Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 55.0 | 6 | 0 | 31.6% | 3.8% | 1.80 | 1.94 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 29.1 | 44.7 | 180.0 | 14 | 6 | 30.4% | 5.5% | 2.60 | 2.56 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 73.6 | 112.4 |
| 2 | Pablo López | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 28.7% | 4.0% | 3.95 | 3.18 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 12.8 | 20.2 | 188.0 | 13 | 10 | 27.5% | 5.7% | 3.44 | 3.23 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 56.1 | 82.6 |
| 3 | Luis Castillo | 60.0 | 4 | 5 | 26.8% | 6.1% | 3.29 | 3.21 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 18.6 | 27.3 | 199.0 | 13 | 13 | 25.7% | 6.8% | 3.44 | 3.43 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 57.7 | 81.3 |
| 4 | Corbin Burnes | 53.1 | 3 | 2 | 23.3% | 6.7% | 2.71 | 3.56 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 18.5 | 24.1 | 197.1 | 12 | 9 | 25.1% | 7.2% | 3.29 | 3.51 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 58.9 | 80.6 |
| 5 | George Kirby | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 25.1% | 2.5% | 3.59 | 2.88 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 14.1 | 23.1 | 186.0 | 12 | 11 | 23.8% | 3.6% | 3.48 | 3.33 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 51.0 | 75.3 |
| 6 | Tanner Houck | 58.0 | 3 | 5 | 24.3% | 4.7% | 2.17 | 2.23 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 23.7 | 38.3 | 176.0 | 10 | 12 | 23.1% | 6.6% | 3.32 | 3.21 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 50.0 | 75.2 |
| 7 | Framber Valdez | 36.1 | 3 | 1 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 2.98 | 3.31 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 12.2 | 17.0 | 166.1 | 12 | 7 | 23.1% | 7.7% | 3.19 | 3.32 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 51.9 | 73.7 |
| 8 | Joe Ryan | 53.0 | 2 | 3 | 27.4% | 3.3% | 3.57 | 3.12 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 13.3 | 21.4 | 182.0 | 10 | 10 | 27.8% | 5.1% | 3.56 | 3.32 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 49.6 | 73.5 |
| 9 | Yusei Kikuchi | 52.0 | 2 | 3 | 26.3% | 4.8% | 2.60 | 2.61 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 18.5 | 29.4 | 167.0 | 10 | 10 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 3.23 | 3.35 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 51.3 | 72.7 |
| 10 | Logan Gilbert | 58.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.09 | 3.54 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 24.4 | 194.1 | 11 | 10 | 25.5% | 6.6% | 3.48 | 3.62 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 53.1 | 72.0 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 55.0 | 6 | 0 | 31.6% | 3.8% | 1.80 | 1.94 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 29.1 | 44.7 | 180.0 | 14 | 6 | 30.4% | 5.5% | 2.60 | 2.56 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 73.6 | 112.4 |
| 2 | Pablo López | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 28.7% | 4.0% | 3.95 | 3.18 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 12.8 | 20.2 | 188.0 | 13 | 10 | 27.5% | 5.7% | 3.44 | 3.23 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 56.1 | 82.6 |
| 3 | Luis Castillo | 60.0 | 4 | 5 | 26.8% | 6.1% | 3.29 | 3.21 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 18.6 | 27.3 | 199.0 | 13 | 13 | 25.7% | 6.8% | 3.44 | 3.43 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 57.7 | 81.3 |
| 4 | Corbin Burnes | 53.1 | 3 | 2 | 23.3% | 6.7% | 2.71 | 3.56 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 18.5 | 24.1 | 197.1 | 12 | 9 | 25.1% | 7.2% | 3.29 | 3.51 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 58.9 | 80.6 |
| 5 | George Kirby | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 25.1% | 2.5% | 3.59 | 2.88 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 14.1 | 23.1 | 186.0 | 12 | 11 | 23.8% | 3.6% | 3.48 | 3.33 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 51.0 | 75.3 |
| 6 | Tanner Houck | 58.0 | 3 | 5 | 24.3% | 4.7% | 2.17 | 2.23 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 23.7 | 38.3 | 176.0 | 10 | 12 | 23.1% | 6.6% | 3.32 | 3.21 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 50.0 | 75.2 |
| 7 | Framber Valdez | 36.1 | 3 | 1 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 2.98 | 3.31 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 12.2 | 17.0 | 166.1 | 12 | 7 | 23.1% | 7.7% | 3.19 | 3.32 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 51.9 | 73.7 |
| 8 | Joe Ryan | 53.0 | 2 | 3 | 27.4% | 3.3% | 3.57 | 3.12 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 13.3 | 21.4 | 182.0 | 10 | 10 | 27.8% | 5.1% | 3.56 | 3.32 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 49.6 | 73.5 |
| 9 | Yusei Kikuchi | 52.0 | 2 | 3 | 26.3% | 4.8% | 2.60 | 2.61 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 18.5 | 29.4 | 167.0 | 10 | 10 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 3.23 | 3.35 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 51.3 | 72.7 |
| 10 | Logan Gilbert | 58.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.09 | 3.54 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 24.4 | 194.1 | 11 | 10 | 25.5% | 6.6% | 3.48 | 3.62 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 53.1 | 72.0 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tyler Glasnow | 62.0 | 6 | 2 | 33.8% | 6.7% | 2.90 | 2.56 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 25.1 | 38.4 | 178.0 | 15 | 7 | 32.4% | 7.0% | 3.08 | 2.84 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 66.0 | 98.8 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 60.1 | 5 | 3 | 29.1% | 7.8% | 2.54 | 2.74 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 25.2 | 36.9 | 200.1 | 14 | 10 | 26.2% | 6.6% | 3.10 | 3.18 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 66.5 | 95.8 |
