Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 55.0 | 6 | 0 | 31.6% | 3.8% | 1.80 | 1.94 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 29.1 | 44.7 | 171.0 | 14 | 6 | 29.6% | 5.1% | 2.74 | 2.56 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 67.6 | 104.5 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 60.0 | 4 | 5 | 26.8% | 6.1% | 3.29 | 3.21 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 18.6 | 27.3 | 199.0 | 13 | 12 | 26.0% | 6.7% | 3.39 | 3.33 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 58.8 | 84.7 |
| 3 | Corbin Burnes | 53.1 | 3 | 2 | 23.3% | 6.7% | 2.71 | 3.56 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 18.5 | 24.1 | 196.1 | 12 | 9 | 25.1% | 7.1% | 3.30 | 3.45 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 58.2 | 81.1 |
| 4 | Pablo López | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 28.7% | 4.0% | 3.95 | 3.18 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 12.8 | 20.2 | 187.0 | 13 | 10 | 27.5% | 5.5% | 3.61 | 3.21 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 52.5 | 79.3 |
| 5 | George Kirby | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 25.1% | 2.5% | 3.59 | 2.88 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 14.1 | 23.1 | 185.0 | 13 | 10 | 23.6% | 3.4% | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 51.3 | 77.1 |
| 6 | Tanner Houck | 58.0 | 3 | 5 | 24.3% | 4.7% | 2.17 | 2.23 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 23.7 | 38.3 | 170.0 | 11 | 12 | 23.6% | 6.6% | 3.39 | 3.14 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 48.8 | 74.4 |
| 7 | Logan Gilbert | 58.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.09 | 3.54 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 24.4 | 196.1 | 11 | 9 | 24.8% | 6.8% | 3.44 | 3.61 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 53.8 | 73.1 |
| 8 | Framber Valdez | 36.1 | 3 | 1 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 2.98 | 3.31 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 12.2 | 17.0 | 167.1 | 13 | 7 | 22.2% | 7.8% | 3.23 | 3.46 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 52.0 | 71.3 |
| 9 | Seth Lugo | 65.0 | 7 | 1 | 22.7% | 5.1% | 1.80 | 3.20 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 32.3 | 41.7 | 184.0 | 13 | 8 | 21.1% | 6.1% | 3.32 | 3.70 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 53.2 | 69.7 |
| 10 | Cole Ragans | 56.0 | 3 | 3 | 27.6% | 7.8% | 3.70 | 2.57 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 14.4 | 26.4 | 173.0 | 10 | 10 | 25.7% | 8.7% | 3.69 | 3.27 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 44.2 | 67.8 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 55.0 | 6 | 0 | 31.6% | 3.8% | 1.80 | 1.94 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 29.1 | 44.7 | 171.0 | 14 | 6 | 29.6% | 5.1% | 2.74 | 2.56 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 67.6 | 104.5 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 60.0 | 4 | 5 | 26.8% | 6.1% | 3.29 | 3.21 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 18.6 | 27.3 | 199.0 | 13 | 12 | 26.0% | 6.7% | 3.39 | 3.33 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 58.8 | 84.7 |
| 3 | Corbin Burnes | 53.1 | 3 | 2 | 23.3% | 6.7% | 2.71 | 3.56 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 18.5 | 24.1 | 196.1 | 12 | 9 | 25.1% | 7.1% | 3.30 | 3.45 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 58.2 | 81.1 |
| 4 | Pablo López | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 28.7% | 4.0% | 3.95 | 3.18 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 12.8 | 20.2 | 187.0 | 13 | 10 | 27.5% | 5.5% | 3.61 | 3.21 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 52.5 | 79.3 |
| 5 | George Kirby | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 25.1% | 2.5% | 3.59 | 2.88 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 14.1 | 23.1 | 185.0 | 13 | 10 | 23.6% | 3.4% | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 51.3 | 77.1 |
| 6 | Tanner Houck | 58.0 | 3 | 5 | 24.3% | 4.7% | 2.17 | 2.23 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 23.7 | 38.3 | 170.0 | 11 | 12 | 23.6% | 6.6% | 3.39 | 3.14 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 48.8 | 74.4 |
| 7 | Logan Gilbert | 58.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.09 | 3.54 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 24.4 | 196.1 | 11 | 9 | 24.8% | 6.8% | 3.44 | 3.61 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 53.8 | 73.1 |
| 8 | Framber Valdez | 36.1 | 3 | 1 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 2.98 | 3.31 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 12.2 | 17.0 | 167.1 | 13 | 7 | 22.2% | 7.8% | 3.23 | 3.46 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 52.0 | 71.3 |
| 9 | Seth Lugo | 65.0 | 7 | 1 | 22.7% | 5.1% | 1.80 | 3.20 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 32.3 | 41.7 | 184.0 | 13 | 8 | 21.1% | 6.1% | 3.32 | 3.70 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 53.2 | 69.7 |
| 10 | Cole Ragans | 56.0 | 3 | 3 | 27.6% | 7.8% | 3.70 | 2.57 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 14.4 | 26.4 | 173.0 | 10 | 10 | 25.7% | 8.7% | 3.69 | 3.27 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 44.2 | 67.8 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 60.1 | 5 | 3 | 29.1% | 7.8% | 2.54 | 2.74 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 25.2 | 36.9 | 198.1 | 14 | 9 | 26.4% | 6.9% | 3.18 | 3.14 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 64.6 | 94.6 |
