | 29.1% | 7.8% | 2.54 | 2.75 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 25.2 | 36.9 | 197.1 | 14 | 9 | 26.3% | 6.9% | 3.19 | 3.10 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 63.9 | 94.5 |
| 2 | Tyler Glasnow | 62.0 | 6 | 2 | 33.8% | 6.7% | 2.90 | 2.57 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 25.1 | 38.4 | 173.0 | 15 | 6 | 32.1% | 7.1% | 3.12 | 2.96 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 63.7 | 93.4 |
| 3 | Shota Imanaga | 53.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.8% | 4.3% | 0.85 | 2.21 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 32.4 | 45.9 | 173.1 | 12 | 5 | 26.2% | 5.7% | 2.70 | 3.05 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 65.1 | 92.9 |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 55.0 | 5 | 3 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 2.45 | 2.37 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 24.3 | 37.3 | 179.0 | 14 | 9 | 30.3% | 9.2% | 3.12 | 3.08 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 63.5 | 91.7 |
| 5 | Chris Sale | 49.1 | 6 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.1% | 2.56 | 2.46 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 22.7 | 33.8 | 161.1 | 15 | 6 | 30.4% | 5.7% | 3.13 | 2.95 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 59.5 | 87.3 |
| 6 | Logan Webb | 59.0 | 4 | 4 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 2.97 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 28.3 | 200.0 | 13 | 11 | 20.0% | 6.0% | 3.28 | 3.17 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 56.8 | 86.4 |
| 7 | Ranger Suárez | 59.0 | 8 | 0 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 1.37 | 2.73 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 34.3 | 45.9 | 176.0 | 15 | 6 | 22.6% | 6.8% | 2.97 | 3.45 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 61.2 | 81.8 |
| 8 | Zac Gallen | 50.1 | 5 | 3 | 26.8% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 3.15 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 18.6 | 26.1 | 181.1 | 14 | 10 | 24.8% | 6.8% | 3.43 | 3.48 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 54.2 | 74.8 |
| 9 | Aaron Nola | 65.0 | 6 | 2 | 23.3% | 7.0% | 3.05 | 3.94 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 22.5 | 26.6 | 204.0 | 15 | 9 | 24.1% | 6.0% | 3.62 | 3.63 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 55.1 | 74.8 |
| 10 | Sonny Gray | 41.0 | 5 | 2 | 31.9% | 4.8% | 3.07 | 2.81 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 16.8 | 24.6 | 167.0 | 13 | 8 | 25.3% | 6.7% | 3.39 | 3.39 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 51.0 | 71.6 |
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