Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 42.1 | 4 | 0 | 32.7% | 3.7% | 1.92 | 2.05 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 21.4 | 32.9 | 168.1 | 12 | 6 | 29.6% | 5.4% | 2.89 | 2.74 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 62.0 | 94.8 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 48.0 | 3 | 5 | 28.4% | 5.6% | 3.56 | 2.85 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 13.6 | 22.5 | 200.0 | 14 | 13 | 26.5% | 6.7% | 3.42 | 3.29 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 59.8 | 86.7 |
| 3 | Logan Gilbert | 48.0 | 3 | 0 | 28.2% | 7.3% | 1.69 | 3.23 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 23.0 | 29.8 | 199.0 | 12 | 7 | 24.8% | 6.5% | 3.12 | 3.56 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 62.4 | 83.3 |
| 4 | George Kirby | 38.0 | 3 | 2 | 26.3% | 2.6% | 3.78 | 2.07 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 10.1 | 20.4 | 186.0 | 13 | 10 | 23.8% | 3.6% | 3.48 | 3.06 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 52.1 | 82.0 |
| 5 | Corbin Burnes | 41.0 | 3 | 1 | 25.8% | 5.7% | 2.63 | 3.70 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 15.6 | 19.3 | 195.0 | 12 | 8 | 26.0% | 6.9% | 3.32 | 3.43 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 58.2 | 81.6 |
| 6 | Pablo López | 37.1 | 3 | 2 | 30.2% | 5.4% | 4.35 | 3.47 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 8.1 | 12.4 | 186.1 | 12 | 9 | 27.9% | 6.2% | 3.67 | 3.33 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 50.3 | 74.6 |
| 7 | Kevin Gausman | 33.0 | 2 | 3 | 21.5% | 5.6% | 3.81 | 3.66 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 179.0 | 12 | 10 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 3.57 | 3.45 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 49.4 | 70.3 |
| 8 | Cole Ragans | 42.1 | 2 | 2 | 29.8% | 8.3% | 3.41 | 2.34 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 12.5 | 22.6 | 169.1 | 10 | 9 | 26.5% | 9.0% | 3.62 | 3.28 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 45.7 | 68.7 |
| 9 | Tanner Houck | 45.0 | 3 | 3 | 25.4% | 3.9% | 2.00 | 2.06 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 20.1 | 32.4 | 160.0 | 11 | 10 | 24.0% | 6.6% | 3.49 | 3.22 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 45.1 | 68.0 |
| 10 | Joe Ryan | 40.1 | 1 | 2 | 28.4% | 3.7% | 3.58 | 2.99 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 9.7 | 16.4 | 178.1 | 10 | 10 | 27.4% | 5.5% | 3.74 | 3.38 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 45.1 | 67.2 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 42.1 | 4 | 0 | 32.7% | 3.7% | 1.92 | 2.05 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 21.4 | 32.9 | 168.1 | 12 | 6 | 29.6% | 5.4% | 2.89 | 2.74 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 62.0 | 94.8 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 48.0 | 3 | 5 | 28.4% | 5.6% | 3.56 | 2.85 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 13.6 | 22.5 | 200.0 | 14 | 13 | 26.5% | 6.7% | 3.42 | 3.29 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 59.8 | 86.7 |
| 3 | Logan Gilbert | 48.0 | 3 | 0 | 28.2% | 7.3% | 1.69 | 3.23 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 23.0 | 29.8 | 199.0 | 12 | 7 | 24.8% | 6.5% | 3.12 | 3.56 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 62.4 | 83.3 |
| 4 | George Kirby | 38.0 | 3 | 2 | 26.3% | 2.6% | 3.78 | 2.07 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 10.1 | 20.4 | 186.0 | 13 | 10 | 23.8% | 3.6% | 3.48 | 3.06 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 52.1 | 82.0 |
| 5 | Corbin Burnes | 41.0 | 3 | 1 | 25.8% | 5.7% | 2.63 | 3.70 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 15.6 | 19.3 | 195.0 | 12 | 8 | 26.0% | 6.9% | 3.32 | 3.43 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 58.2 | 81.6 |
| 6 | Pablo López | 37.1 | 3 | 2 | 30.2% | 5.4% | 4.35 | 3.47 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 8.1 | 12.4 | 186.1 | 12 | 9 | 27.9% | 6.2% | 3.67 | 3.33 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 50.3 | 74.6 |
| 7 | Kevin Gausman | 33.0 | 2 | 3 | 21.5% | 5.6% | 3.81 | 3.66 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 179.0 | 12 | 10 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 3.57 | 3.45 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 49.4 | 70.3 |
| 8 | Cole Ragans | 42.1 | 2 | 2 | 29.8% | 8.3% | 3.41 | 2.34 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 12.5 | 22.6 | 169.1 | 10 | 9 | 26.5% | 9.0% | 3.62 | 3.28 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 45.7 | 68.7 |
| 9 | Tanner Houck | 45.0 | 3 | 3 | 25.4% | 3.9% | 2.00 | 2.06 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 20.1 | 32.4 | 160.0 | 11 | 10 | 24.0% | 6.6% | 3.49 | 3.22 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 45.1 | 68.0 |
| 10 | Joe Ryan | 40.1 | 1 | 2 | 28.4% | 3.7% | 3.58 | 2.99 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 9.7 | 16.4 | 178.1 | 10 | 10 | 27.4% | 5.5% | 3.74 | 3.38 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 45.1 | 67.2 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 49.0 | 4 | 3 | 32.1% | 6.6% | 1.65 | 2.29 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 25.8 | 37.9 | 201.0 | 14 | 10 | 27.0% | 6.4% | 3.00 | 3.02 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 69.7 | 102.7 |