| 3 | Chris Sale | 49.1 | 6 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.1% | 2.56 | 2.45 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 22.7 | 33.9 | 166.1 | 15 | 6 | 30.4% | 5.7% | 3.03 | 2.88 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 62.5 | 92.3 |
| 4 | Shota Imanaga | 53.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.8% | 4.3% | 0.85 | 2.20 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 32.4 | 46.0 | 181.1 | 13 | 7 | 25.9% | 5.7% | 2.78 | 3.23 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 66.7 | 92.2 |
| 5 | Dylan Cease | 55.0 | 5 | 3 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 2.45 | 2.36 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 24.3 | 37.4 | 183.0 | 13 | 10 | 30.2% | 9.2% | 3.15 | 3.12 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 62.9 | 91.0 |
| 6 | Logan Webb | 59.0 | 4 | 4 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 2.96 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 28.4 | 201.0 | 12 | 12 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 3.31 | 3.14 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 55.5 | 85.9 |
| 7 | Ranger Suárez | 59.0 | 8 | 0 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 1.37 | 2.72 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 34.3 | 46.0 | 181.0 | 16 | 7 | 22.5% | 6.9% | 2.93 | 3.43 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 64.0 | 85.5 |
| 8 | Sonny Gray | 41.0 | 5 | 2 | 31.9% | 4.8% | 3.07 | 2.80 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 16.8 | 24.6 | 171.0 | 14 | 9 | 25.9% | 6.8% | 3.42 | 3.31 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 52.9 | 75.6 |
| 9 | Zac Gallen | 50.1 | 5 | 3 | 26.8% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 3.14 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 18.6 | 26.2 | 183.1 | 13 | 10 | 25.3% | 6.7% | 3.49 | 3.39 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 52.9 | 75.5 |
| 10 | Aaron Nola | 58.0 | 5 | 2 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 3.10 | 3.59 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 19.5 | 25.4 | 198.0 | 14 | 10 | 23.9% | 5.9% | 3.55 | 3.61 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 54.4 | 73.9 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tyler Glasnow | 62.0 | 6 | 2 | 33.8% | 6.7% | 2.90 | 2.56 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 25.1 | 38.4 | 178.0 | 15 | 7 | 32.4% | 7.0% | 3.08 | 2.84 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 66.0 | 98.8 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 60.1 | 5 | 3 | 29.1% | 7.8% | 2.54 | 2.74 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 25.2 | 36.9 | 200.1 | 14 | 10 | 26.2% | 6.6% | 3.10 | 3.18 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 66.5 | 95.8 |
| 3 | Chris Sale | 49.1 | 6 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.1% | 2.56 | 2.45 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 22.7 | 33.9 | 166.1 | 15 | 6 | 30.4% | 5.7% | 3.03 | 2.88 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 62.5 | 92.3 |
| 4 | Shota Imanaga | 53.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.8% | 4.3% | 0.85 | 2.20 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 32.4 | 46.0 | 181.1 | 13 | 7 | 25.9% | 5.7% | 2.78 | 3.23 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 66.7 | 92.2 |
| 5 | Dylan Cease | 55.0 | 5 | 3 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 2.45 | 2.36 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 24.3 | 37.4 | 183.0 | 13 | 10 | 30.2% | 9.2% | 3.15 | 3.12 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 62.9 | 91.0 |
| 6 | Logan Webb | 59.0 | 4 | 4 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 2.96 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 28.4 | 201.0 | 12 | 12 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 3.31 | 3.14 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 55.5 | 85.9 |
| 7 | Ranger Suárez | 59.0 | 8 | 0 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 1.37 | 2.72 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 34.3 | 46.0 | 181.0 | 16 | 7 | 22.5% | 6.9% | 2.93 | 3.43 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 64.0 | 85.5 |
| 8 | Sonny Gray | 41.0 | 5 | 2 | 31.9% | 4.8% | 3.07 | 2.80 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 16.8 | 24.6 | 171.0 | 14 | 9 | 25.9% | 6.8% | 3.42 | 3.31 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 52.9 | 75.6 |
| 9 | Zac Gallen | 50.1 | 5 | 3 | 26.8% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 3.14 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 18.6 | 26.2 | 183.1 | 13 | 10 | 25.3% | 6.7% | 3.49 | 3.39 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 52.9 | 75.5 |
| 10 | Aaron Nola | 58.0 | 5 | 2 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 3.10 | 3.59 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 19.5 | 25.4 | 198.0 | 14 | 10 | 23.9% | 5.9% | 3.55 | 3.61 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 54.4 | 73.9 |
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