Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	55.0	6	0	31.6%	3.8%	1.80	1.94	2.0	2.1	29.1	44.7	168.0	14	7	31.3%	5.5%	2.57	2.51	5.3	5.1	70.6	107.8
2	Luis Castillo	60.0	4	5	26.8%	6.1%	3.29	3.21	1.3	1.0	18.6	27.3	200.0	13	12	26.5%	6.8%	3.46	3.38	4.2	3.7	57.7	82.6
3	Pablo López	50.0	4	3	28.7%	4.0%	3.95	3.18	1.1	0.6	12.8	20.2	185.0	13	11	27.2%	5.7%	3.70	3.27	4.1	3.0	50.1	75.4
4	Corbin Burnes	53.1	3	2	23.3%	6.7%	2.71	3.56	1.0	1.6	18.5	24.1	192.1	12	10	23.7%	7.0%	3.42	3.66	3.5	3.9	53.6	71.6
5	George Kirby	50.0	4	3	25.1%	2.5%	3.59	2.88	1.2	0.9	14.1	23.1	175.0	12	10	23.3%	3.5%	3.60	3.29	3.9	3.2	46.0	69.6
6	Tanner Houck	58.0	3	5	24.3%	4.7%	2.17	2.23	1.9	1.7	23.7	38.3	158.0	10	13	22.7%	6.5%	3.36	3.18	3.4	2.9	45.0	68.3
7	Logan Gilbert	58.1	3	2	27.4%	8.1%	3.09	3.54	0.9	1.4	18.2	24.4	192.1	11	10	25.4%	6.5%	3.61	3.64	3.3	3.4	49.7	68.1
8	Joe Ryan	53.0	2	3	27.4%	3.3%	3.57	3.12	1.2	0.7	13.3	21.4	180.0	10	10	27.8%	5.2%	3.65	3.51	3.7	2.8	47.2	67.0
9	Cole Ragans	56.0	3	3	27.6%	7.8%	3.70	2.57	1.6	1.2	14.4	26.4	174.0	10	10	26.1%	8.2%	3.83	3.28	3.8	2.8	42.0	65.7
10	Yusei Kikuchi	52.0	2	3	26.3%	4.8%	2.60	2.61	1.7	1.7	18.5	29.4	169.0	9	10	26.7%	7.3%	3.57	3.45	3.6	3.2	45.2	65.0

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	55.0	6	0	31.6%	3.8%	1.80	1.94	2.0	2.1	29.1	44.7	168.0	14	7	31.3%	5.5%	2.57	2.51	5.3	5.1	70.6	107.8
2	Luis Castillo	60.0	4	5	26.8%	6.1%	3.29	3.21	1.3	1.0	18.6	27.3	200.0	13	12	26.5%	6.8%	3.46	3.38	4.2	3.7	57.7	82.6
3	Pablo López	50.0	4	3	28.7%	4.0%	3.95	3.18	1.1	0.6	12.8	20.2	185.0	13	11	27.2%	5.7%	3.70	3.27	4.1	3.0	50.1	75.4
4	Corbin Burnes	53.1	3	2	23.3%	6.7%	2.71	3.56	1.0	1.6	18.5	24.1	192.1	12	10	23.7%	7.0%	3.42	3.66	3.5	3.9	53.6	71.6
5	George Kirby	50.0	4	3	25.1%	2.5%	3.59	2.88	1.2	0.9	14.1	23.1	175.0	12	10	23.3%	3.5%	3.60	3.29	3.9	3.2	46.0	69.6
6	Tanner Houck	58.0	3	5	24.3%	4.7%	2.17	2.23	1.9	1.7	23.7	38.3	158.0	10	13	22.7%	6.5%	3.36	3.18	3.4	2.9	45.0	68.3
7	Logan Gilbert	58.1	3	2	27.4%	8.1%	3.09	3.54	0.9	1.4	18.2	24.4	192.1	11	10	25.4%	6.5%	3.61	3.64	3.3	3.4	49.7	68.1
8	Joe Ryan	53.0	2	3	27.4%	3.3%	3.57	3.12	1.2	0.7	13.3	21.4	180.0	10	10	27.8%	5.2%	3.65	3.51	3.7	2.8	47.2	67.0
9	Cole Ragans	56.0	3	3	27.6%	7.8%	3.70	2.57	1.6	1.2	14.4	26.4	174.0	10	10	26.1%	8.2%	3.83	3.28	3.8	2.8	42.0	65.7
10	Yusei Kikuchi	52.0	2	3	26.3%	4.8%	2.60	2.61	1.7	1.7	18.5	29.4	169.0	9	10	26.7%	7.3%	3.57	3.45	3.6	3.2	45.2	65.0