| 2 | Tyler Glasnow | 50.0 | 6 | 1 | 32.3% | 6.7% | 2.70 | 2.44 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 22.3 | 33.7 | 172.0 | 16 | 6 | 31.5% | 7.2% | 3.14 | 2.95 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 63.8 | 93.4 |
| 3 | Logan Webb | 46.0 | 3 | 3 | 18.3% | 6.1% | 3.51 | 2.99 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 11.6 | 19.4 | 202.0 | 13 | 11 | 20.1% | 5.6% | 3.43 | 3.16 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 54.0 | 84.1 |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 42.0 | 4 | 2 | 29.8% | 8.7% | 2.57 | 2.48 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 17.8 | 27.3 | 176.0 | 13 | 8 | 29.1% | 9.5% | 3.27 | 3.26 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 58.1 | 82.4 |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | 30.0 | 4 | 1 | 33.3% | 4.4% | 0.90 | 1.55 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 19.9 | 29.7 | 168.0 | 13 | 7 | 24.9% | 6.8% | 3.00 | 3.21 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 58.2 | 82.2 |
| 6 | Shota Imanaga | 34.1 | 5 | 0 | 26.5% | 3.0% | 0.79 | 2.21 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 22.6 | 31.3 | 166.1 | 13 | 6 | 25.5% | 5.6% | 3.03 | 3.25 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 57.4 | 80.6 |
| 7 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 34.0 | 3 | 1 | 30.0% | 5.7% | 2.91 | 2.61 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 13.2 | 20.3 | 172.0 | 14 | 7 | 27.0% | 5.9% | 3.45 | 3.27 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 52.8 | 76.3 |
| 8 | Ranger Suárez | 47.0 | 6 | 0 | 26.9% | 3.5% | 1.72 | 2.80 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 25.1 | 34.0 | 176.0 | 14 | 7 | 22.3% | 6.8% | 3.22 | 3.58 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 55.1 | 73.1 |
| 9 | Chris Sale | 36.1 | 4 | 1 | 29.0% | 4.8% | 3.48 | 3.01 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 12.3 | 18.3 | 156.1 | 13 | 6 | 29.3% | 6.2% | 3.51 | 3.26 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 48.9 | 70.4 |
| 10 | Max Fried | 38.0 | 2 | 1 | 20.4% | 8.9% | 4.25 | 4.09 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 180.0 | 13 | 7 | 21.9% | 7.2% | 3.60 | 3.55 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 47.5 | 66.5 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 49.0 | 4 | 3 | 32.1% | 6.6% | 1.65 | 2.29 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 25.8 | 37.9 | 201.0 | 14 | 10 | 27.0% | 6.4% | 3.00 | 3.02 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 69.7 | 102.7 |
| 2 | Tyler Glasnow | 50.0 | 6 | 1 | 32.3% | 6.7% | 2.70 | 2.44 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 22.3 | 33.7 | 172.0 | 16 | 6 | 31.5% | 7.2% | 3.14 | 2.95 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 63.8 | 93.4 |
| 3 | Logan Webb | 46.0 | 3 | 3 | 18.3% | 6.1% | 3.51 | 2.99 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 11.6 | 19.4 | 202.0 | 13 | 11 | 20.1% | 5.6% | 3.43 | 3.16 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 54.0 | 84.1 |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 42.0 | 4 | 2 | 29.8% | 8.7% | 2.57 | 2.48 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 17.8 | 27.3 | 176.0 | 13 | 8 | 29.1% | 9.5% | 3.27 | 3.26 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 58.1 | 82.4 |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | 30.0 | 4 | 1 | 33.3% | 4.4% | 0.90 | 1.55 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 19.9 | 29.7 | 168.0 | 13 | 7 | 24.9% | 6.8% | 3.00 | 3.21 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 58.2 | 82.2 |
| 6 | Shota Imanaga | 34.1 | 5 | 0 | 26.5% | 3.0% | 0.79 | 2.21 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 22.6 | 31.3 | 166.1 | 13 | 6 | 25.5% | 5.6% | 3.03 | 3.25 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 57.4 | 80.6 |
| 7 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 34.0 | 3 | 1 | 30.0% | 5.7% | 2.91 | 2.61 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 13.2 | 20.3 | 172.0 | 14 | 7 | 27.0% | 5.9% | 3.45 | 3.27 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 52.8 | 76.3 |
| 8 | Ranger Suárez | 47.0 | 6 | 0 | 26.9% | 3.5% | 1.72 | 2.80 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 25.1 | 34.0 | 176.0 | 14 | 7 | 22.3% | 6.8% | 3.22 | 3.58 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 55.1 | 73.1 |
| 9 | Chris Sale | 36.1 | 4 | 1 | 29.0% | 4.8% | 3.48 | 3.01 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 12.3 | 18.3 | 156.1 | 13 | 6 | 29.3% | 6.2% | 3.51 | 3.26 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 48.9 | 70.4 |
| 10 | Max Fried | 38.0 | 2 | 1 | 20.4% | 8.9% | 4.25 | 4.09 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 180.0 | 13 | 7 | 21.9% | 7.2% | 3.60 | 3.55 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 47.5 | 66.5 |
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