| 2 | Shota Imanaga | 53.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.8% | 4.3% | 0.85 | 2.20 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 32.4 | 46.0 | 174.1 | 12 | 5 | 26.2% | 5.8% | 2.69 | 3.05 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 65.7 | 93.7 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 62.0 | 6 | 2 | 33.8% | 6.7% | 2.90 | 2.56 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 25.1 | 38.4 | 174.0 | 15 | 7 | 32.1% | 7.1% | 3.16 | 2.94 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 63.3 | 93.5 |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 55.0 | 5 | 3 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 2.45 | 2.36 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 24.3 | 37.4 | 180.0 | 14 | 9 | 30.3% | 9.3% | 3.15 | 3.14 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 63.2 | 90.4 |
| 5 | Chris Sale | 49.1 | 6 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.1% | 2.56 | 2.45 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 22.7 | 33.9 | 162.1 | 15 | 6 | 30.4% | 5.8% | 3.11 | 2.95 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 60.1 | 88.1 |
| 6 | Logan Webb | 59.0 | 4 | 4 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 2.96 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 28.4 | 201.0 | 14 | 11 | 20.1% | 5.9% | 3.31 | 3.14 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 57.5 | 87.9 |
| 7 | Ranger Suárez | 59.0 | 8 | 0 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 1.37 | 2.72 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 34.3 | 46.0 | 177.0 | 15 | 6 | 22.6% | 6.8% | 2.95 | 3.43 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 61.8 | 82.9 |
| 8 | Aaron Nola | 58.0 | 5 | 2 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 3.10 | 3.59 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 19.5 | 25.4 | 198.0 | 14 | 9 | 24.3% | 5.7% | 3.64 | 3.49 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 52.7 | 75.0 |
| 9 | Zac Gallen | 50.1 | 5 | 3 | 26.8% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 3.14 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 18.6 | 26.2 | 182.1 | 14 | 10 | 24.8% | 6.8% | 3.46 | 3.46 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 53.8 | 74.9 |
| 10 | Sonny Gray | 41.0 | 5 | 2 | 31.9% | 4.8% | 3.07 | 2.80 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 16.8 | 24.6 | 168.0 | 13 | 8 | 25.3% | 6.6% | 3.37 | 3.45 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 51.6 | 71.3 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 60.1 | 5 | 3 | 29.1% | 7.8% | 2.54 | 2.74 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 25.2 | 36.9 | 198.1 | 14 | 9 | 26.4% | 6.9% | 3.18 | 3.14 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 64.6 | 94.6 |
| 2 | Shota Imanaga | 53.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.8% | 4.3% | 0.85 | 2.20 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 32.4 | 46.0 | 174.1 | 12 | 5 | 26.2% | 5.8% | 2.69 | 3.05 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 65.7 | 93.7 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 62.0 | 6 | 2 | 33.8% | 6.7% | 2.90 | 2.56 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 25.1 | 38.4 | 174.0 | 15 | 7 | 32.1% | 7.1% | 3.16 | 2.94 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 63.3 | 93.5 |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 55.0 | 5 | 3 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 2.45 | 2.36 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 24.3 | 37.4 | 180.0 | 14 | 9 | 30.3% | 9.3% | 3.15 | 3.14 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 63.2 | 90.4 |
| 5 | Chris Sale | 49.1 | 6 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.1% | 2.56 | 2.45 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 22.7 | 33.9 | 162.1 | 15 | 6 | 30.4% | 5.8% | 3.11 | 2.95 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 60.1 | 88.1 |
| 6 | Logan Webb | 59.0 | 4 | 4 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 2.96 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 28.4 | 201.0 | 14 | 11 | 20.1% | 5.9% | 3.31 | 3.14 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 57.5 | 87.9 |
| 7 | Ranger Suárez | 59.0 | 8 | 0 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 1.37 | 2.72 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 34.3 | 46.0 | 177.0 | 15 | 6 | 22.6% | 6.8% | 2.95 | 3.43 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 61.8 | 82.9 |
| 8 | Aaron Nola | 58.0 | 5 | 2 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 3.10 | 3.59 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 19.5 | 25.4 | 198.0 | 14 | 9 | 24.3% | 5.7% | 3.64 | 3.49 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 52.7 | 75.0 |
| 9 | Zac Gallen | 50.1 | 5 | 3 | 26.8% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 3.14 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 18.6 | 26.2 | 182.1 | 14 | 10 | 24.8% | 6.8% | 3.46 | 3.46 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 53.8 | 74.9 |
| 10 | Sonny Gray | 41.0 | 5 | 2 | 31.9% | 4.8% | 3.07 | 2.80 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 16.8 | 24.6 | 168.0 | 13 | 8 | 25.3% | 6.6% | 3.37 | 3.45 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 51.6 | 71.3 |
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