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Zack Wheeler	60.1	5	3	29.1%	7.8%	2.54	2.74	1.8	1.8	25.2	36.9	200.1	15	9	26.6%	6.7%	3.19	3.15	5.2	4.5	65.8	95.8
2	Tyler Glasnow	62.0	6	2	33.8%	6.7%	2.90	2.56	1.8	1.9	25.1	38.4	176.0	15	7	32.7%	7.0%	3.27	2.90	4.4	4.1	61.9	93.1
3	Dylan Cease	55.0	5	3	32.7%	8.2%	2.45	2.36	1.8	1.6	24.3	37.4	187.0	14	10	30.7%	9.0%	3.22	3.13	4.6	4.2	63.6	92.1
4	Chris Sale	49.1	6	1	31.3%	4.1%	2.56	2.45	1.5	1.8	22.7	33.9	172.1	16	6	30.6%	6.1%	3.19	2.96	4.5	4.3	62.5	92.0
5	Logan Webb	59.0	4	4	18.7%	6.8%	3.05	2.96	1.2	1.4	18.2	28.4	197.0	13	11	19.3%	5.6%	3.38	3.14	4.2	4.0	53.3	83.2
6	Ranger Suárez	59.0	8	0	26.5%	4.6%	1.37	2.72	1.8	3.0	34.3	46.0	178.0	16	6	22.2%	6.9%	3.08	3.55	3.4	4.5	60.0	78.8
7	Shota Imanaga	53.1	5	0	27.8%	4.3%	0.85	2.20	1.9	3.1	32.4	46.0	168.1	12	7	25.9%	5.8%	3.10	3.51	3.5	4.3	55.9	74.4
8	Max Fried	49.1	3	2	19.0%	9.8%	3.84	3.96	0.6	0.9	10.5	13.5	188.1	14	8	21.0%	7.1%	3.44	3.50	3.5	3.9	52.4	73.2
9	Sonny Gray	41.0	5	2	31.9%	4.8%	3.07	2.80	1.0	0.8	16.8	24.6	157.0	13	9	27.6%	6.8%	3.38	3.24	3.5	3.0	50.3	72.4
10	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	47.1	4	1	27.5%	5.2%	3.24	3.25	1.0	1.1	15.9	22.5	165.1	13	6	25.8%	5.8%	3.49	3.33	3.6	3.3	49.0	70.5

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Zack Wheeler	60.1	5	3	29.1%	7.8%	2.54	2.74	1.8	1.8	25.2	36.9	200.1	15	9	26.6%	6.7%	3.19	3.15	5.2	4.5	65.8	95.8
2	Tyler Glasnow	62.0	6	2	33.8%	6.7%	2.90	2.56	1.8	1.9	25.1	38.4	176.0	15	7	32.7%	7.0%	3.27	2.90	4.4	4.1	61.9	93.1
3	Dylan Cease	55.0	5	3	32.7%	8.2%	2.45	2.36	1.8	1.6	24.3	37.4	187.0	14	10	30.7%	9.0%	3.22	3.13	4.6	4.2	63.6	92.1
4	Chris Sale	49.1	6	1	31.3%	4.1%	2.56	2.45	1.5	1.8	22.7	33.9	172.1	16	6	30.6%	6.1%	3.19	2.96	4.5	4.3	62.5	92.0
5	Logan Webb	59.0	4	4	18.7%	6.8%	3.05	2.96	1.2	1.4	18.2	28.4	197.0	13	11	19.3%	5.6%	3.38	3.14	4.2	4.0	53.3	83.2
6	Ranger Suárez	59.0	8	0	26.5%	4.6%	1.37	2.72	1.8	3.0	34.3	46.0	178.0	16	6	22.2%	6.9%	3.08	3.55	3.4	4.5	60.0	78.8
7	Shota Imanaga	53.1	5	0	27.8%	4.3%	0.85	2.20	1.9	3.1	32.4	46.0	168.1	12	7	25.9%	5.8%	3.10	3.51	3.5	4.3	55.9	74.4
8	Max Fried	49.1	3	2	19.0%	9.8%	3.84	3.96	0.6	0.9	10.5	13.5	188.1	14	8	21.0%	7.1%	3.44	3.50	3.5	3.9	52.4	73.2
9	Sonny Gray	41.0	5	2	31.9%	4.8%	3.07	2.80	1.0	0.8	16.8	24.6	157.0	13	9	27.6%	6.8%	3.38	3.24	3.5	3.0	50.3	72.4
10	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	47.1	4	1	27.5%	5.2%	3.24	3.25	1.0	1.1	15.9	22.5	165.1	13	6	25.8%	5.8%	3.49	3.33	3.6	3.3	49.0	70.5

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BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG