Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 55.0 | 6 | 0 | 31.6% | 3.8% | 1.80 | 1.94 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 29.1 | 44.7 | 163.0 | 13 | 5 | 28.5% | 4.9% | 2.82 | 2.57 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 62.0 | 96.9 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 60.0 | 4 | 5 | 26.8% | 6.1% | 3.29 | 3.21 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 18.6 | 27.3 | 197.0 | 14 | 11 | 26.2% | 6.7% | 3.33 | 3.26 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 60.7 | 87.9 |
| 3 | Corbin Burnes | 53.1 | 3 | 2 | 23.3% | 6.7% | 2.71 | 3.56 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 18.5 | 24.1 | 194.1 | 11 | 8 | 25.0% | 7.1% | 3.38 | 3.33 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 54.8 | 80.1 |
| 4 | George Kirby | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 25.1% | 2.5% | 3.59 | 2.88 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 14.1 | 23.1 | 183.0 | 14 | 10 | 23.4% | 3.4% | 3.49 | 3.20 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 51.9 | 78.3 |
| 5 | Logan Gilbert | 58.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.09 | 3.54 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 24.4 | 195.1 | 11 | 8 | 24.2% | 7.1% | 3.41 | 3.61 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 53.8 | 73.0 |
| 6 | Tanner Houck | 58.0 | 3 | 5 | 24.3% | 4.7% | 2.17 | 2.23 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 23.7 | 38.3 | 164.0 | 11 | 12 | 24.2% | 6.7% | 3.40 | 3.17 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 47.6 | 71.9 |
| 7 | Pablo López | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 28.7% | 4.0% | 3.95 | 3.18 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 12.8 | 20.2 | 184.0 | 12 | 9 | 27.4% | 5.4% | 3.81 | 3.31 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 46.6 | 71.0 |
| 8 | Seth Lugo | 65.0 | 7 | 1 | 22.7% | 5.1% | 1.80 | 3.20 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 32.3 | 41.7 | 181.0 | 13 | 8 | 21.0% | 6.1% | 3.28 | 3.73 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 53.3 | 68.8 |
| 9 | Framber Valdez | 36.1 | 3 | 1 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 2.98 | 3.31 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 12.2 | 17.0 | 168.1 | 13 | 6 | 21.4% | 7.8% | 3.32 | 3.54 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 50.1 | 68.0 |
| 10 | Jon Gray | 52.0 | 2 | 1 | 24.1% | 6.5% | 2.08 | 2.45 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 21.2 | 33.0 | 162.0 | 8 | 6 | 23.8% | 7.2% | 3.39 | 3.27 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 44.2 | 66.4 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 55.0 | 6 | 0 | 31.6% | 3.8% | 1.80 | 1.94 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 29.1 | 44.7 | 163.0 | 13 | 5 | 28.5% | 4.9% | 2.82 | 2.57 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 62.0 | 96.9 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 60.0 | 4 | 5 | 26.8% | 6.1% | 3.29 | 3.21 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 18.6 | 27.3 | 197.0 | 14 | 11 | 26.2% | 6.7% | 3.33 | 3.26 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 60.7 | 87.9 |
| 3 | Corbin Burnes | 53.1 | 3 | 2 | 23.3% | 6.7% | 2.71 | 3.56 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 18.5 | 24.1 | 194.1 | 11 | 8 | 25.0% | 7.1% | 3.38 | 3.33 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 54.8 | 80.1 |
| 4 | George Kirby | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 25.1% | 2.5% | 3.59 | 2.88 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 14.1 | 23.1 | 183.0 | 14 | 10 | 23.4% | 3.4% | 3.49 | 3.20 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 51.9 | 78.3 |
| 5 | Logan Gilbert | 58.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.09 | 3.54 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 24.4 | 195.1 | 11 | 8 | 24.2% | 7.1% | 3.41 | 3.61 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 53.8 | 73.0 |
| 6 | Tanner Houck | 58.0 | 3 | 5 | 24.3% | 4.7% | 2.17 | 2.23 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 23.7 | 38.3 | 164.0 | 11 | 12 | 24.2% | 6.7% | 3.40 | 3.17 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 47.6 | 71.9 |
| 7 | Pablo López | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 28.7% | 4.0% | 3.95 | 3.18 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 12.8 | 20.2 | 184.0 | 12 | 9 | 27.4% | 5.4% | 3.81 | 3.31 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 46.6 | 71.0 |
| 8 | Seth Lugo | 65.0 | 7 | 1 | 22.7% | 5.1% | 1.80 | 3.20 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 32.3 | 41.7 | 181.0 | 13 | 8 | 21.0% | 6.1% | 3.28 | 3.73 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 53.3 | 68.8 |
| 9 | Framber Valdez | 36.1 | 3 | 1 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 2.98 | 3.31 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 12.2 | 17.0 | 168.1 | 13 | 6 | 21.4% | 7.8% | 3.32 | 3.54 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 50.1 | 68.0 |
| 10 | Jon Gray | 52.0 | 2 | 1 | 24.1% | 6.5% | 2.08 | 2.45 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 21.2 | 33.0 | 162.0 | 8 | 6 | 23.8% | 7.2% | 3.39 | 3.27 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 44.2 | 66.4 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Shota Imanaga | 53.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.8% | 4.3% | 0.85 | 2.20 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 32.4 | 46.0 | 167.1 | 12 | 4 | 26.5% | 5.8% | 2.58 | 2.86 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 65.7 | 96.2 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 60.1 | 5 | 3 | 29.1% | 7.8% | 2.54 | 2.74 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 25.2 | 36.9 | 195.1 | 14 | 9 | 26.4% | 7.2% | 3.27 | 3.06 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 61.9 | 93.2 |
| 3 | Logan Webb | 59.0 | 4 | 4 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 2.96 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 28.4 | 201.0 | 15 | 10 | 19.9% | 5.8% | 3.27 | 3.09 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 59.2 | 90.7 |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 55.0 | 5 | 3 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 2.45 | 2.36 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 24.3 | 37.4 | 177.0 | 14 | 8 | 30.5% | 9.3% | 3.15 | 3.07 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 62.5 | 90.6 |
| 5 | Tyler Glasnow | 62.0 | 6 | 2 | 33.8% | 6.7% | 2.90 | 2.56 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 25.1 | 38.4 | 169.0 | 16 | 6 | 32.0% | 7.1% | 3.20 | 3.04 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 62.2 | 89.6 |
| 6 | Ranger Suárez | 59.0 | 8 | 0 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 1.37 | 2.72 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 34.3 | 46.0 | 174.0 | 15 | 5 | 22.7% | 6.6% | 2.95 | 3.42 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 61.1 | 82.0 |
| 7 | Chris Sale | 49.1 | 6 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.1% | 2.56 | 2.45 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 22.7 | 33.9 | 158.1 | 15 | 5 | 30.4% | 5.7% | 3.24 | 3.09 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 56.7 | 81.4 |
| 8 | Aaron Nola | 58.0 | 5 | 2 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 3.10 | 3.59 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 19.5 | 25.4 | 197.0 | 14 | 9 | 24.6% | 5.6% | 3.75 | 3.40 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 50.3 | 74.4 |
| 9 | Zac Gallen | 50.1 | 5 | 3 | 26.8% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 3.14 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 18.6 | 26.2 | 181.1 | 15 | 10 | 24.2% | 7.0% | 3.38 | 3.61 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 55.7 | 73.6 |
| 10 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 47.1 | 4 | 1 | 27.5% | 5.2% | 3.24 | 3.25 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 15.9 | 22.5 | 177.1 | 14 | 6 | 25.9% | 5.2% | 3.56 | 3.40 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 50.9 | 72.5 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Shota Imanaga | 53.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.8% | 4.3% | 0.85 | 2.20 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 32.4 | 46.0 | 167.1 | 12 | 4 | 26.5% | 5.8% | 2.58 | 2.86 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 65.7 | 96.2 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 60.1 | 5 | 3 | 29.1% | 7.8% | 2.54 | 2.74 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 25.2 | 36.9 | 195.1 | 14 | 9 | 26.4% | 7.2% | 3.27 | 3.06 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 61.9 | 93.2 |
| 3 | Logan Webb | 59.0 | 4 | 4 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 2.96 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 28.4 | 201.0 | 15 | 10 | 19.9% | 5.8% | 3.27 | 3.09 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 59.2 | 90.7 |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 55.0 | 5 | 3 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 2.45 | 2.36 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 24.3 | 37.4 | 177.0 | 14 | 8 | 30.5% | 9.3% | 3.15 | 3.07 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 62.5 | 90.6 |
| 5 | Tyler Glasnow | 62.0 | 6 | 2 | 33.8% | 6.7% | 2.90 | 2.56 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 25.1 | 38.4 | 169.0 | 16 | 6 | 32.0% | 7.1% | 3.20 | 3.04 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 62.2 | 89.6 |
| 6 | Ranger Suárez | 59.0 | 8 | 0 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 1.37 | 2.72 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 34.3 | 46.0 | 174.0 | 15 | 5 | 22.7% | 6.6% | 2.95 | 3.42 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 61.1 | 82.0 |
| 7 | Chris Sale | 49.1 | 6 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.1% | 2.56 | 2.45 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 22.7 | 33.9 | 158.1 | 15 | 5 | 30.4% | 5.7% | 3.24 | 3.09 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 56.7 | 81.4 |
| 8 | Aaron Nola | 58.0 | 5 | 2 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 3.10 | 3.59 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 19.5 | 25.4 | 197.0 | 14 | 9 | 24.6% | 5.6% | 3.75 | 3.40 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 50.3 | 74.4 |
| 9 | Zac Gallen | 50.1 | 5 | 3 | 26.8% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 3.14 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 18.6 | 26.2 | 181.1 | 15 | 10 | 24.2% | 7.0% | 3.38 | 3.61 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 55.7 | 73.6 |
| 10 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 47.1 | 4 | 1 | 27.5% | 5.2% | 3.24 | 3.25 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 15.9 | 22.5 | 177.1 | 14 | 6 | 25.9% | 5.2% | 3.56 | 3.40 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 50.9 | 72.5 |
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